Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Flood vulnerability,risk, and social disadvantage: current and future patterns in the UK

Regional Environmental Change - Present day and future social vulnerability, flood risk, and disadvantage across the UK are explored using the UK Future Flood Explorer. In doing so, new indices of...     

Speciation of phosphorus in phosphorus-enriched agricultural soils using X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy and chemical fractionation

Knowledge of phosphorus (P) species in P-rich soils is useful for assessing P mobility and potential transfer to ground water and surface waters. Soil P was studied using synchrotron X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy (a nondestructive chemical-speciation technique) and sequential chemical fractionation. The objective was to determine the chemical speciation of P in long-term-fertilized, P-rich soils differing in pH, clay, and organic matter contents. Samples of three slightly acidic (pH 5.5-6.2) and two slightly alkaline (pH 7.4-7.6) soils were collected from A or B horizons in two distinct agrosystems in the province of Québec, Canada. The soils contained between 800 and 2100 mg total P kg(-1). Distinct XANES features for Ca-phosphate mineral standards and for standards of adsorbed phosphate made it possible to differentiate these forms of P in the soil samples. The XANES results indicated that phosphate adsorbed on Fe- or Al-oxide minerals was present in all soils, with a higher proportion in acidic than in slightly alkaline samples. Calcium phosphate also occurred in all soils, regardless of pH. In agreement with chemical fractionation results, XANES data showed that Ca-phosphates were the dominant P forms in one acidic (pH 5.5) and in the two slightly alkaline (pH 7.4-7.6) soil samples. X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy directly identified certain forms of soil P, while chemical fractionation provided indirect supporting data and gave insights on additional forms of P such as organic pools that were not accounted for by the XANES analyses.