The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and CO2 Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement

A major characteristic of our global interactive climate-energy system is the large uncertainty that exists with respect to both future environmental requirements and the means available for fulfilling these. Potentially, a key technology for leading the transition from the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system to a more sustainable one is carbon dioxide capture and storage. Uncertainties exist, however, concerning the large-scale implementability of this technology, such as related to the regional availability of storage sites for the captured CO₂. We analyze these uncertainties from an integrated assessment perspective by using the bottom-up model TIAM-ECN and by studying a set of scenarios that cover a range of different climate targets and technology futures. Our study consists of two main approaches: (1) a sensitivity analysis through the investigation of a number of scenarios under perfect foresight decision making and (2) a stochastic programming exercise that allows for simultaneously considering a set of potential future states-of-the-world. We find that, if a stringent climate (forcing) target is a possibility, it dominates the solution: if deep CO₂ emission reductions are not started as soon as possible, the target may become unreachable. Attaining a stringent climate target comes in any case at a disproportionally high price, which indicates that adaptation measures or climate damages might be preferable to the high mitigation costs such a target implies.     

Influence of a portable air treatment unit on health-related quality indicators of indoor air in a classroom

During periods of two weeks in February and June 2010 the performance of portable air treatment units (PATUs) was evaluated in a primary school classroom using indicators of indoor air quality. Air samples were collected in an undisturbed setting on weekend days and in an occupied setting during teaching hours. In the first week PATUs were turned off and in the second week they were turned on. On weekend days PATUs reduced indoor levels of PM-10 by 87% in February and by 70% in June compared to weekend days when PATUs were turned off. On schooldays, indoor PM-10 was increased by 6% in February and reduced by 42% in June. For PM-2.5 reductions on weekend days were 89% in February and 80% in June. On school days PM-2.5 was increased by 15% in February and reduced by 83% in June. Turning on the PATUs reduced total VOC by 80% on weekend days and by 57% on school days (but not in June). No influence on formaldehyde, NO(2), O(3) and molds was observed. PATUs appeared to be less effective in removal of air pollutants when used in an occupied classroom compared to an unoccupied setting. Our study suggests that such devices should be tested in real-life settings to evaluate their influence on indoor air quality.     

Concentrations of organophosphate esters and brominated flame retardants in German indoor dust samples

While it is known that the ingestion of indoor dust contributes substantially to human exposure to the recently restricted polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), the situation for one class of potential replacements, i.e. organophosphate esters (OPEs), used in a variety of applications including as flame retardants has yet to be fully characterised. In this study, surface dust from twelve different cars from various locations throughout Germany were analysed for eight OPEs, decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE), and eight PBDEs. In five cars, tris-(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TDCPP) was the dominant compound with concentrations up to 620 μg g(-1) dust. High concentrations of tri-cresyl phosphate (TCP) (up to 150 μg g(-1)) were also detected in two samples of car dust. Dust from ten offices in the same building in Ludwigsburg, Germany was also analysed. In these samples, tri (2-butoxyethyl) phosphate (TBEP) predominated with an average concentration of 7.0 μg g(-1) dust, followed by tris (1-chloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TCPP) at 3.0 μg g(-1) and triphenyl phosphate (TPhP) at 2.5 μg g(-1) dust. Although caution must be exercised given the relatively small database reported here; this study provides evidence that cars and offices from Germany are significantly more contaminated with OPEs than PBDEs. Average concentrations of ΣOPEs were ten times higher in car than in office dust. This is the first study to provide data on a wide range of OPE concentrations in German indoor dust samples.     

Land Use Changes in Regional Economic Theory

Land use and land cover changes are a major source of environmental degradation and therefore a serious issue in sustainable development studies and in the integrated assessment of environmental problems. In an attempt to understand part of the complexity of land use change we here aim to explore the ways in which economists deals with the land use issue. We argue that space is one of the forgotten items in economics. Economists often seem to ignore high-resolution spatial dynamics either because they are not considered as an important feature of the problem or out of habit. It seems as though there is a trade-off between spatial resolution and human behaviour in current applications. Certain types of models are capable of capturing the spatial complexity of urban and regional areas, for instance, by using cellular automata. Other types of land use models clearly have shortcomings where it concerns spatial detail. Dynamic modelling approaches do not guarantee a high spatial resolution.We propose to give more attention to agent based modelling as this type of modelling provides a specific connection between processes on micro level and macro-level spatial structures.     

