Combining Stochastic Optimization and Monte Carlo Simulation to Deal with Uncertainties in Climate Policy Assessment

In this paper, we explore the impact of several sources of uncertainties on the assessment of energy and climate policies when one uses in a harmonized way stochastic programming in a large-scale bottom-up (BU) model and Monte Carlo simulation in a large-scale top-down (TD) model. The BU model we use is the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model, which is run in a stochastic programming version to provide a hedging emission policy to cope with the uncertainty characterizing climate sensitivity. The TD model we use is the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. Through Monte Carlo simulations of randomly generated uncertain parameter values, one provides a stochastic micro- and macro-economic analysis. Through statistical analysis of the simulation results, we analyse the impact of the uncertainties on the policy assessment.     

Designing Connected and Compact Nature Reserves

It is generally accepted that for many species, the ability to get around a reserve promotes their long-term persistence. Here, we measure the ease with which species can move by two spatial criteria: (i) the connectivity of the reserve, that is to say, the possibility to go through the whole reserve without leaving it, and (ii) the compactness of the reserve, that is to say, the remoteness of the sites in relation to each other, the distance between two sites being measured by the shortest distance to travel to get from one site to another without leaving the reserve. To protect the reserve of external disturbances, we also impose a connectivity constraint for the area outside the reserve. This article presents a method based on integer linear programming to define connected and compact reserves. Computational experiments carried out on artificial instances with 400 sites and 100 species are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the approach.     

Hare or Tortoise? Trade-offs in Recovering Sustainable Bioeconomic Systems

In this paper, we develop a framework for (a) the study of sustainability of dynamic bioeconomic systems and (b) the definition of recovery paths from unsustainable situations. We assume that the system follows a sustainable trajectory if it evolves over time within a set of multidimensional constraints. We use the mathematical concept of viability to characterize sustainability. Recovery paths are studied with regards to their duration and their acceptability. This general framework is applied to the issue of recovering sustainable fisheries. We define sustainability in a fishery as the requirement that a set of economic, ecological, and social constraints is satisfied at all times. Recovery paths are characterized by the time required to obtain sustainable exploitation conditions in the fishery and by the acceptable recovery costs for fishermen. In particular, we identify the recovery path which minimizes the time of crisis under a minimum transition profit constraint. We then describe the trade-off between speed and accepted costs of recovery paths, by comparing “Hare”-like high-speed–high-cost strategies to “Tortoise”-like low-speed–low-cost strategies. We illustrate our results by means of a numerical analysis of the Bay of Biscay Nephrops fishery.     

How to Take into Account Uncertainty in Species Extinction Probabilities for Phylogenetic Conservation Prioritization

In this article, we are concerned with the general problem of choosing from a set of taxa T a subset S to protect in order to try to contribute to halting biodiversity loss as efficiently as possible given limited resources. The protection of a taxon decreases its extinction probability, and the impact of protecting the taxa of S is measured by the resulting expected phylogenetic diversity (ePD) of the set T. The primary challenge posed by this approach lies in determining the extinction probability of a taxon (protected or unprotected). To deal with this difficulty, the uncertainty about the extinction probabilities can be described through a set of possible scenarios, each corresponding to different extinction probability values for each taxon. We show how to determine an “optimal robust set” of taxa to protect, defined as the set of taxa that minimizes the maximum “regret,” i.e., the maximum relative gap, over all the scenarios, between (1) the ePD of T obtained by protecting the taxa of this set and (2) the ePD of T which would be produced by protecting the subset of taxa optimal for the considered scenario. In our experimental conditions covering 100 cases, this gap is almost always less than 1%. Consequently, the ePD of T obtained by protecting the taxa of the optimal robust set is not far from the maximum ePD of T that could have been obtained if we had known the true scenario. In other words, a way of escaping (in large part, at least) from the uncertainty related to the extinction probabilities of the taxa consists of choosing to protect those belonging to the optimal robust set. We also compare the optimal robust set to other relevant subsets of T.     

Ant cuticular response to phthalate pollution

Phthalates are common atmospheric contaminants used in the plastic industry. Ants have been shown to constitute good bioindicators of phthalate pollution. Hence, phthalates remain trapped on ant cuticles which are mostly coated with long-chain hydrocarbons. In this study, we artificially contaminated Lasius niger ants with four phthalates: dibutyl phthalate (DBP), diisobutyl phthalate (DiBP), di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), and benzyl butyl phthalate (BBP). The first three have previously been found on ants in nature in Touraine (France), while the fourth has not. The four phthalates disappeared rapidly (less than 5 days) from the cuticles of live ants. In contrast, on the cuticles of dead ants, DEHP quantities remained unchanged over time. These results indicate that phthalates are actively absorbed by the cuticles of live ants. Cuticular absorption of phthalates is nonspecific because eicosane, a nonnatural hydrocarbon on L. niger cuticle, was similarly absorbed. Ants are important ecological engineers and may serve as bioindicators of ecosystem health. We also suggest that ants and more generally terrestrial arthropods may contribute to the removal of phthalates from the local environment.     

