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11.
Uncertainty is definitely one of the key topics in environmental assessment and management. Typically, attempts to reduce uncertainty are subject to expenses. But how to compare and trade-off expenses and the reduced uncertainty? They only seldom allow the use of a single unit. Instead, the whole analysis and decision procedure is very subjective. This paper presents one approach to handle such problems, namely the combined use of Bayesian influence diagrams, and probabilistic risk attitude analysis. The approach was used in the evaluation of three alternatives for a real time river water quality forecasting system. A trade-off analysis of risk attitudes, costs and uncertainty indicated the levels of socioeconomic utility required for investments in the respective systems, and accordingly illuminated the impact of the uncertainties involved on inference and decision-making with various risk attitudes and discount rates.  相似文献   
12.
Herbarium plants were used as a material to study possible long-term changes in mineral elements of forest plants. Plants from South Norway collected in the period 1870 to 1930 were compared to plants collected in 1982. Relative to mineral contents in plants from 1870 to 1930, the 1982 material showed elevated levels of Zn, Cd, Rb, K, Mn and Ti and decreased levels of Sr, B, Ca and Mo in some of the plant species analysed. Most of these differences may be explained by changes in the environmental conditions, due to differences in chemical composition of precipitation, accelerated soil acidification and subsequent increasing mineral weathering. Consequently analysis of herbarium plants seems to provide valuable information about preindustrial levels of mineral elements and seems to detect changes in mineral elements brought about by recent anthropogenic activity.  相似文献   
13.
For detailed reconstructions of atmospheric metal deposition using peat cores from bogs, a comprehensive protocol for working with peat cores is proposed. The first step is to locate and determine suitable sampling sites in accordance with the principal goal of the study, the period of time of interest and the precision required. Using the state of the art procedures and field equipment, peat cores are collected in such a way as to provide high quality records for paleoenvironmental study. Pertinent field observations gathered during the fieldwork are recorded in a field report. Cores are kept frozen at -18 degree C until they can be prepared in the laboratory. Frozen peat cores are precisely cut into 1 cm slices using a stainless steel band saw with stainless steel blades. The outside edges of each slice are removed using a titanium knife to avoid any possible contamination which might have occurred during the sampling and handling stage. Each slice is split, with one-half kept frozen for future studies (archived), and the other half further subdivided for physical, chemical, and mineralogical analyses. Physical parameters such as ash and water contents, the bulk density and the degree of decomposition of the peat are determined using established methods. A subsample is dried overnight at 105 degree C in a drying oven and milled in a centrifugal mill with titanium sieve. Prior to any expensive and time consuming chemical procedures and analyses, the resulting powdered samples, after manual homogenisation, are measured for more than twenty-two major and trace elements using non-destructive X-Ray fluorescence (XRF) methods. This approach provides lots of valuable geochemical data which documents the natural geochemical processes which occur in the peat profiles and their possible effect on the trace metal profiles. The development, evaluation and use of peat cores from bogs as archives of high-resolution records of atmospheric deposition of mineral dust and trace elements have led to the development of many analytical procedures which now permit the measurement of a wide range of elements in peat samples such as lead and lead isotope ratios, mercury, arsenic, antimony, silver, molybdenum, thorium, uranium, rare earth elements. Radiometric methods (the carbon bomb pulse of (14)C, (210)Pb and conventional (14)C dating) are combined to allow reliable age-depth models to be reconstructed for each peat profile.  相似文献   
14.
Given the increasing interest in using peat bogs as archives of atmospheric metal deposition, the lack of validated sample preparation methods and suitable certified reference materials has hindered not only the quality assurance of the generated analytical data but also the interpretation and comparison of peat core metal profiles from different laboratories in the international community. Reference materials play an important role in the evaluation of the accuracy of analytical results and are essential parts of good laboratory practice. An ombrotrophic peat bog reference material has been developed by 14 laboratories from nine countries in an inter-laboratory comparison between February and October 2002. The material has been characterised for both acid-extractable and total concentrations of a range of elements, including Al, As, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, P, Pb, Ti, V and Zn. The steps involved in the production of the reference material (i.e. collection and preparation, homogeneity and stability studies, and certification) are described in detail.  相似文献   
15.
The Chesapeake Bay benthic index of biotic integrity (B-IBI) was developed to assess benthic community health and environmental quality in Chesapeake Bay. The B-IBI provides Chesapeake Bay monitoring programs with a uniform tool with which to characterize bay-wide benthic community condition and assess the health of the Bay. A probability-based design permits unbiased annual estimates of areal degradation within the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries with quantifiable precision. However, of greatest interest to managers is the identification of problem areas most in need of restoration. Here we apply the B-IBI to benthic data collected in the Bay since 1994 to assess benthic community degradation by Chesapeake Bay Program segment and water depth. We used a new B-IBI classification system that improves the reliability of the estimates of degradation. Estimates were produced for 67 Chesapeake Bay Program segments. Greatest degradation was found in areas that are known to experience hypoxia or show toxic contamination, such as the mesohaline portion of the Potomac River, the Patapsco River, and the Maryland mainstem. Logistic regression models revealed increased probability of degraded benthos with depth for the lower Potomac River, Patapsco River, Nanticoke River, lower York River, and the Maryland mainstem. Our assessment of degradation by segment and water depth provided greater resolution of relative condition than previously available, and helped define the extent of degradation in Chesapeake Bay.  相似文献   
16.