Land Cover Changes as a Result of Environmental Restrictions on Nitrate Leaching in Dairy Farming

Nitrate leaching forms an important environmental problem because it causes pollution of groundwater and surface water, and adds to already problematic eutrophication. This study analyses the impact of reductions in nitrate leaching on land cover decisions of dairy farms, of which the activities make an important contribution to nitrate leaching. As the level of nitrate leaching depends on groundwater depth as well as on the supply of nitrogen, spatial variation in groundwater levels will cause a spatial variation in land cover under restrictions on nitrate leaching. A non-linear partial optimisation model for the economic and ecological aspects of the problem were used to show how land cover and dairy farms' financial balances change when nitrate losses are reduced. The model is spatially explicit, and describes nitrate leakage and yields of maize and grass as a function of groundwater depth, including the effects of various grazing systems. The model analyses the decisions of a risk neutral agent who minimises costs under the following constraints: (i) production, feed requirements and mass balances for fodder; (ii) constraints for nitrate leaching. Economic costs are attributed to increased costs of fodder and processing of manure when nitrate restrictions are tightened. An important result of the study is the variation in compliance costs and land cover for maize and grass production brought about by spatial variation in groundwater depth. While the effects are negligible for some shallow groundwater classes, it is extremely difficult in other classes – if not impossible – to obtain the EU standard of maximum admissible losses of 34 kg N ha^–1 at low costs. The study shows an important reduction in land cover by maize.     

Dielectric properties of MSWI bottom ash for non-invasive monitoring of moisture

The dielectric procperties of MSWI bottom ash as a function of volumetric water content (VWC) are reported in this paper. The objective was to aid the development of microwave based non-invasive emission monitoring and control system for various bottom ash applications. The dielectric measurements were made, on a 1.5-year-old bottom ash, with an electrical network analyzer in microwave range (300 MHz–1.5 GHz). The VWC of the samples ranged between 0.05 and 0.40 m³?m^?3. The relationship between the dielectric permittivity and the VWC was modeled with an empirical model and a physically based Birchak model (BM). The results showed that a linear relationship existed between the permittivity and the VWC at higher water contents (>0.25 m³?m^?3). However, at lower water contents (<0.25 m³?m^?3), the relationship between the permittivity and the WVC was affected by the composition of the bottom ash. The permittivity measurement, with the current method, was not affected by high salt concentrations (10 and 20 dS/m). The empirical model, as compared to BM, provided the best fit between the actual and the predicted water content. The root mean square error (RMSE) values were 0.008–0.010 and 0.06–0.09 m³?m^?3 for the empirical and the Birchak model, respectively.     

Landscape Correlates of Breeding Bird Richness Across the United States Mid-Atlantic Region

Using a new set of landscape indicator data generated by the U.S.EPA, and a comprehensive breeding bird database from the National Breeding Bird Survey, we evaluated associations between breeding bird richness and landscape characteristics across the entire mid-Atlantic region of the United States. We evaluated how these relationships varied among different groupings (guilds) of birds based on functional, structural, and compositional aspects of individual species demographics. Forest edge was by far the most important landscape attribute affecting the richness of the lumped specialist and generalist guilds; specialist species richness was negatively associated with forest edge and generalist richness was positively associated with forest edge. Landscape variables (indicators) explained a greater proportion of specialist species richness than the generalist guild (46% and 31%, respectively). The lower value in generalists may reflect finer-scale distributions of open habitat that go undetected by the Landsat satellite, open habitats created by roads (the areas from which breeding bird data are obtained), and the lumping of a wide variety of species into the generalist category. A further breakdown of species into 16 guilds showed considerable variation in the response of breeding birds to landscape conditions; forest obligate species had the strongest association with landscape indicators measured in this study (55% of the total variation explained) and forest generalists and open ground nesters the lowest (17% of the total variation explained). The variable response of guild species richness to landscape pattern suggests that one must consider species' demographics when assessing the consequences of landscape change on breeding birds.     

