METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

THE VULNERABILITY OF WETLANDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A HYDROLOGIC LANDSCAPE PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: The vulnerability of wetlands to changes in climate depends on their position within hydrologic landscapes. Hydrologic landscapes are defined by the flow characteristics of ground water and surface water and by the interaction of atmospheric water, surface water, and ground water for any given locality or region. Six general hydrologic landscapes are defined; mountainous, plateau and high plain, broad basins of interior drainage, riverine, flat coastal, and hummocky glacial and dune. Assessment of these landscapes indicate that the vulnerability of all wetlands to climate change fall between two extremes: those dependent primarily on precipitation for their water supply are highly vulnerable, and those dependent primarily on discharge from regional ground water flow systems are the least vulnerable, because of the great buffering capacity of large ground water flow systems to climate change.     

Reverse logistics in the Brazilian construction industry

In Brazil most Construction and Demolition Waste (C&D waste) is not recycled. This situation is expected to change significantly, since new federal regulations oblige municipalities to create and implement sustainable C&D waste management plans which assign an important role to recycling activities. The recycling organizational network and its flows and components are fundamental to C&D waste recycling feasibility. Organizational networks, flows and components involve reverse logistics. The aim of this work is to introduce the concepts of reverse logistics and reverse distribution channel networks and to study the Brazilian C&D waste case.     

Managing erosion and water quality in agricultural watersheds by small detention ponds

Terrace-contouring systems with on-site water detention cannot be installed in areas of complex topography, small parceling and multi-blade moldboard plow use. However, field borders at the downslope end may be raised at the deepest part where runoff overtops to create detention ponds, which can be drained by subsurface tile outlets and act similar to terrace-contouring systems. Four of such detention ponds were monitored over 8 years. Monitored effects included the prevention of linear erosion down slope, the sediment trapping from upslope, the enrichment of major nutrients in the trapped and delivered sediments, the amount of runoff retained temporarily, the amount of runoff reduced by infiltration, the decrease in peak runoff rate and the decrease in peak concentrations of agrochemicals due to the mixing of different volumes of water within the detention ponds. The detention ponds had a volume of 30–260 m³ ha⁻¹ and trapped 54–85% of the incoming sediment, which was insignificantly to slightly depleted (5–25%) in organic carbon, phosphorus, nitrogen and clay as compared to the eroding topsoil, while the delivered sediment was strongly enriched (+70–270%) but part of this enrichment already resulted from the enrichment of soil loss. The detention ponds temporarily stored 200–500 m³ of runoff. A failure was never experienced. Due to the siltation of the pond bottom, the short filled time (1–5 days) and the small water covered area, infiltration and evaporation reduced runoff by less than 10% for large events. Peak runoff during heavy rains was lowered by a factor of three. Peak concentrations of agrochemicals (Terbutylazin) were lowered by a factor of two. The detention ponds created by raising the downslope field borders at the pour point efficiently reduced adverse erosion effects downslope the eroding site. They are cheap and can easily be created with on-farm machinery. Their efficiency is improved where they are combined with an on-site erosion control like mulch tillage because sediment and runoff input are reduced. Ponds had to be dredged only after the first year when on-site erosion control was not fully effective.     

The difference of morphological characteristics and population structure in PAO and DPAOgranular sludges

We examined how long-term operation of anaerobic–oxic and anaerobic–anoxic sequencing batch reactors(SBRs) affects the enhanced biological phosphorus removal(EBPR)performance and sludge characteristics. The microbial characteristics of phosphorus accumulating organism(PAO) and denitrifying PAO(DPAO) sludge were also analyzed through a quantitative analysis of microbial community structure. Compared with the initial stage of operation characterized by unstable EBPR, both PAO and DPAO SBR produced a stable EBPR performance after about 100-day operation. From day 200 days(DPAO SBR)and 250 days(PAO SBR) onward, sludge granulation was observed, and the average granule size of DPAO SBR was approximately 5 times larger than that of PAO SBR. The DPAO granular sludge contained mainly rod-type microbes, whereas the PAO granular sludge contained coccus-type microbes. Fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis revealed that a high ratio of Accumulibacter clade I was found only in DPAO SBR, revealing the important role of this organism in the denitrifying EBPR system. A pyrosequencing analysis showed that Accumulibacter phosphatis was present in PAO sludge at a high proportion of 6%,whereas it rarely observed in DPAO sludge. Dechloromonas was observed in both PAO sludge(3.3%) and DPAO sludge(3.2%), confirming that this organism can use both O_2 and NO_3~- as electron acceptors. Further, Thauera spp. was identified to have a new possibility as denitrifier capable of phosphorous uptake under anoxic condition.     

利用玉米浸泡液产电的微生物燃料电池研究

以玉米淀粉生产过程中的浸泡液（玉米浸泡液）作为接种液和基质,利用“三合一”膜电极的单室空气阴极微生物燃料电池进行试验,采用在线监测电压和废水分析方法对产电功率和化学需氧量（COD）、氨氮进行测定,探讨高COD、高氨氮有机废水产电及废水处理的可行性.结果表明,经过94 d（1个周期）的连续运行（固定外电阻为1 000 Ω）,17 d时输出电压达到最大（525.0 mV）,稳定期最大输出功率可达169.6 mW/m²,此时电池相应的电流密度为440.2 mA/m²,内阻约为350 Ω,开路电压619.5 mV;但燃料电池电子利用效率较低（库仑效率为1.6%）;1个周期结束时浸泡液的COD去除率达到51.6%,氨氮去除率25.8%.本试验利用玉米浸泡液成功获得电能,同时对浸泡液有效地进行了处理,为其资源化利用提供新途径.     

蠕虫在膜生物反应器和活性污泥法中的污泥减量研究

通过长达345d的中试规模试验,研究比较了蠕虫在膜生物反应器(MBR)和活性污泥法(CAS)的生长状况及其导致的污泥减量效果.CAS中的蠕虫生长状况明显优于MBR的蠕虫生长状况.MBR曝气池中平均蠕虫密度(10条·mg-1)远低于CAS曝气池中平均蠕虫密度(71条·mg-1),并且CAS中蠕虫连续保持高密度(>30条·mg-1)生长达172d.CAS中红斑瓢体虫和仙女虫交替成为优势蠕虫.蠕虫生长对MBR的污泥产率(0 40kg·kg-1)和污泥沉降性能(污泥沉降指数133mL·g-1)影响很小,但却能显著减少CAS的污泥产率(0 17kg·kg-1)和改善污泥沉降性能(污泥沉降指数为60mL·g-1).仙女虫比红斑瓢体虫能更大地减少污泥产量和更好地改善污泥沉降性能.蠕虫生长不影响MBR的COD去除率和出水水质,但却显著影响CAS的COD去除率和出水水质.