An ecosystem model for estimating potential shellfish culture production in sheltered coastal waters

A generic ecosystem model has been developed for estimating the potential production of shellfish culture and the effect of that cultivation on the pelagic ecosystem in sheltered coastal waters. The model describes the dynamics of a simple food web, nutrient cycling and growth of shellfish. The design of the model is closely tied to the temporal and spatial scales that are important in determining the sustainable production level for a particular embayment. The pelagic ecosystem, mussel energetics, population dynamics and hydrodynamics are coupled to allow fully dynamic predictions of the effect of the shellfish density. When applied to Beatrix Bay, an intensive culture embayment in the Pelorus Sound of New Zealand, the model successfully captured main features of the observed system behaviour. The hydrodynamic regime of the bay controls mussel growth and production. Although high fluxes of water into the bay suppress nutrient and carbon cycling signals in the system, the model simulations demonstrated that the mussel cultivation can have considerable effects on the ecosystem of the bay including food depletion and nutrient cycling. One of the most obvious effects is nutrient enhancement through mussel excretion at low cultivation densities, which promotes primary production particularly during the N-limitation period in summer. The sensitivity analysis identified uncertainty in some parameters and indicated areas for which experimental studies could lead to model improvement. The modelling exercise has established a primary predictive tool for managing mussel aquaculture of a coastal embayment to estimate relationships between the stock level and the growth rate of mussels, and the potentially achievable harvest and stocking density.     

What happens when you trust your supervisor? Mediators of individual performance in trust relationships

To understand how trust in supervisor translates into individual job performance, we hypothesize that trust in supervisor facilitates positive psychological conditions of meaningfulness, safety, and availability, which in turn predict individual job performance. We assert that each of the three mediating paths in our model represents a distinct mechanism by which trust in supervisor contributes to individual job performance. We test our hypotheses with 206 supervisor–subordinate dyads and find that trust in supervisor contributes to job performance through psychological availability and psychological safety but not psychological meaningfulness. By examining three different psychological mechanisms within the same frame, we provide a test that compares and contrasts the uniqueness of the three pathways. Our findings suggest practical ways for managers to build trust with subordinates and guidance for the design of productive work conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Establishing the green neighbourhood: approaches to neighbourhood-scale sustainability certification in Portland,Oregon

ABSTRACT

While local governance is widely acknowledged as an important element in the pursuit of sustainability, local action alone is insufficient to produce lasting change. One recent solution to this quandary has been the production of certification frameworks that encourage sustainable development at the neighbourhood scale by providing local actors with standardised definitions of sustainable practices. While these frameworks facilitate the spread of sustainable development strategies between local communities, there are significant contrasts between their approaches to encouraging local sustainable development that simultaneously fulfils global objectives. This article explores these contrasts through two neighbourhood-scale sustainability certification frameworks: LEED for Neighborhood Development (LEED-ND) and the EcoDistricts Protocol. Analysis of these frameworks in the context of two centrally-located neighbourhoods in Portland, Oregon, reveals substantial contrasts between the two frameworks in terms of the relative flexibility of their sustainability metrics, the time frame over which decisions regarding sustainable development are made, and community involvement in the process of pursuing specific objectives. Furthermore, it suggests that greater flexibility in the application of standards, continuous governance, and greater community involvement lead to more dynamic and holistic forms of sustainability that evolve as both local community needs and broader understandings of sustainability change over time.     

Incorporating low-resolution historic species location data decreases performance of distribution models

Developing robust species distribution models is important as model outputs are increasingly being incorporated into conservation policy and management decisions. A largely overlooked component of model assessment and refinement is whether to include historic species occurrence data in distribution models to increase the data sample size. Data of different temporal provenance often differ in spatial accuracy and precision. We test the effect of inclusion of historic coarse-resolution occurrence data on distribution model outputs for 187 species of birds in Australian tropical savannas. Models using only recent (after 1990), fine-resolution data had significantly higher model performance scores measured with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) than models incorporating both fine- and coarse-resolution data. The drop in AUC score is positively correlated with the total area predicted to be suitable for the species (R² = 0.163-0.187, depending on the environmental predictors in the model), as coarser data generally leads to greater predicted areas. The remaining unexplained variation is likely to be due to the covariate errors resulting from resolution mismatch between species records and environmental predictors. We conclude that decisions regarding data use in species distribution models must be conscious of the variation in predictions that mixed-scale datasets might cause.     

Darwin’s “tug-of-war” vs. starlings’ “horse-racing”: how adaptations for sequential encounters drive simultaneous choice

Charles Darwin aided his private decision making by an explicit deliberation, famously deciding whether or not to marry by creating a list of points in a table with two columns: “Marry” and “Not Marry”. One hundred seventy-two years after Darwin’s wedding, we reconsider whether this process of choice, under which individuals assign values to their options and compare their relative merits at the time of choosing (the tug-of-war model), applies to our experimental animal, the European Starling, Sturnus vulgaris. We contrast this with the sequential choice model that postulates that decision-makers make no comparison between options at the time of choice. According to the latter, behaviour in simultaneous choices reflects adaptations to contexts with sequential encounters, in which the choice is whether to take an opportunity or let it pass. We postulate that, in sequential encounters, the decision-maker assigns (by learning) a subjective value to each option, reflecting its payoff relative to background opportunities. This value is expressed as latency and/or probability to accept each opportunity as opposed to keep searching. In simultaneous encounters, choice occurs through each option being processed independently, by a race between the mechanisms that generate option-specific latencies. We describe these alternative models and review data supporting the predictions of the sequential choice model.     

Is spread of invasive species regulated? Using ecological theory to interpret statistical analysis

We investigate a recent proposal that invasive species display patterns of spatial "spread regulation" analogous to density-dependent regulation of population abundances. While invasive species do offer valuable tests of ecological theories about spatial spread, we argue that the statistical approach used in the study is not useful, and that the proposed definition of "spread regulation" is likely to be confusing. While concepts of negative feedbacks in spatial spread may be reasonable, the proposed definition of "spread regulation" encompasses accelerating, constant, or decelerating spread. There is no compelling biological or practical reason to adopt such a definition. Moreover, we show that the statistical patterns (from time series of ratios of newly to recently invaded sites) proposed as evidence of spread regulation are predictable from basic diffusion models or other common models of constant spread with some stochasticity in dynamics and/or observations. Because such a wide range of processes would generate the observed patterns, no clear biological conclusions emerge from the proposed approach to spread analysis. When regarded in the context of the impacts and management of invasive species, the proposed regulation concept has the potential to create costly misunderstandings.     

Towards the development of a multidisciplinary understanding of the effects of toxic chemical mixtures on health

Mixtures can be divided into simple (chemicals with comparable properties—health risk assessments on the chemicals) and complex, which can be further subdivided into defined (a reasonably distinct composition, created at a specific time and place despite dissimilar components—risk assessments on the common source) and coincidental (chemicals without similar properties or constant composition in time or space—risk assessments on the receptor). Interactions recognized are: independent action, dose addition (additivity), and potentiation (synergy and antagonism). Unpredicted outcomes need recognition. New approaches in higher education and multidisciplinary investigations are essential. The community of the Society for Environmental Geochemistry and Health should help clarify points such as when transformations in mixtures may become important enough to alter the classification and the risk assessment. The multidisciplinary community is also well placed to support the integration of nonchemical influences into mixture analysis and to contribute to the investigation of cumulative and multiple exposures.     

Modelling of stable isotope fractionation by methane oxidation and diffusion in landfill cover soils

A technique to measure biological methane oxidation in landfill cover soils that is gaining increased interest is the measurement of stable isotope fractionation in the methane. Usually to quantify methane oxidation, only fractionation by oxidation is taken into account. Recently it was shown that neglecting the isotope fractionation by diffusion results in underestimation of the methane oxidation. In this study a simulation model was developed that describes gas transport and methane oxidation in landfill cover soils. The model distinguishes between (12)CH(4), (13)CH(4), and (12)CH(3)D explicitly, and includes isotope fractionation by diffusion and oxidation. To evaluate the model, the simulations were compared with column experiments from previous studies. The predicted concentration profiles and isotopic profiles match the measured ones very well, with a root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 1.7vol% in the concentration and a RMSD of 0.8 per thousand in the delta(13)C value, with delta(13)C the relative (13)C abundance as compared to an international standard. Overall, the comparison shows that a model-based isotope approach for the determination of methane oxidation efficiencies is feasible and superior to existing isotope methods.     

Numerical model to quantify biogenic volatile organic compound emissions: The Pearl River Delta region as a case study

This article compiles the actual knowledge of the biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions estimated using model methods in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, one of the most developed regions in China. The developed history of BVOC emission models is presented briefly and three typical emission models are introduced and compared. The results from local studies related to BVOC emissions have been summarized. Based on this analysis, it is recommended that local researchers conduct BVOC emission studies systematically, from the assessment of model inputs, to compiling regional emission inventories to quantifying the uncertainties and evaluating the model results. Beyond that, more basic researches should be conducted in the future to close the gaps in knowledge on BVOC emission mechanisms, to develop the emission models and to refine the inventory results. This paper can provide a perspective on these aspects in the broad field of research associated with BVOC emissions in the PRD region.