Uncertainty aspects in process safety analysis

Uncertainties of input data as well as of simulation models used in process safety analysis (PSA) are key issues in the application of risk analysis results. Mostly, it is connected with an incomplete and uncertain identification of representative accident scenario (RAS) and other vague and ambiguous information required for the assessment of particular elements of risk, especially for determination of frequency as well as severity of the consequences of RAS. The authors discuss and present the sources and types of uncertainties encountered in PSA and also methods to deal with them. There are different approaches to improve such analysis including sensitivity analysis, expert method, statistics and fuzzy logic. Statistical approach uses probability distribution of the input data and fuzzy logic approach uses fuzzy sets. This paper undertakes the fuzzy approach and presents a proposal for fuzzy risk assessment. It consists of a combination of traditional part, where methods within the process hazard analysis (PHA) are used, and “fuzzy part”, applied quantitatively, where fuzzy logic system (FLS) is involved. It concerns frequency, severity of the consequences of RAS and risk evaluation. In addition, a new element called risk correction index (RCI) is introduced to take into account uncertainty concerned with the identification of RAS. The preliminary tests confirmed that the final results on risk index are more precisely and realistically determined.     

New investigation findings on the 2006 Danvers,MA explosion

On November 22, 2006 the largest explosion in the history of Massachusetts occurred in Danvers, MA at approximately 2:46 am. This paper presents a detailed analysis into the potential causes and lessons learned from the Danvers explosion. Other investigative groups concluded that the cause of the explosion was an overheated production tank. However, the analyses presented here demonstrate that their proposed scenario could not have occurred and that other potential causes are more likely.Using the computational fluid dynamics tool FLACS, it was possible to investigate the chain of events leading to the explosion, including: (1) evaluating various leak scenarios by modeling the dispersion and mixing of gases and vapors within the facility, (2) evaluating potential ignition sources within the facility of the flammable fuel–air mixture, and (3) evaluating the explosion itself by comparing the resulting overpressures of the exploding fuel–air cloud with the structural response of the facility and the observed near-field and far-field blast damage. These results, along with key witness statements and other analyses, provide valuable insight into the likely cause of this incident. Based on the results of our detailed analysis, lessons learned regarding the investigative procedure and methods for mitigating this and future explosions are discussed.     

Using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for blast wave predictions

Explosions will, in most cases, generate blast waves. While simple models (e.g., Multi Energy Method) are useful for simple explosion geometries, most practical explosions are far from trivial and require detailed analyses. For a reliable estimate of the blast from a gas explosion it is necessary to know the explosion strength. The source explosion may not be symmetric; the pressure waves will be reflected or deflected when hitting objects, or even worse, the blast waves may propagate inside buildings or tunnels with a very low rate of decay. The use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) explosion models for near and far field blast wave predictions has many advantages. These include more precise estimates of the energy and resulting pressure of the blast wave, as well as the ability to evaluate non-symmetrical effects caused by realistic geometries, gas cloud variations and ignition locations. This is essential when evaluating the likelihood of a given leak source as cause of an explosion or equally when evaluating the potential risk associated with a given leak source for a consequence analysis.In addition, unlike simple methods, CFD explosion models can also evaluate detailed dynamic effects in the near and far field, which include time dependent pressure loads as well as reflection and focusing of the blast waves. This is particularly valuable when assessing actual near-field blast damage during an explosion investigation or potential near-field damage during a risk analysis for a facility. One main challenge in applying CFD, however, is that these models require more information about the actual facility, including geometry details and process information. Collecting the necessary geometry and process data may be quite time consuming. This paper will show some blast prediction validation examples for the CFD model FLACS. It will also provide examples of how directional effects or interaction with objects can significantly influence the dynamics of the blast wave. Finally, the challenge of obtaining useful predictions with insufficient details regarding the geometry will also be addressed.     

On the dissipation rate of temperature fluctuations in stably stratified flows

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - In this study, we explore several integral and outer length scales of turbulence which can be formulated by using the dissipation of temperature fluctuations (...     

21世纪可替代脊椎动物进行生态毒性测试的方法：过去二十年的发展和现状综述

替代脊椎动物进行化学物质和污染物危害评估的方法已成为越来越重要的需求。现在首先要考虑的是当启动一个脊椎动物生态毒性测试,必须确保不必要的脊椎动物生物的使用尽可能最小化。对于一些监管目的,脊椎动物的使用对环境风险评估(ERA)已经被禁止,而在其他情况下生物测试的数量已经大大减少了,或者测试程序严格精简了。然而,想要获得能够完全替代脊椎动物提供环境危害数据的方法仍有很长的路要走。动物替代品的发展不仅仅是基于道德的考虑,也可以降低执行脊椎动物生态毒性测试的成本以及在某些情况下能够提供更好的信息旨在改进环境风险评估。本文集中综述了在过去的几十年里生态毒性评估替代方法所发生的重大的进展。
精选自Adam Lillicrap, Scott Belanger, Natalie Burden, David Du Pasquier, Michelle R. Embry, Marlies Halder, Mark A. Lampi, Lucy Lee, Teresa Norberg-King, Barnett A. Rattner, Kristin Schirmer, Paul Thomas. Alternative approaches to vertebrate ecotoxicity tests in the 21st century: a review of developments over the last two decades and current status. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 11, pages 2637–2646, November 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3603
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3603/full
     

Compilation of EINECS: Descriptions and definitions used for substances,impurities and mixtures

The European INventory of Existing commercial Chemical Substances (EINECS) lists all substances which were on the European Community Market between 1 January 1971 and 18 September 1981. Substances on EINECS are known as ‘existing’ substances. The EINECS inventory was drawn up by the European Commission to meet the requirements of article 13 of Directive 79/831/EEC [1]. EINECS was published in the Official Journal of the European Communities in 1990 [2]. This paper describes how individual substances, impurities and mixtures were defined and dealt with when registered for the EINECS inventory. It is the first in a series of such papers.     

In-hive patterns of temporal polyethism in strains of honey bees (Apis mellifera) with distinct genetic backgrounds

Honey bee workers exhibit an age-based division of labor (temporal polyethism, DOL). Younger bees transition through sets of tasks within the nest; older bees forage outside. Components of temporal polyethism remain unrevealed. Here, we investigate the timing and pattern of pre-foraging behavior in distinct strains of bees to (1) determine if a general pattern of temporal DOL exists in honey bees, (2) to demonstrate a direct genetic impact on temporal pacing, and (3) to further elucidate the mechanisms controlling foraging initiation. Honey bees selected for differences in stored pollen demonstrate consistent differences in foraging initiation age. Those selected for increased pollen storage (high pollen hoarding strain, HSBs) initiate foraging earlier in life than those selected for decreased pollen storage (low pollen hoarding strain, LSBs). We found that HSBs both initiate and terminate individual pre-foraging tasks earlier than LSBs when housed in a common hive environment. Unselected commercial bees (wild type) generally demonstrated intermediate behavioral timing. There were few differences between genotypes for the proportion of pre-foraging effort dedicated to individual tasks, though total pre-foraging effort differences differed dramatically. This demonstrates that behavioral pacing can be accelerated or slowed, but the pattern of behavior is not fundamentally altered, suggesting a general pattern of temporal behavior in honey bees. This also demonstrates direct genetic control of temporal pacing. Finally, our results suggest that earlier HSB protein (pollen) consumption termination compared to LSBs may contribute to an earlier decline in hemolymph vitellogenin protein titers, which would explain their earlier onset of foraging.