Nonparametric Monte Carlo Simulation for Flood Frequency Curve Derivation: An Application to a Korean Watershed1

Abstract: A mix of causative mechanisms may be responsible for flood at a site. Floods may be caused because of extreme rainfall or rain on other rainfall events. The statistical attributes of these events differ according to the watershed characteristics and the causes. Traditional methods of flood frequency analysis are only adequate for specific situations. Also, to address the uncertainty of flood frequency estimates for hydraulic structures, a series of probabilistic analyses of rainfall‐runoff and flow routing models, and their associated inputs, are used. This is a complex problem in that the probability distributions of multiple independent and derived random variables need to be estimated to evaluate the probability of floods. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to develop a flood frequency curve derivation method driven by multiple random variables and to develop a tool that can consider the uncertainties of design floods. This study focuses on developing a flood frequency curve based on nonparametric statistical methods for the estimation of probabilities of rare floods that are more appropriate in Korea. To derive the frequency curve, rainfall generation using the nonparametric kernel density estimation approach is proposed. Many flood events are simulated by nonparametric Monte Carlo simulations coupled with the center Latin hypercube sampling method to estimate the associated uncertainty. This study applies the methods described to a Korean watershed. The results provide higher physical appropriateness and reasonable estimates of design flood.     

WATER MANAGEMENT AND N,P LOSSES FROM PADDY FIELDS IN SOUTHERN KOREA1

ABSTRACT: Assessment and control of nutrient losses from paddy fields is important to protect water quality of lakes and streams in Korea. A four‐year field study was carried out to investigate water management practices and losses of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in rice paddy irrigation fields in southern Korea. The amount and water quality of rainfall, irrigation, surface drainage, and infiltration were measured and analyzed to estimate inputs and losses of N and P. The observed irrigation amount surpassed consumptive use, and approximately 52 to 69 percent of inflow (precipitation plus irrigation) was lost to surface drainage. Field data showed that significant amounts of irrigation water and rainfall were not effectively used for rice paddy culture. Water quality data indicated that drainage from paddy fields could degrade the recipient water environment. The nutrient balance indicated that significant amounts of nutrients (29.5 percent of total N and 8.6 percent of total P compared to input) were lost through surface drainage. Furthermore, up to half the nutrient losses occurred during nonstorm periods. The study results indicate that inadequate water management influences N and P losses during both storm and nonstorm periods. Proper water management is required to reduce nutrient losses through surface drainage from paddy fields; this includes such measures as minimum irrigation, effective use of rainfall, adoption of proper drainage outlet structures, and minimized forced surface drainage.     

The indecisive role of the market in China’s SO2 and COD emissions trading

Governmental intervention is essential to combat environmental pollution, a phenomenon classically explained as market failure, while market-based environmental policy instruments have provided cost-effective alternatives. By examining five pilot air pollution (sulfur dioxide) and water pollution (chemical oxygen demand) trading schemes in China through a market-based theoretical framework and extensive empirical analysis, this research analyzes where a state-market boundary is defined, whether the market is performing effectively, and, critically, what leads to underperformance. Constrained by policy design, policy conflicts, and excessive state intervention, the market has not played an effective and ‘decisive’ role, resulting in low market thickness for participants and transactions, market congestion on prices, and inadequate market safety for genuine emissions trading. Better emissions trading for conventional pollutants and CO₂ requires better market-oriented rules, improved policy coordination, and stronger implementation while minimizing state intervention.     

Risk factors for mortality during the 2002 landslides in Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia

This study examines health effects resulting from landslides in Chuuk during Tropical Storm Chata'an in July 2002, and suggests strategies to prevent future mortality. In August 2002, we conducted a cross-sectional survey to identify risk factors for mortality during landslides, which included 52 survivors and 40 surrogates for 43 decedents to identify risk factors for death. Findings suggest that 1) females had a higher mortality rate from this event than males, and 2) children aged 5–14 years had a 10-fold increase in mortality when compared with annual mortality rates from all causes. Awareness of landslides occurring elsewhere and knowledge of natural warning signs were significantly associated with lower risks of death; being outside during landslides was not associated with reduced mortality. In Chuuk, improving communication systems during tropical storms and increasing knowledge of natural warnings can reduce the risk for mortality during landslides.     

