MANAGING THE COLORADO RIVER IN A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT AN EVALUATION OF INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a summary of the findings and recommendations of the studies of severe, sustained drought reported in this special issue. The management facilities and institutions were found to be effective in protecting consumptive water users against drought, but much less effective in protecting nonconsumptive uses. Changes in intrastate water management were found to be effective in reducing the monetary value of damages, through reallocating shortages to low-valued uses, while only water banking and water marketing, among the possible interstate rule changes, were similarly effective. Players representing the basin states and the federal government in three gaming experiments were unable to agree upon and effect major changes in operating rules. The conclusions are (1) that nonconsumptive water uses are highly vulnerable to drought, (2) that consumptive uses are well-protected, (3) that drought risk is greatest in the Upper Basin, (4) that the Lower Basin suffers from chronic water shortage but bears little drought risk, (5) that opportunities exist for win-win rule changes, (6) that such rule changes are extremely difficult to make, and (7) that intrastate drought management is very effective ^m in reducing potential damages.     

Comparative Population Genetic Structure of the Rare Woodland Shrub Daviesia suaveolens and Its Common Congener D. mimosoides

Genetic (allozyme) variation and population genetic structure of the rare shrub Daviesia suaveolens , found in only a few large populations on the eastern escarpment of the southern tablelands of New South Wales, were compared to those of its abundant and widespread relative D. mimosoides at both spatially equivalent and rangewide scales. We hypothesized that the rare species is genetically depauperate relative to the common one. We also generated baseline data on D. suaveolens to provide management recommendations for its conservation. Both species had high variation relative to other widespread woody angiosperms. Rangewide, the rare species exhibited lower species-level genetic variation than its common relative but a similar level of variation to that found in D. mimosoides over an equivalent spatial scale. Population-level genetic variation was similar for the two species. Over its small geographic range, D. suaveolens populations were three times as genetically differentiated as D. mimosoides over the same scale, showing a clear northsouth genetic disjunction and as much interpopulation divergence as the common species exhibited rangewide. These results confirm that not all types of rarity have the same genetic implications. Conservation strategies for D. suaveolens need not be concerned about low population-level variation unless populations become significantly smaller than is currently typical. Of more importance is to maintain the high interpopulation differentiation by conserving populations from both the north and south of the species' range.     

Atmospheric concentrations of PM2.5 trace elements in the Seoul urban area of South Korea

Fine particles (PM2.5) were collected during all four seasons, from April 2001 to February 2002, in Seoul, South Korea, using an annular denuder system. Elemental compositions of ambient PM2.5 were analyzed using the proton-induced X-ray emission method. The greatest contributors (> or = 2%) to the PM2.5 mass were sulfur (S), silicon (Si), chlorine (Cl), aluminum (Al), and iron (Fe) in the spring; S in the summer; and S and Cl in the fall. S, Cl, and Si were the major elements in the winter. S was the most abundant species among the elements, ranging from 5.3 to 7.9%, followed by Si and Cl. From analysis of variance, PM2.5 mass, Al, Si, potassium, calcium, and Fe showed significant seasonal differences during the four seasons (p < 0.001). Enrichment factor (EF) analysis was carried out to identify the sources affecting the aerosol in the Seoul area. On the basis of the mean EF values, elemental S, copper, zinc, and lead may be emitted from anthropogenic sources (EF > 50). Elemental Al, Si, titanium, and Fe may be emitted from crustal sources (EF < 3). Additionally, a correlation analysis was carried out for source identification. The results of the correlation analysis were confirmed by the results of the EF analysis.     

Using ‘found’ data to augment a probability sample: Procedure and case study

While probability sampling has the advantage of permitting unbiased population estimates, many past and existing monitoring schemes do not employ probability sampling. We describe and demonstrate a general procedure for augmenting an existing probability sample with data from nonprobability-based surveys (found data). The procedure, first proposed by Overton (1990), uses sampling frame attributes to group the probability and found samples into similar subsets. Subsequently, this similarity is assumed to reflect the representativeness of the found sample for the matching subpopulation. Two methods of establishing similarity and producing estimates are described: pseudo-random and calibration. The pseudo-random method is used when the found sample can contribute additional information on variables already measured for the probability sample, thus increasing the effective sample size. The calibration method is used when the found sample contributes information that is unique to the found observations. For either approach, the found sample data yield observations that are treated as a probability sample, and population estimates are made according to a probability estimation protocol. To demonstrate these approaches, we applied them to found and probability samples of stream discharge data for the southeastern US.     

Seasonal and interannual variability in krill (Nyctiphanes australis) stocks and their relationship to the fishery for jack mackerel (Trachurus declivis) off eastern Tasmania,Australia

Nyctiphanes australis was collected from the east coast of Tasmania between January 1989 and April 1991. Density and biomass were significantly higher in autumn than in any other season. The population was dominated by juveniles, except in autumn and spring 1990 when there was a significant increase in the proportion of adults. Our data indicated that N. australis does not regularly migrate vertically and that it forms aggregations of particular size classes which vary both temporally and spatially. Stomach fullness in Trachurus declivis, a major predator of N. australis, rose to a peak in autumn when N. australis stocks and the monthly catches by the fishery for T. declivis were at their highest. The stomachs of T. declivis were also dominated by adult size classes during this period. The virtual absence of N. australis in 1989 and the subsequent failure of the T. declivis fishery in that year underline the interrelationship between these two species. We suggest that this was the result of an influx of subtropical northern waters low in nutrients onto the shelf, which corresponded with a major La Niña cold event at that time.     

Social and ecological influences on activity budgets of vervet monkeys,and their implications for group living

Summary Activity patterns were documented over a 20-month period in six groups of vervet monkeys (Cercopithecus aethiops) in Amboseli National Park, Kenya. Group size varied both among groups and within groups through time. The home ranges of two groups were located in Acacia xanthophloea habitat whereas those of four adjacent groups were located in A. tortilis habitat. Repeated measures analysis of variance, three-way analysis of variance, and meta-analysis of group size effects were carried out on feeding, moving, resting, scanning, allo-grooming, and other behavior. Time spent feeding varied seasonally, peaking during periods when A. tortilis seeds were eaten. However, time spent feeding did not vary within or among groups, or between habitats, males and females, or dominants and subordinates. Males spend more time scanning and less time allo-grooming than females, and high-ranking individuals of both sexes spent more time scanning than low-ranking individuals. Among females, subordinates spent more time moving, whereas among males, dominants spent more time moving. Groups living in A. xanthophloea habitat spent more time moving and allo-grooming than groups in A. tortilis habitat but this may have been confounded by the fact that these two groups were on average larger than the others. Significant differences in activity budgets among groups demonstrate that activity patterns observed in one group are not always readily generalized to other groups even when they come from the same population. Group size analyses examined potential costs and benefits of group living. Increased intragroup competition, measured by time spent moving and feeding, was only weakly evident in larger groups. Individuals in larger groups allo-groomed more than individuals in smaller groups. Self-grooming also increased in larger groups. Individuals in larger groups spent less time scanning than individuals in smaller groups, but there was more scanning per group in larger groups than in smaller groups. Correspondence to: L.A. Isbell