Spatial variance in multimedia mass balance models: comparison of LOTOS-EUROS and SimpleBox for PCB-153

The aim of this study was to determine whether nested generic box models can be used to predict spatial variance. An inter-comparison study was performed for the nested box model SimpleBox, and the spatially resolved model LOTOS-EUROS, using PCB-153 emissions in Europe as an example. We compared the two models concerning (1) average environmental concentrations, (2) spatial concentration variances, (3) spatial concentration patterns (maps), and (4) agreement with measured concentrations for the air and soil compartments. In SimpleBox, the spatial concentration variances and patterns were calculated subsequently for each separate grid cell surrounded by a regional and a continental shell with homogeneous, averaged circumstances. Average European PCB-153 concentrations calculated by LOTOS-EUROS and SimpleBox for the period 1981-2000 agree well for the air and soil compartments. Moreover, the predicted concentrations of both models are in line with the measured PCB-153 concentrations in Europe during that period. For PCB-153, the prediction of spatial concentration variances with the nested multimedia fate model SimpleBox performs adequately in most cases, except for the lower concentration boundary in the air compartment. It is concluded that SimpleBox can be used to predict the spatial maximum and average concentrations of PCB-153 in the air and soil compartments. The proposed method has to be tested systematically for different types of compounds, emission scenarios, environmental compartments and spatial scales in order to allow conclusions about the general applicability of the method.     

Validation of predicted exponential concentration profiles of chemicals in soils

Multimedia mass balance models assume well-mixed homogeneous compartments. Particularly for soils, this does not correspond to reality, which results in potentially large uncertainties in estimates of transport fluxes from soils. A theoretically expected exponential decrease model of chemical concentrations with depth has been proposed, but hardly tested against empirical data. In this paper, we explored the correspondence between theoretically predicted soil concentration profiles and 84 field measured profiles. In most cases, chemical concentrations in soils appear to decline exponentially with depth, and values for the chemical specific soil penetration depth (d(p)) are predicted within one order of magnitude. Over all, the reliability of multimedia models will improve when they account for depth-dependent soil concentrations, so we recommend to take into account the described theoretical exponential decrease model of chemical concentrations with depth in chemical fate studies. In this model the d(p)-values should estimated be either based on local conditions or on a fixed d(p)-value, which we recommend to be 10cm for chemicals with a log K(ow)>3.     

Sketching sustainable land use in Europe by 2040: a multi-stakeholder participatory approach to elicit cross-sectoral visions

The continuously growing global demands on a finite land resource will require better strategic policies and management of trade-offs to avoid conflicts between different land-use sectors. Visions of the future can support strategic planning by stimulating dialogue, building a consensus on shared priorities and providing long-term targets. We present a novel approach to elicit stakeholder visions of future desired land use, which was applied with a broad range of experts to develop cross-sectoral visions in Europe. The approach is based on (i) combination of software tools and facilitation techniques to stimulate engagement and creativity; (ii) methodical selection of stakeholders; (iii) use of land attributes to deconstruct the multifaceted sectoral visions into land-use changes that can be clustered into few cross-sectoral visions, and (iv) a rigorous iterative process. Three cross-sectoral visions of sustainable land use in Europe in 2040 emerged from applying the approach in participatory workshops involving experts in nature conservation, recreation, agriculture, forestry, settlements, energy, and water. The three visions—Best Land in Europe, Regional Connected and Local Multifunctional—shared a wish to achieve a land use that is sustainable through multifunctionality, resource use efficiency, controlled urban growth, rural renewal and widespread nature. However, they differ on the scale at which land services are provided—EU-wide, regional or local—reflecting the land-sparing versus land-sharing debate. We discuss the usefulness of the approach, as well as the challenges posed and solutions offered by the visions to support strategic land-use planning.

     

Fertility signaling—the proximate mechanism of worker policing in a clonal ant

In eusocial insects, the ability to regulate reproduction relies on cues that signal the presence of fertile individuals. We investigated the variation of cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) with reproductive status in Platythyrea punctata, an ant, in which all workers are capable of producing daughters from unfertilized eggs (thelytoky). Who reproduces is determined through dominance and worker policing. New reproductives, which developed their ovaries after separation from an old reproductive for a short period of time, were attacked by nonreproductives upon reintroduction into their colony. In contrast, aggression against new reproductives with fully developed ovaries, which had been separated over a longer period, was initiated by fights between old and new reproductives. CHC profiles varied with ovarian development. New reproductives were only attacked when they expressed a CHC profile similar to old reproductives, but not when it was similar to that of nonreproductives. CHCs appear to signal the fertility of individuals and induce policing behavior towards surplus reproductive workers.     

