Uncertainty aspects in process safety analysis

Uncertainties of input data as well as of simulation models used in process safety analysis (PSA) are key issues in the application of risk analysis results. Mostly, it is connected with an incomplete and uncertain identification of representative accident scenario (RAS) and other vague and ambiguous information required for the assessment of particular elements of risk, especially for determination of frequency as well as severity of the consequences of RAS. The authors discuss and present the sources and types of uncertainties encountered in PSA and also methods to deal with them. There are different approaches to improve such analysis including sensitivity analysis, expert method, statistics and fuzzy logic. Statistical approach uses probability distribution of the input data and fuzzy logic approach uses fuzzy sets. This paper undertakes the fuzzy approach and presents a proposal for fuzzy risk assessment. It consists of a combination of traditional part, where methods within the process hazard analysis (PHA) are used, and “fuzzy part”, applied quantitatively, where fuzzy logic system (FLS) is involved. It concerns frequency, severity of the consequences of RAS and risk evaluation. In addition, a new element called risk correction index (RCI) is introduced to take into account uncertainty concerned with the identification of RAS. The preliminary tests confirmed that the final results on risk index are more precisely and realistically determined.     

Bold minnows consistently approach danger in the field and lab in response to either chemical or visual indicators of predation risk

A behavioral syndrome is a suite of behaviors correlated across multiple social contexts. In this study, boldness in the face of predation risk was assessed twice in fish across two different sensory modalities in both the field and lab to ascertain the biological relevance and complexity of this attribute. Individual fathead minnows were captured from a natural field population using traps that either contained chemical alarm cues (conspecific skin extract) or control (well water) and their responses to the presence of predator behind a glass partition assessed in the laboratory. Although fewer fish were captured in alarm cue-labeled traps, these bold fish performed longer predator inspections than shy fish captured in control traps. Thus, a shy/bold behavioral syndrome was expressed consistently across field and lab settings in response to both chemical and visual indicators of danger. Shy and bold individuals did not differ in sex, body length, secondary sexual characteristics, or parasite load but were of more robust physical condition.     

Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the ‘reaction-diffusion’ mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first—the ‘refuge mechanism’—hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the ‘dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism’ is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.     

On the evidence for species coexistence: a critique of the coexistence program

A major challenge in ecology is to understand how the millions of species on Earth are organized into biological communities. Mechanisms promoting coexistence are one such class of organizing processes, which allow multiple species to persist in the same trophic level of a given web of species interactions. If some mechanism promotes the coexistence of two or more species, each species must be able to increase when it is rare and the others are at their typical abundances; this invasibility criterion is fundamental evidence for species coexistence regardless of the mechanism. In an attempt to evaluate the level of empirical support for coexistence mechanisms in nature, we surveyed the literature for empirical studies of coexistence at a local scale (i.e., species found living together in one place) to determine whether these studies satisfied the invasibility criterion. In our survey, only seven of 323 studies that drew conclusions about species coexistence evaluated invasibility in some way in either observational or experimental studies. In addition, only three other studies evaluated necessary but not sufficient conditions for invasibility (i.e., negative density dependence and a trade-off in performance that influences population regulation). These results indicate that, while species coexistence is a prevalent assumption for why species are able to live together in one place, critical empirical tests of this fundamental assumption of community structure are rarely performed. These tests are central to developing a more robust understanding of the relative contributions of both deterministic and stochastic processes structuring biological communities.     

Effects of three pesticides on the avoidance behavior of earthworms in laboratory tests performed under temperate and tropical conditions

Little research has been performed on the impact of pesticides on earthworms under tropical conditions. Taking into consideration the often-limited resources in tropical countries, simple screening tests are needed. Therefore, it was investigated whether three pesticides relevant for the Brazilian Amazon (benomyl, carbendazim, lambda-cyhalothrin) affect the avoidance behavior of the earthworm Eisenia fetida. The tests were performed for two days according to ISO guideline 17512 but were adapted to tropical conditions (i.e. test substrate, test organism and temperature). The results indicate that this test gives reproducible and reliable results. Toxicity values (NOEC, EC50) are lower than those determined in 14 day-acute mortality tests and are approximately in the same range such as those found in 56 day-chronic reproduction tests with the same earthworm species, which were performed in parallel. Therefore, the use of the earthworm avoidance tests is recommended as a screening tool for the risk assessment of pesticides.     

