Reduction targets and abatement costs of developing countries resulting from global and developed countries’ reduction targets by 2050

The European Union (EU) has advocated an emission reduction target for developed countries of 80% to 95% below the 1990 level by 2050, and a global reduction target of 50%. Developing countries have resisted the inclusion of these targets in both the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements. This paper analyses what these targets would imply for emission targets, abatement costs and energy consumption of developing countries, taking into account the conditional emission reduction pledges for 2020. An 80% reduction target for developed countries would imply more stringent per capita emission targets for developing countries than developed countries by 2050. Moreover, abatement costs of developing countries would be higher than those of developed countries. An 85% to 90% reduction target for developed countries would result in similar per capita emission targets and abatement costs for developed and developing countries by 2050. Total reduction targets for developing countries would range from 30% to 40% below 2005 levels by 2050 and from 30% to 35% above 2005 levels by 2030. The 2030 target for China would be 40% to 45% above 2005 levels, compared to a target for the EU of 45% to 50% below 1990 and for the United States of America (USA) 30% to 35% below 1990. Emission target trajectories for Brazil, South Africa and China would peak before 2025 and for India by around 2025. From the analysis, we may conclude that from the viewpoint of developing countries either developed countries increase their target above 85%, and/or make substantial side-payments.     

Costs and benefits of differences in the timing of greenhouse gas emission reductions

Most modelling studies that explore long-term greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios focus on cost-efficient emission pathways towards a certain climate target, like the internationally agreed target to keep global temperature increase below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels (the 2 °C climate target). However, different timing of reductions lead to different transient temperature increase over the course of the century and subsequently to differences in the time profiles of not only the mitigation costs but also adaptation costs and residual climate change damage. This study adds to the existing literature by focussing on the implication of these differences for the evaluation of a set of three mitigation scenarios (early action, gradual action and delayed action), all three limiting global temperature increase below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, using different discount rates. The study shows that the gradual mitigation pathway is, for these discount rates, preferred over early or delayed action in terms of total climate costs and net benefits. The relative costs and benefits of the early or delayed mitigation action scenarios, in contrast, do strongly depend on the discount rate applied. For specific discount rates, these pathways might therefore be preferred for other reasons, such as reducing long-term uncertainty in climate costs by early action.     

The effect of different mitigation strategies on international financing of adaptation

Recent proposals at the UNFCCC meeting in Bali in December 2007 suggest that a 2% levy on the CDM could finance adaptation costs in developing regions. Other proposals include extending the scope of the levy to emissions trading. This study applies an Integrated Assessment Model to gain insight in the interactions between adaptation costs, residual damages and mitigation costs and to analyse the effectiveness of a 2% levy on both the CDM and emissions trading from developing countries. We show that adaptation is especially important in lower income regions where damages are higher. The revenues of a 2% levy strongly depend on both the climate mitigation target and the burden-sharing regime. A more stringent climate mitigation target results in more emissions trade and, in the longer run, less need for adaptation. Both factors increase the share of adaptation costs that can be funded. The burden-sharing regime strongly affects the revenues of a 2% levy as well: relatively more stringent targets for developed countries increase the revenues of a 2% levy. However, in the next two decades the share of adaptation that can be financed remains well below 20% in most cases. Additional funding mechanisms are therefore necessary to substantially finance adaptation costs in developing countries.     

Contagious cooperation,temptation, and ecosystem collapse

Real world observations suggest that social norms of cooperation can be effective in overcoming social dilemmas such as the joint management of a common pool resource—but also that they can be subject to slow erosion and sudden collapse. We show that these patterns of erosion and collapse emerge endogenously in a model of a closed community harvesting a renewable natural resource in which individual agents face the temptation to overexploit the resource, while a cooperative harvesting norm spreads through the community via interpersonal relations. We analyze under what circumstances small changes in key parameters (including the size of the community, and the rate of technological progress) trigger catastrophic transitions from relatively high levels of cooperation to widespread norm violation—causing the social–ecological system to collapse.     

Polymer types ingested by northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) and southern hemisphere relatives

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Although ingestion of plastic by tubenosed seabirds has been documented regularly, identification of the polymer composition of these plastics has...     

SPATIALLY OPTIMIZING FOREST MANAGEMENT SCHEDULES TO MEET STORMFLOW CONSTRAINTS1

ABSTRACT: A spatial optimization model is developed and used to limit cumulative effects resulting from storm events by strategically arranging and scheduling forest treatments to meet peak storm-flow constraints. A mixed integer forest management scheduling formulation is used to select the location and timing of forest treatments. The approach includes simulated spatial routing of storm-flows imbedded as hydrologic process constraints (in a nested schedule) within longer-term forest management planning periods in the mathematical programming model. Although difficult to solve, the model shows promise for further research.     

Ecosystem responses to reduced and oxidised nitrogen inputs in European terrestrial habitats

While it is well established that ecosystems display strong responses to elevated nitrogen deposition, the importance of the ratio between the dominant forms of deposited nitrogen (NH_x and NO_y) in determining ecosystem response is poorly understood. As large changes in the ratio of oxidised and reduced nitrogen inputs are occurring, this oversight requires attention. One reason for this knowledge gap is that plants experience a different NH_x:NO_y ratio in soil to that seen in atmospheric deposits because atmospheric inputs are modified by soil transformations, mediated by soil pH. Consequently species of neutral and alkaline habitats are less likely to encounter high NH₄⁺ concentrations than species from acid soils. We suggest that the response of vascular plant species to changing ratios of NH_x:NO_y deposits will be driven primarily by a combination of soil pH and nitrification rates. Testing this hypothesis requires a combination of experimental and survey work in a range of systems.