区域规划环境影响跟踪评价的理论研究

随着环境影响评价制度的深入实施,其实施领域已由项目环评向区域环评和规划环评转变,评价内容也由广泛实施的预测评价向后评价和跟踪评价转变。然而,对于区域规划环评的评价层次、评价程序和评价内容,目前还没有明晰的认识;同时,对于促进规划环评有效实施的跟踪评价,其相关的理论和实践研究几乎没有。文中就此问题作了深入探讨。     

盐生植物种子萌发的特点及其生理基础

用NaCl和等渗PEG处理8种盐生植物和2种非盐生植物种子。结果表明：NaCl和等渗PEG对所有种子的萌发率都产生抑制作用,而且PEG（对盐生植物）的抑制程度大于等渗NaCl,NaCl对盐生植物萌发的抑制水平随处理时间延长而降低,但对非盐生植物种子萌发率的抑制程度增大到8d以后即不再增大。另外,在0．6MPaNaCl下,随处理时间延长,盐地碱蓬和琐琐种子的α－淀粉酶活性不断提高,SOD活性基本不变,但小麦和大麦种子的α－淀粉酶活性在处理8d后接近最大值,SOD活性显著下降,这些结果说明,影响盐生植物种子萌发率的因素与渗透胁迫,种子内部一些关键酶的活性及萌发过程中大量吸收和积累盐离子等都有关系。图6参19     

洪灾对柳州可持续发展的影响及减灾对策

通过对柳州市洪灾特点的分析,探讨了洪灾对柳州市经济、社会可持续发展的制约作用,提出洪灾的治理必须走可发展的道路,采用工程措施和非工程措施相结合的对策。     

Effects of coal spoil amendment on heavy metal accumulation and physiological aspects of ryegrass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lolium perenne</Emphasis> L.) growing in copper mine tailings

Copper mine tailings pose many threats to the surrounding environment and human health, and thus, their remediation is fundamental. Coal spoil is the waste by-product of coal mining and characterized by low levels of metals, high content of organic matter, and many essential microelements. This study was designed to evaluate the role of coal spoil on heavy uptake and physiological responses of Lolium perenne L. grown in copper mine tailings amended with coal spoil at rates of 0, 0.5, 1, 5, 10, and 20%. The results showed that applying coal spoil to copper mine tailings decreased the diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA)-extractable Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn contents in tailings and reduced those metal contents in both roots and shoots of the plant. However, application of coal spoil increased the DTPA-extractable Cr concentration in tailings and also increased Cr uptake and accumulation by Lolium perenne L. The statistical analysis of physiological parameters indicated that chlorophyll and carotenoid increased at the lower amendments of coal spoil followed by a decrease compared to their respective controls. Protein content was enhanced at all the coal spoil amendments. When treated with coal spoil, the activities of superoxide dismutases (SOD), peroxidase (POD), and catalase (CAT) responded differently. CAT activity was inhibited, but POD activity was increased with increasing amendment ratio of coal spoil. SOD activity increased up to 1% coal spoil followed by a decrease. Overall, the addition of coal spoil decreased the oxidative stress in Lolium perenne L., reflected by the reduction in malondialdehyde (MDA) contents in the plant. It is concluded that coal spoil has the potential to stabilize most metals studied in copper mine tailings and ameliorate the harmful effects in Lolium perenne L. through changing the physiological attributes of the plant grown in copper mine tailings.     

基于变权灰色云模型的江苏省水环境系统脆弱性评价

水环境系统脆弱性是水资源利用与生态环境研究的热点问题,通过研究水环境系统的内在机理,综合考虑影响水环境系统脆弱性的资源、环境、经济、社会等因素,借助驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理（DPSIRM）框架构建水环境系统脆弱性评价指标体系。在此基础上,构建基于变权灰色云模型的评价方法,对2004~2014年江苏省水环境系统脆弱性进行评价。结果表明：2004~2014年水环境系统脆弱性指数由47.056提高到63.210,脆弱性等级由“重度脆弱”演化为“中度脆弱”,并长期维持在“中度脆弱的”等级,2014年出现了向“轻度脆弱”状态转变的趋势。分析各个子系统对水环境系统脆弱性影响程度可知,影响子系统和响应子系统对江苏省水环境脆弱性系统的影响程度逐年增加;而压力子系统和管理子系统对水环境系统脆弱性的影响程度逐年下降;其它子系统对水环境系统脆弱性的影响维持在一定水平小幅度波动。     