Principal response curves technique for the analysis of multivariate biomonitoring time series

Although chemical and biological monitoring is often used to evaluate the quality of surface waters for regulatory purposes and/or to evaluate environmental status and trends, the resulting biological and chemical data sets are large and difficult to evaluate. Multivariate techniques have long been used to analyse complex data sets. This paper discusses the methods currently in use and introduces the principal response curves method, which overcomes the problem of cluttered graphical results representation that is a great drawback of most conventional methods. To illustrate this, two example data sets are analysed using two ordination techniques, principal component analysis and principal response curves. Whereas PCA results in a difficult-to-interpret diagram, principal response curves related methods are able to show changes in community composition in a diagram that is easy to read. The principal response curves method is used to show trends over time with an internal reference (overall mean or reference year) or external reference (e.g. preferred water quality or reference site). Advantages and disadvantages of both methods are discussed and illustrated.     

The distribution and extent of heavy metal accumulation in song sparrows along Arizona’s upper Santa Cruz River

Heavy metals are persistent environmental contaminants, and transport of metals into the environment poses a threat to ecosystems, as plants and wildlife are susceptible to long-term exposure, bioaccumulation, and potential toxicity. We investigated the distribution and cascading extent of heavy metal accumulation in southwestern song sparrows (Melospiza melodia fallax), a resident riparian bird species that occurs along the US/Mexico border in Arizona’s upper Santa Cruz River watershed. This study had three goals: (1) quantify the degree of heavy metal accumulation in sparrows and determine the distributional patterns among study sites, (2) compare concentrations of metals found in this study to those found in studies performed prior to a 2009 international wastewater facility upgrade, and (3) assess the condition of song sparrows among sites with differing potential levels of exposure. We examined five study sites along with a reference site that reflect different potential sources of contamination. Body mass residuals and leukocyte counts were used to assess sparrow condition. Birds at our study sites typically had higher metal concentrations than birds at the reference site. Copper, mercury, nickel, and selenium in song sparrows did exceed background levels, although most metals were below background concentrations determined from previous studies. Song sparrows generally showed lower heavy metal concentrations compared to studies conducted prior to the 2009 wastewater facility upgrade. We found no cascading effects as a result of metal exposure.     

Variability in environmental impacts of Brazilian soybean according to crop production and transport scenarios

Soybean production and its supply chain are highly dependent on inputs such as land, fertilizer, fuel, machines, pesticides and electricity. The expansion of this crop in Brazil in recent decades has generated concerns about its environmental impacts. To assess these impacts, two representative chains supplying soybeans to Europe were identified: Center West (CW) and Southern (SO) Brazil. Each supply chain was analyzed using Life Cycle Assessment methodology. We considered different levels of use of chemical and organic fertilizers, pesticides and machinery, different distances for transportation of inputs and different yield levels. Because transportation contributed strongly to environmental impacts, a detailed study was performed to identify the routes used to transport soybeans to seaports. Additionally, we considered different levels of land occupation and land transformation to represent the impact of deforestation in the CW region. Environmental impacts were calculated for 1000 kg of soybean up to and including the delivery to Europe at the seaport in Rotterdam, at 13% humidity. Overall results showed that the impacts are greater for CW than for SO for all impact categories studied, including acidification (7.7 and 5.3 kg SO₂ eq., respectively), climate change (959 and 510 kg CO₂ eq.), cumulative energy demand (12,634 and 6,999 MJ) and terrestrial ecotoxicity (4.9 and 3.1 kg 1,4-DCB eq.), except eutrophication and land occupation. The same trend was observed for the crop-production stage. Efforts to reduce chemical fertilizers and diesel consumption can reduce CO₂ emissions. Although deforestation for crop production has decreased in recent years, the contribution of deforestation to climate change and cumulative energy demand remains significant. In the CW scenario deforestation contributed 29% to climate change and 20% to cumulative energy demand. Results also showed that although there are different transportation options in Brazil, the current predominance of road transport causes severe environmental impacts. In CW, road transport contributed 19% to climate change and 24% to cumulative energy demand, while in SO it contributed 12% and 15% to these impacts, respectively. Improvements in the logistics of transportation, giving priority to rail and river transports over road transport, can contribute significantly to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and decreasing energy use. Future studies involving Brazilian soybeans should take into account the region of origin as different levels of environmental impact are predicted.