Multiple mate choice criteria and the importance of age for male mating success in the microhylid frog, Cophixalus ornatus

We examined multiple mate choice criteria in Cophixalus ornatus, a terrestrial breeding, microhylid frog. Mate choice consisted of three stages: mate attraction (male calling), courtship (male behavior between the call site and the nest), and nest site selection by the female. For male C. ornatus, the possession of a call with low dominant frequency relative to calling neighbors increased the probability that they would attract females. Dominant frequency was negatively correlated with age independent of male mass and snout vent length. When escorting the female from the call site to their nest, males traveled along more convoluted paths than when returning to the nest alone. The convolution of the path was, therefore, considered an aspect of courtship. Females released eggs into nests with structural characteristics typical of nests constructed by older males. Thus, females increased their chances of locating an acceptable nest by preferentially approaching males with lower dominant frequencies. This study is the first to demonstrate that age, independent of mass or snout-vent length, can influence call characteristics in anurans, and it is also the first to demonstrate the importance of male age to female mate choice in an amphibian.     

Why farmers adopt best management practice in the United States: a meta-analysis of the adoption literature

This meta-analysis of both published and unpublished studies assesses factors believed to influence adoption of agricultural Best Management Practices in the United States. Using an established statistical technique to summarize the adoption literature in the United States, we identified the following variables as having the largest impact on adoption: access to and quality of information, financial capacity, and being connected to agency or local networks of farmers or watershed groups. This study shows that various approaches to data collection affect the results and comparability of adoption studies. In particular, environmental awareness and farmer attitudes have been inconsistently used and measured across the literature. This meta-analysis concludes with suggestions regarding the future direction of adoption studies, along with guidelines for how data should be presented to enhance the adoption of conservation practices and guide research.     

A landscape-based reconnaissance survey of estrogenic activity in streams of the upper Potomac,upper James,and Shenandoah Rivers,USA

Endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) are becoming of increasing concern in waterways of the USA and worldwide. What remains poorly understood, however, is how prevalent these emerging contaminants are in the environment and what methods are best able to determine landscape sources of EDCs. We describe the development of a spatially structured sampling design and a reconnaissance survey of estrogenic activity along gradients of land use within sub-watersheds. We present this example as a useful approach for state and federal agencies with an interest in identifying locations potentially impacted by EDCs that warrant more intensive, focused research. Our study confirms the importance of agricultural activities on levels of a measured estrogenic equivalent (E2Eq) and also highlights the importance of other potential sources of E2Eq in areas where intensive agriculture is not the dominant land use. Through application of readily available geographic information system (GIS) data, coupled with spatial statistical analysis, we demonstrate the correlation of specific land use types to levels of estrogenic activity across a large area in a consistent and unbiased manner.     

The dynamics of arsenic in four paddy fields in the Bengal delta

Irrigation with arsenic contaminated groundwater in the Bengal Delta may lead to As accumulation in the soil and rice grain. The dynamics of As concentration and speciation in paddy fields during dry season (boro) rice cultivation were investigated at 4 sites in Bangladesh and West Bengal, India. Three sites which were irrigated with high As groundwater had elevated As concentrations in the soils, showing a significant gradient from the irrigation inlet across the field. Arsenic concentration and speciation in soil pore water varied temporally and spatially; higher As concentrations were associated with an increasing percentage of arsenite, indicating a reductive mobilization. Concentrations of As in rice grain varied by 2-7 fold within individual fields and were poorly related with the soil As concentration. A field site employing alternating flooded-dry irrigation produced the lowest range of grain As concentration, suggesting a lower soil As availability caused by periodic aerobic conditions.     

Comparing universal kriging and land-use regression for predicting concentrations of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.