Numerical and field investigation of enhanced in situ denitrification in a shallow-zone well-to-well recirculation system

This study investigated efficiency of in situ enhanced biological denitrification of nitrate-contaminated groundwater which employs a well-to-well circulation in a shallow zone where oxygen might give an adverse affect on the denitrification processes. The numerical model developed for the efficiency test included sequential aerobic and nitrate-based respiration, multi-Monod kinetics of reactive components, growth and decay of biomass, and denitrification inhibition associated with the presence of oxygen. Moreover, reaction kinetics for production of toxic intermediates such as nitrite and nitrous oxide were also included in the model. The developed model was applied to the analysis of enhanced in situ denitrification using an injection/extraction well pair. To evaluate the relative remediation effectiveness, comparisons were made between a continuous fumarate injection test (CFIT) system and a pulsed fumarate injection test (PFIT) system, where both systems had the same total fumarate mass injected into the aquifer. The PFIT system was preferable to the CFIT system because of the high possibility of occurrence of clogging in the latter case at the injection well, with no other significant advantages found in either the CFIT or the PFIT system. Accordingly, this developed numerical model is useful to predict and evaluate an in situ bioremediation by denitrification in aquifers.     

Historical trends of trace metals in a sediment core from a contaminated tidal salt marsh in San Francisco Bay

Sedimentation of metals preserves historical records of contaminant input from local and regional sources, and measurement of metals in sediment cores can provide information for reconstruction of historical changes in regional water and sediment quality. Sediment core was collected from Stege Marsh located in central San Francisco Bay (California, USA) to investigate the historical input of trace metals. Aluminum-normalized enrichment factors indicate that inputs from anthropogenic sources were predominant over natural input for Ag, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Among these, lead was the most anthropogenically impacted metal with enrichment factors ranging from 32 to 108. Depth profiles and coefficients of variation show that As, Cd, and Se were also influenced by anthropogenic input. The levels of these anthropogenically impacted metals decline gradually towards the surface due to regulation of the use of leaded gasoline, municipal and industrial wastewater discharge control, and closure of point sources on the upland of Stege Marsh. Although trace metal contamination is expected to be continuously declining, the rates of decline have slowed down. For lead, it is estimated to take 44, 82, and 153 years to decrease to probable effects level (112 μg/g), the San Francisco Bay ambient surface sediment level (43.2 μg/g), and the local baseline levels (5 μg/g), respectively. Some metals in surface sediments (0–6 cm) are still higher than sediment quality guidelines such as the probable effects level. To further facilitate the recovery of sediment quality, more efficient management plans need to be developed and implemented to control trace metals from non-point sources such as stormwater runoff.     

Natural Resource Assessment: An Approach to Science Based Planning in National Parks

We conducted a natural resource assessment at two national parks, New River Gorge National River and Shenandoah National Park, to help meet the goals of the Natural Resource Challenge—a program to help strengthen natural resource management at national parks. We met this challenge by synthesizing and interpreting natural resource information for planning purposes and we identified information gaps and natural significance of resources. We identified a variety of natural resources at both parks as being globally and/or nationally significant, including large expanses of unfragmented, mixed-mesophytic forests that qualify for wilderness protection, rare plant communities, diverse assemblages of neotropical migratory birds and salamanders, and outstanding aquatic recreational resources. In addition, these parks function, in part, as ecological reserves for plants in and wildlife. With these significant natural resources in mind, we also developed a suite of natural resource management recommendations in light of increasing threats from within and outside park boundaries. We hope that our approach can provide a blueprint for natural resource conservation at publically owned lands.     

Sustainable Water Resources Management in a Conflict Resolution Framework1

Abstract: A decision support system for sustainable water resources management in a water conflict resolution framework is developed to identify and evaluate a range of acceptable alternatives for the Geum River Basin in Korea and to facilitate strategies that will result in sustainable water resource management. Working with stakeholders in a “shared vision modeling” framework, sustainable management strategies are created to illustrate system tradeoffs as well as long‐term system planning. A multi‐criterion decision‐making (MCDM) approach using subjective scales is utilized to evaluate the complex water resource allocation and management tradeoffs between stakeholders and system objectives. The procedures used in this study include the development of a “shared vision model,” a simulated decision‐making support system (as a tool for sustainable water management strategies associated with water conflicts, management options, and planning criteria), and the application of MCDM techniques for evaluating alternatives provided by the model. The research results demonstrate the utility of the sustainable water resource management model in aid of MCDM techniques in facilitating flexibility during initial stages of alternative identification and evaluation in a basin suffering from severe water conflicts.