Ozone Injury to Pinus Strobus

In a study of the ozone-induced needle blight of eastern white pine in central New York, acute injuries naturally induced on field trees during a year of relatively low ozone concentrations (1 966) were compared with injuries induced during a year of higher concentrations (1967). Injuries were more frequent and severe and were associated with higher mean ozone concentrations in 1967 than in 1966. Characteristic symptoms were induced on foliage of pine branches exposed to controlled doses of ozone as low as 7 ± 1 pphm for four hours or 3 ± 1 pphm for 48 hours. Such doses were equalled or exceeded two and four times, respectively, in the field during the 1 967 season. Ozone sensitivity of pine needle tissue was increased by fumigation in atmospheres containing water mist. High concentrations of ozone (40-60 pphm) caused general injury of foliage of both ozone-susceptible and resistant trees; the symptoms were unlike those found in the field or caused by fumigation with low concentrations of ozone.     

Variance Design and Air Pollution Control

Confronted with shortages of low sulfur content residual fuel oil and, consequently, faced with the threat of social and economic upheaval, several air pollution control authorities in the Northeastern states were forced to relax hard-won air quality standards during the winter of 1972. The authorities did so by granting variances to their sulfur content standards for residual fuel oil. This paper examines the institutional characteristics of these variance policies from an economic incentive standpoint. After setting up desirable structural criteria for institutional design of such crisis policies, the authors examine the experience of the winter of 1972 and arrive at policy guidelines which recommend themselves for consideration in future periods of fuel oil shortages.     

The Regulation of Toxic Air Pollutants A Critical Review

ABSTRACT

Passage of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments launched the Acid Rain Program in the United States. This initiative, based on the market mechanism of a sulfur dioxide tradable “allowance” system, was a dramatic departure from traditional command and control strategies designed to reduce air pollution emissions. Power plant managers have flexibility under the program to select and implement a variety of options to reduce emissions below mandated levels. Federal agencies have collected annual performance data for affected facilities covered by the program for a number of years. Coal-burning plants are typically greater generators of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) than oil burners of equivalent size. This study examined the effect of fuel type as a significant factor influencing a plant's achievement in reducing pollution emissions. Achievement was measured by using a derived variable, delta (A), defined as the difference between pounds of SO₂ produced divided by the energy (in million Btu) generated, for the years 1990 and 1995. Rigorous nonparametric statistical analyses were used to compare the two populations of coal-fired and oil-fired plants. Results indicated that coal-burning facilities achieved greater program success, measured by the expected value of delta, than the oil combustors for the five-year period reviewed. Since utility managers must take steps to ensure all applicable requirements of the program are met, findings of the inquiry should prove to be useful in assessing achievable emissions reductions and aid in long-range facility planning.     

Physicochemical controls on initiation and evolution of desiccation cracks in sand-bentonite mixtures: X-ray CT imaging and stochastic modeling

The shrink-swell behavior of active clays in response to changes in physicochemical conditions creates great challenges for construction of geotechnical barriers for hazardous waste isolation, and is of significant importance for management of agricultural and natural resources. Initiation and evolution of desiccation cracks in active clays are strongly dependent on physicochemical initial and boundary conditions. To investigate effects of bentonite content (20, 40, 60%), pore fluid chemistry (0.05 and 0.5M NaCl) and drying rates (40 and 60°C) on cracking behavior, well-controlled dehydration experiments were conducted and X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) was applied to visualize and quantify geometrical features of evolving crack networks. A stochastic model based on the Fokker-Plank equation was adopted to describe the evolution of crack aperture distributions (CAD) and to assess the impact of physicochemical factors on cracking behavior. Analyses of crack porosity and crack specific surface area showed that both clay content and temperature had larger impact on cracking than pore fluid concentration. More cracks formed at high bentonite contents (40 and 60%) and at high drying rate (60°C). The drift, diffusion and source terms derived from stochastic analysis indicated that evaporative demand had greater influence on the dynamics of the CAD than solution chemistry.     

Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.     

Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agro-climatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes.     

Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales.