Ensemble Techniques to Improve Air Quality Assessment: Focus on O3 and PM

Five air quality models were applied over Portugal for July 2006 with an ensemble purpose. These models were used, with their own meteorology, parameterizations, boundary conditions and chemical mechanisms, but with the same emission data. The validation of the individual models and its ensemble for ozone (O₃) and particulate matter was performed using monitoring data from 22 background stations over Portugal. After removing the bias from each model, different ensemble techniques were applied and compared. Besides the median, several weighted ensemble approaches were tested and intercompared: static (SLR) and dynamic (DLR) multiple linear regressions (using less-square optimization method) and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methodology. The goal of the comparison is to estimate to what extent the ensemble analysis is an improvement with respect to the single model results. The obtained results revealed that no one of the 4 tested ensembles clearly outperforms the others on the basis of statistical parameters and probabilistic analysis (reliability and resolution properties). Nevertheless, statistical results have shown that the application of the weights slightly improves ensemble performance when compared to those obtained from the median ensemble. The same statistical analysis together with the probabilistic measures demonstrates that the SLR and BMA methods are the best performers amongst the assessed methodologies.     

Geochronology of anthropogenic radionuclides in Ribeira Bay sediments, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Ribeira Bay is located approximately 130 km south of the city of Rio de Janeiro and receives discharges of liquid effluent from the Angra dos Reis nuclear power plant (NPP) site, where two pressurized water reactors are located. To test whether the presence of anthropogenic radionuclides in sediments in Ribeira Bay could be correlated to the NPP operations, we sampled seven sediment cores and determined accumulation rates and chronologies. Only one sediment core did not exhibit a superficial mixing layer; this sample was used for dating purposes. Cesium-137 and ²⁰⁷Bi were observed in this sediment profile, but their presence was associated with atmospheric fall-out rather than the nearby NPP. The exponential decay of ²¹⁰Pb concentration with sediment layer depth was verified below a superficial mixing layer for all other sediment cores. Calculated accumulation rates ranged from 1.2 mm y⁻¹ in the inner bay to 6.2 mm y⁻¹ close to its entrance.     

Monitoring, fault detection and operation prediction of MSW incinerators using multivariate statistical methods

This work proposes the application of two multivariate statistical methods, principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least square (PLS), to a continuous process of a municipal solid waste (MSW) moving grate-type incinerator for process control - monitoring, fault detection and diagnosis - through the extraction of information from historical data. PCA model is built for process monitoring capable of detecting abnormal situations and the original 16-variable process dimension is reduced to eight, the first 4 being able to capture together 86% of the total process variation. PLS model is constructed to predict the generated superheated steam flow rate allowing for control of its set points. The model retained six of the original 13 variables, explaining together 90% of the input variation and almost 98% of the output variation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by applying those multivariate statistical methods to process data continuously measured in an actual incinerator. Both models exhibited very good performance in fault detection and isolation. In predicting the generated superheated steam flow rate for its set point control the PLS model performed very well with low prediction errors (RMSE of 3.1 and 4.1).     

Associations between forest characteristics and socio-economic development: a case study from Portugal

The integration of socio-economic and environmental objectives is a major challenge in developing strategies for sustainable landscapes. We investigated associations between socio-economic variables, landscape metrics and measures of forest condition in the context of Portugal. The main goals of the study were to 1) investigate relationships between forest conditions and measures of socio-economic development at national and regional scales, 2) test the hypothesis that a systematic variation in forest landscape metrics occurs according to the stage of socio-economic development and, 3) assess the extent to which landscape metrics can inform strategies to enhance forest sustainability. A ranking approach and statistical techniques such as Principal Component Analysis were used to achieve these objectives. Relationships between socio-economic characteristics, landscape metrics and measures of forest condition were only significant in the regional analysis of municipalities in Northern Portugal. Landscape metrics for different tree species displayed significant variations across socio-economic groups of municipalities and these differences were consistent with changes in characteristics suggested by the forest transition model. The use of metrics also helped inform place-specific strategies to improve forest management, though it was also apparent that further work was required to better incorporate differences in forest functions into sustainability planning.     

Regional integration and local change: road paving, community connectivity, and social–ecological resilience in a tri-national frontier, southwestern Amazonia

Initiatives for global economic integration increasingly prioritize new infrastructure in relatively remote regions. Such regions have relatively intact ecosystems and provide valuable ecosystem services, which has stimulated debates over the wisdom of new infrastructure. Most prior research on infrastructure impacts highlights economic benefits, ecological damage, or social conflicts. We suggest a more integrative approach to regional integration by appropriating the concepts of connectivity from transport geography and social?Cecological resilience from systems ecology. Connectivity offers a means of observing the degree of integration between locations, and social?Cecological resilience provides a framework to simultaneously consider multiple consequences of regional integration. Together, they offer a spatial analysis of resilience that considers multiple dimensions of infrastructure impacts. Our study case is the southwestern Amazon, a highly biodiverse region which is experiencing integration via paving of the Inter-Oceanic Highway. Specifically, we focus on the ??MAP?? region, a tri-national frontier where Bolivia, Brazil, and Peru meet and which differs in the extent of highway paving. We draw on a tri-national survey of more than 100 resource-dependent rural communities across the MAP frontier and employ indicators for multiple dimensions of connectivity and social?Cecological resilience. We pursue a comparative analysis among regions and subregions with differing degrees of community connectivity to markets in order to evaluate their social?Cecological resilience. The findings indicate that connectivity and resilience have a multifaceted relationship, such that greater community connectivity corresponds to greater resilience in some respects but not others. We conclude by noting how our findings integrate those from heretofore largely disparate literatures on infrastructure. The integration of transport geography with resilience thought thus stands to advance the study of infrastructure impacts.     

Biomarker responses as indication of contaminant effects in Oreochromis niloticus

The current study investigated oxidative stress parameters (enzymes activities, metallothionein content and lipid peroxidation) in freshwater fish, Oreochromis niloticus, tilapia exposure to Monjolinho River (in 4 months of year: January, April, July and November). One critical site in Monjolinho River (site B) was assessed in comparison to a reference site (site A). Water pH and oxygen concentration was lower than that recommended by CONAMA (Brazilian National Environmental Committee), resolution 357/2005 for protection of aquatic communities, and ammonium and the metals Cu, Zn, Mn and Fe (on all months) concentrations were higher than the maximum concentration recommended. Glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and superoxide dismutase (SOD) activities were significantly decreased in liver and muscle in tilapia from Monjolinho River, throughout the year, in relation to reference except in gills that SOD activity increased. Glutathione S-transferase (GST) activity was significantly increased in liver of the tilapia from Monjolinho River in all sites, in relation to reference except in gills that GST activity increased in July and decreased in November, suggesting that GST activity could be induced to neutralize the pollutants toxicity. On the other hand, GST activity was significantly decreased in white muscle indicating a toxic effect of pollutants, resulting in a decreased ability of tilapia to perform defense reactions associated to GSTs. The decrease of catalase (CAT) activity in gills of the O. niloticus together with the increase of SOD activity, could explain the increased lipid peroxidation (LPO) level in this organ. Metallothionein levels in liver and gills were significantly high in all sites. Results indicate that the exposure to metals caused severe damage to tissues; despite the consensually assumed antioxidant induction as a sign of exposure to contaminants the effects seem in part to be mediated by suppression of antioxidant system with SOD, CAT and GPx as potential candidates for tissues toxicity biomarkers of pollutants.     

Assessment of metal availability to vegetation (Betula pendula) in Pb-Zn ore concentrate residues with different features

In this work, characterisation of several ore concentrate remains from an abandoned Pb-Zn mining factory was performed determining chemical and physical properties such as pH, organic carbon content, particle size distribution, total heavy metal content (Pb, Zn, Cu, As and Cd) as well as mineralogical composition which showed, in most cases, the oxidization of the parent ore material (mostly galena: PbS and sphalerite: ZnS) to more mobile fractions as anglesite (PbSO(4)) and goslarite (ZnSO(4)). Moreover, two operational defined extraction procedures commonly used in soil and sediment studies (first and second steps of BCR procedure and DTPA extraction protocol) were applied in the different mining wastes in order to study Pb and Zn mobility and likely bioavailability to Betula pendula growing on the same mining spoils, which presents lead and zinc contents in leaves over ten times background values.     

Separate collection of the biodegradable fraction of MSW: an economic assessment

There is little experience in Portugal with the separate collection of the biodegradable fraction of municipal solid waste (MSW). Therefore, it is relevant to evaluate how this process could economically affect the actual practices of MSW collection in small municipalities. This article simulates the costs of collection by means of a fixed container system and a transfer station, using values from a municipality with a population of 28,000 inhabitants. The main goal of this exercise is to compare the economic effects of three alternative scenarios: (i) the traditional, unsorted collection; (ii) the separate collection of whole biowaste; and (iii) the separate collection of biowaste generated in the major urban communities, while setting aside the other biowaste for home composting. The input data are from 2001, and include waste quantities, travel times, work crew composition, crew time shifts, vehicles, and containers. Calculations of the proposed mathematical method were carried out using the Microsoft Excel software. This study concludes that the global cost for separate collection of biowaste (alternative ii) need not necessarily be higher than the corresponding cost of the traditional, unsorted method of collection (alternative i). Furthermore, the global cost for collection with separated biowaste and home composting (alternative iii) could also be lower than the corresponding cost of the traditional, unsorted method of collection.     

Effect of nitrogen amendment on respiration and respiratory quotient (RQ) in three hydrocarbon contaminated soils of different type

Three soil types (sandy gravel, silty clay and sandy loam) from sites historically contaminated with total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) were amended with NH(4)NO(3) at concentrations ranging from 16 to 2133 mg/kg soil(dry weight). Microbial activity was measured as O(2) consumption and CO(2) production in order to assess nitrogen limitation. Although activity was stimulated in all three soils under NH(4)NO(3) amendment (after 72 h), the level of nitrogen required was soil specific. For the sandy gravel and silty clay soils, O(2) consumption and CO(2) production both showed enhanced microbial activity when amended with 16 mg/kg soil(dry weight) NH(4)NO(3), whereas, these two parameters gave differing results for the sandy loam soil. Specifically, CO(2) production and O(2) consumption were stimulated with 66 mg/kg and 133 mg/kg soil(dry weight) of NH(4)NO(3) respectively. In addition, respiratory quotient kinetic analysis suggested different decomposition processes occurring in this soil under different NH(4)NO(3) amendment concentrations.