Marine mussels Mytilus sp. were transplanted on a monthly basis in cages over one year to oyster farms and harbours in the Arcachon Bay (France) in order to assess the water quality of the bay. Contaminant levels (organotin compounds, trace metals, PCBs and PAHs) were measured in tissues of transplanted mussels and mussels from a reference station, along with physiological parameters of the mussels (condition indexes, lipid content and dry weight). Four biomarkers (AChE: acetylcholinesterase activity, GST: gluthathione S-transferase activity, CAT: catalase activity and TBARS: thiobarbituric acid-reactive substance content) were also monitored. The remote stations monitored (oyster parks) exhibited no accumulation pattern of pollutants. Their respective concentrations therefore constitute a background level of the contamination in the bay ([TBT]= 30 ng Sn g(-1) dw, [SigmaHAPs]= 100 ng g(-1) dw, [SigmaPCBs]= 35 ng g(-1) dw). The elevated chemical contamination of the largest harbour of the bay, the Arcachon harbour, can be interpreted in terms of persistence of organotin compounds ([SigmaOTs]= 1500-2000 ng Sn g(-1) dw) and PAHs ([SigmaHAPs]= 4500-5000 ng g(-1) dw) in sediments and, to a lesser extent, of direct inputs of copper ([Cu]= 20 microg g(-1) dw in harbours versus 7 in oyster parks) and petrogenic PAHs ([methylphenanthrenes]= 1600 ng g(-1) dw in the dockyard versus 170 at the gas stations), related to the use of copper-based antifouling paints and to dockyard activity, respectively. However, the Arcachon Bay presents a low contamination level by PCBs and metals, including harbour stations. Furthermore, higher levels of other PAHs (particularly alkyl PAHs such as methylphenanthrenes/1600 ng g(-1) dw) not included in the 16 PAHs from the EPA priority list (usually studied in biomonitoring programmes/1500 ng g(-1) dw) in the Arcachon harbour underline the need to integrate these compounds in biomonitoring of highly PAH-polluted areas such as harbours in order to avoid misinterpretation of the biological responses observed. Biomarker responses were not able to discriminate the different chemical contamination levels recorded in the Arcachon Bay and rather reflected changes in environmental factors. Furthermore, the strong intraspecies variability of biological responses could be due to genetic differences of mussels from the Arcachon Bay. It is the first time that such an integrated monitoring is performed in the Arcachon Bay, also taking into account seasonal variations of chemical contents and biomarkers levels in mussel tissues.  相似文献   
17.
This paper presents methodology and results of a dynamic individual air pollution exposure model (DINEX) that calculates the hourly exposure for each adult in a panel study. Each of over 260 participants, through the use of a diary, provided information used in the model to calculate his/her personal, individualised exposure. The participants filled out the diary daily, hour by hour, over two, two month periods. The exposure assessment model coupled the diary information and results of an indoor/outdoor measurement program, with the results of dispersion modelling on an hourly basis for an industrial area in Norway. The estimated air pollution concentrations from the dispersion model, based on continuous meteorological measurements, were calibrated with air pollutant concentrations measured continuously.  相似文献   
18.
19.
In Maryland, U.S., an interim framework has recentlybeen developed for using biologically based thresholds, or `biocriteria', to assess the health of nontidal streams statewide at watershed scales. The evaluation of impairment is based on indices of biological integrity from the Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS). We applied logistic regression to quantify how the biotic integrity of streams at a local scale is affected by cumulative effects resulting from catchment land uses, point sources, and nearby transmission line rights-of-way. Indicators for land use were developed from the remote sensing National Land Cover Data and applied at different scales. We determined that the risk of local impairment in nontidal streams rapidly increases with increased urban land use in the catchment area. The average likelihood of failing biocriteria doubled with every 10% points increment in urban land, thus an increase in urban land use from 0 to 20% quadruples the risk of impairment. For the basins evaluated in this study, catchments with more than 40–50% urban land use had greater than 80% probability of failing biocriteria, on average. Inclusion of rights-of-way and point sources in the model did not significantly improve the fit for this data set, most likely because of their low numbers. The overall results indicate that our predictive modeling approach can help pinpoint stream ecosystems experiencing or vulnerable to degradation.  相似文献   
20.
在游泳池循环水处理的消毒工艺中,一般采用传统的氯化消毒.但氯化消毒是否适合日益发展的海水游泳馆的池水消毒,笔者从几种泳池消毒工艺的特点,应用发展情况,设备的投资和运行费用等角度,阐明海水游泳馆宜采用臭氧消毒工艺.  相似文献   
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