Why seeking feedback from diverse sources may not be sufficient for stimulating creativity: The role of performance dynamism and creative time pressure

We explore how the impact of seeking feedback from different sources (i.e., feedback source variety) on employee creativity is shaped by perceptions of the work environment. Specifically, we argue that two contextual factors, namely, performance dynamism (Study 1) and creative time pressure (Study 2), moderate the relationship between feedback source variety and creativity such that under conditions of high performance dynamism and low creative time pressure, individuals benefit from diverse feedback information. In Study 1 (N = 1,031), the results showed that under conditions of high performance dynamism, the relationship between feedback source variety and self‐reported creativity was nonlinear, with employee creativity exponentially increasing as a function of feedback source variety. Similarly, in Study 2 (N = 181), we found that under conditions of low creative time pressure, the relationship between feedback source variety and employee creativity was nonlinear, with supervisor‐rated creative performance exponentially increasing at higher levels of feedback source variety. Such results highlight that the relationship between feedback source variety and creative performance is affected by the perceptions of the work environment in which feedback is sought.     

Altruism during predation in an assassin bug

Zelus annulosus is an assassin bug species mostly noted on Hirtella physophora, a myrmecophyte specifically associated with the ant Allomerus decemarticulatus known to build traps on host tree twigs to ambush insect preys. The Z. annulosus females lay egg clutches protected by a sticky substance. To avoid being trapped, the first three instars of nymphs remain grouped in a clutch beneath the leaves on which they hatched, yet from time to time, they climb onto the upper side to group ambush preys. Long-distance prey detection permits these bugs to capture flying or jumping insects that alight on their leaves. Like some other Zelus species, the sticky substance of the sundew setae on their forelegs aids in prey capture. Group ambushing permits early instars to capture insects that they then share or not depending on prey size and the hunger of the successful nymphs. Fourth and fifth instars, with greater needs, rather ambush solitarily on different host tree leaves, but attract siblings to share large preys. Communal feeding permits faster prey consumption, enabling small nymphs to return sooner to the shelter of their leaves. By improving the regularity of feeding for each nymph, it likely regulates nymphal development, synchronizing molting and subsequently limiting cannibalism.     

Ant-lepidopteran associations along African forest edges

Working along forest edges, we aimed to determine how some caterpillars can co-exist with territorially dominant arboreal ants (TDAAs) in tropical Africa. We recorded caterpillars from 22 lepidopteran species living in the presence of five TDAA species. Among the defoliator and/or nectarivorous caterpillars that live on tree foliage, the Pyralidae and Nymphalidae use their silk to protect themselves from ant attacks. The Notodontidae and lycaenid Polyommatinae and Theclinae live in direct contact with ants; the Theclinae even reward ants with abundant secretions from their Newcomer gland. Lichen feeders (lycaenid; Poritiinae), protected by long bristles, also live among ants. Some lycaenid Miletinae caterpillars feed on ant-attended membracids, including in the shelters where the ants attend them; Lachnocnema caterpillars use their forelegs to obtain trophallaxis from their host ants. Caterpillars from other species live inside weaver ant nests. Those of the genus Euliphyra (Miletinae) feed on ant prey and brood and can obtain trophallaxis, while those from an Eberidae species only prey on host ant eggs. Eublemma albifascia (Erebidae) caterpillars use their thoracic legs to obtain trophallaxis and trophic eggs from ants. Through transfer bioassays of last instars, we noted that herbivorous caterpillars living in contact with ants were always accepted by alien conspecific ants; this is likely due to an intrinsic appeasing odor. Yet, caterpillars living in ant shelters or ant nests probably acquire cues from their host colonies because they were considered aliens and killed. We conclude that co-evolution with ants occurred similarly in the Heterocera and Rhopalocera.     

Influence of interspecific competition on the recruitment behavior and liquid food transport in the tramp ant species Pheidole megacephala

This study was conducted on the reactions of Pheidole megacephala scouts when finding liquid food sources situated on territories marked by competing dominant ant species or on unmarked, control areas to see if the number of recruited nestmates is affected and if soldiers behave in ways adapted to the situation. We show that scouts recruit more nestmates, particularly soldiers, on marked rather than on unmarked areas. This recruitment allows P. megacephala to organize the defence and rapid depletion of these food sources prior to any contact with competitors. Soldiers can carry liquid foods both (1) in their crops like other Myrmicinae and (2), in a new finding concerning myrmicine ants, under their heads and thoraxes like certain poneromorph genera because the droplets adhere through surface tension strengths. Later, the liquids stored in the crop are distributed to nestmates through regurgitations during trophallaxis and the external droplets are distributed through social buckets, or the mode of liquid food transfer common in poneromorphs. Their flexibility to use or not use the latter technique, based on the situation, corroborates other reports that Pheidole soldiers have a relatively large behavioral repertoire.