Factors related to seat belt use among fatally injured teenage drivers

PROBLEM: In the United States, teenage drivers have a higher crash risk and lower observed seat belt use than other age groups. METHOD: Seat belt use was examined for teenage (16-19 years) drivers who were fatally injured in traffic crashes occurring in the United States during the years 1995-2000. Vehicle, driver, and crash factors potentially related to belt use were examined. State differences in belt use rates among fatally injured teenage drivers were related to states' observed belt use rates for all ages and other state-level variables. RESULTS: During 1995-2000, mean belt use was 36% among fatally injured teenage drivers and 23% among fatally injured teenage passengers. One of the strongest predictors of higher belt use for both drivers and passengers was whether the crash occurred in a state with a primary seat belt law. Belt use rates for 1995-2000 for fatally injured teenage drivers ranged from 20% or less in six states to more than 60% in two states. States with the highest use rates were those with strong primary belt use laws and those with high rates of observed belt use for all ages. Lower belt use among fatally injured teenage drivers was associated with increasing age; male drivers; drivers of SUVs, vans, or pickup trucks rather than cars; older vehicles; crashes occurring late at night; crashes occurring on rural roadways; single vehicle crashes; and drivers with BACs of 0.10 or higher. Teenage driver belt use declined as the number of teenage passengers increased, but increased in the presence of at least one passenger 30 years or older. IMPACT ON TRAFFIC SAFETY: It is suggested that to increase teenage belt use, states should enact strong primary belt use laws and mount highly publicized efforts to enforce these laws. Graduated driver licensing systems should incorporate strong provisions that require seat belt use by teenage drivers and passengers.     

剑桥大学校长谈环境教育

■概览具有近８００年历史的剑桥大学绝对不是所谓的“象牙塔”——疯狂的教授们在脱离尘世的地方追求着所谓的“理想世界”。从一开始,剑桥大学就是为实用所建。早在５００年前这所古老大学的目标和任务就被描述如下：用正确的和实用的教育以确保始终都有为社会服务的精英人士。所以说我们在环境科学领域的努力也可以用以下三个词来描述：教育、科研和行动。许多大学都成立了独立的环境科学系,而剑桥却没有,为什么呢？有这样几条原因：首先,当环境研究开始被许多大学关注时,在剑桥早已有许多不同的系别在共同从事环境科学领域的研究;…     

Methane and carbon dioxide dynamics in wetland mesocosms: effects of hydrology and soils.

Methane and carbon dioxide fluxes in created and restored wetlands, and the influence of hydrology and soils on these fluxes, have not been extensively documented. Minimizing methane fluxes while maximizing productivity is a relevant goal for wetland restoration and creation projects. In this study we used replicated wetland mesocosms to investigate relationships between contrasting hydrologic and soil conditions, and methane and carbon dioxide fluxes in emergent marsh systems. Hydrologic treatments consisted of an intermittent flooding regime vs. continuously inundated conditions, and soil treatments utilized hydric vs. non-hydric soils. Diurnal patterns of methane flux were examined to shed light on the relationship between emergent macrophytes and methane emissions for comparison with vegetation-methane relationships reported from natural wetlands. Microbially available organic carbon content was significantly greater in hydric soils than nonhydric soils, despite similar organic matter contents in the contrasting soil types. Mesocosms with hydric soils exhibited the greatest rates of methane flux regardless of hydrology, but intermittent inundation of hydric soils produced significantly lower methane fluxes than continuous inundatation of hydric soils. Methane fluxes were not affected significantly by hydrologic regime in mesocosms containing non-hydric soils. There were no diurnal differences in methane flux, and carbon dioxide and methane fluxes were not significantly correlated. The highest rates of CO2 uptake occurred in the continuously inundated treatment with non-hydric soils, and there were no significant differences in nighttime respiration rates between the treatments. Implications for hydrologic design of created and restored wetlands are discussed.