平煤十矿底板巷穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采模拟研究

为了降低平煤十矿己15-16-24130工作面运输巷掘进中的突出危险性,基于实际工程背景,考虑瓦斯抽采中的瓦斯运移及煤岩变形等因素,建立了瓦斯抽采气固耦合模型,并利用COMSOL Multiphysics软件对平煤十矿己15-16煤层的底板巷穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采方案进行数值模拟,研究了瓦斯抽采对于降低掘进过程中突出危险性的影响。研究结果表明:在己18煤层开挖底板巷对己15-16煤层进行穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采,瓦斯抽采180 d后,己15-16-24130工作面运输巷附近煤层残余瓦斯压力及瓦斯含量分别降至0.315 MPa和3.84 m3/t;将底板巷穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采方案进行工程应用,实测抽采后的残余瓦斯压力及瓦斯含量在0.32 MPa和3.17 m3/t,均小于平煤十矿煤与瓦斯突出防治规定的“双6”指标（残余瓦斯压力小于0.6 MPa,残余瓦斯含量小于6 m3/t）,可有效降低运输巷掘进过程中的突出危险性。     

基于前导事件和贝叶斯网络的储罐溢油动态风险评价

部分高风险危化品企业搬迁改造困难重重,为控制风险、保护周围人民生命和财产安全,有必要建立动态风险评价系统,对事故发生概率进行监控和预测。采用贝叶斯网络对事故发生概率进行定量分析。先在利用蝴蝶结模型辨识事故原因和后果的基础上,将其转化为贝叶斯网络模型;再导入"前导事件"信息和先验概率推导后验事故发生概率,量化分析事故发生随时间的变化概率;最后,以储罐溢流场景为例进行动态风险计算,结果表明,随化工装置生产时间和"前导事件"增长,元件失效概率和事故风险呈显著增长趋势。因此建议企业应重视"前导事件"并采取措施减少"前导事件",如优化检维修方案、及时更换关键部件、进行全面的事故调查等。     

加轴压卸围压下含瓦斯煤岩损伤变形的能量演化机制

采动影响下含瓦斯煤岩的损伤变形是一个极其复杂的非线性过程,单纯依靠传统经典弹塑性力学无法准确分析其破坏机理。针对此情况,通过试验研究了不同初始围压条件下含瓦斯煤岩的损伤变形特征,并分析了损伤变形与能量演化规律之间的内在联系。研究表明:初始围压越高,煤样破坏时强度越大,脆性破坏特征越明显,瓦斯流量急剧增加幅度越大,煤样破坏时积累的总能量和弹性应变能越多,且初始围压与弹性能之间满足对数函数关系。采用累积耗散能定义了煤岩损伤变量,并分析了不同阶段损伤与渗透率之间的演化关系。     

Urinary metabolomic profiling in rats exposed to dietary di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) using ultra-performance liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC/Q-TOF-MS)

Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) is an omnipresent environmental chemical with widespread nonoccupational human exposure through multiple ways. Although considerable efforts have been invested to investigate mechanisms of DEHP toxicity, the key metabolic biomarkers of DEHP toxicity remain to be identified. The aim of this study was to assess the urinary metabonomics of dietary DEHP in rats using the technique of ultra-performance liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC/Q-TOF-MS). Fourteen female Wistar rats were divided into two groups and given increasing dietary doses of DEHP for 30 consecutive days. The urinary metabolite profile was studied using ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry. Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) enabled clusters to be clearly separated. Eleven principal urinary metabolites were identified as contributing to the clusters. The clusters in the positive electrospray ionization (ESI) mode were xanthurenic acid, kynurenic acid, nonate, N6-methyladenosine, and L-isoleucyl-L-proline. The clusters in the negative ESI mode were hippuric acid, tetrahydrocortisol, citric acid, phenylpropionylglycine, cPA(18:2(9Z, 12Z)/0:0), and LysoPC(14:1(9Z)). The urinary metabonomic changes indicated that exposure to dietary DEHP can affect energy-related metabolism, liver and renal function, fatty acid metabolism, and cause DNA damage in rats. The findings of this study on the urinary metabolites and metabolic pathways of DEHP may form the basis for future studies on the mechanisms of toxicity of this commonly found environmental chemical.     

全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征

基于长江中下游地区1961~2100年区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟与1961~2005年气象站观测的逐日降水数据,通过统计计算年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率4个极端降水指数,研究全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,长江中下游地区极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,年降水量相对于1986~2005年减少5%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加7%、33%和4%;概率密度曲线表明,年降水量均值下降,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值上升,极端降水方差增大;年降水量、强降水量和暴雨日数在空间上表现为南部增加北部减少,极端降水贡献率则相反。(2)全球升温2.0℃情景下,年降水量下降3%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别上升15%、46%和15%;年降水量均值稍有减少且方差稍有上升,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值和方差明显增加;年降水量减少区域位于长江主干以北,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率表现为绝大部分地区增加的空间变化特征。(3)全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加3%、7%、10%和11%;随升温幅度的增加极端降水均值和方差上升;极端降水呈增加态势的范围扩大。因此,努力将升温控制在1.5℃对降低极端降水的影响具有重要意义。