Effects of publication bias on conservation planning

Conservation planners need reliable information on spatial patterns of biodiversity. However, existing data sets are skewed because some ecosystems, taxa, and locations are underrepresented. We determined how many articles have been published in recent decades on the biodiversity of different countries and their constituent provinces. We searched the Web of Science catalogues Science Citation Index (SCI) and Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) for biodiversity-related articles published from 1993 to 2016 that included country and province names. We combined data on research publication frequency with other provincial-scale factors hypothesized to affect the likelihood of research activity (i.e., economic development, human presence, infrastructure, and remoteness). Areas that appeared understudied relative to the biodiversity expected based on site climate likely have been inaccessible to researchers for reasons, notably armed conflict. Geographic publication bias is of most concern in the most remote areas of sub-Saharan Africa and South America. Our provincial-scale model may help compensate for publication biases in conservation planning by revealing the spatial extent of research needs and the low cost of redoing this analysis annually.     

Tracking a half century of media reporting on gray wolves

Natural resource and wildlife managers must balance the disparate priorities of a diversity of stakeholders. To manage these priorities, a firm understanding of topics salient to the public is needed. The media often report on issues of importance to the public; therefore, these reports may be a useful measure of public interest. However, efficient methods for distinguishing diverse topics related to a wildlife management issue reported in the media and changes in the salience of those topics have been lacking. We used latent Dirichlet allocation, a Bayesian mixture model, to quantitatively assess the salience of topics surrounding the gray wolf (Canis lupus), which was reintroduced to Idaho (U.S.A.) in 1995. We analyzed articles published from 1960 to 2015 in an Idaho newspaper. We identified 6 distinct topics associated with gray wolves: policy, hunting, biological status, implementation of management, recovery, and human-wolf conflict. The salience of topics pre- and postreintroduction of wolves (1995) and pre- and postdelisting of wolves from the U.S. Endangered Species Act (2009) differed significantly, underscoring that these events were turning points in how issues were being publicly discussed and framed. Articles written by the local reporters were more likely to report on topics regarding conflict between humans and wolves, whereas articles sourced from a national outlet reported more on topics pertaining to wolf policy and biological status. In the context of managing a contentious, far-ranging, and long-lived wildlife species, our methods can help guide the location and timing of a suite of management strategies (e.g., media relation plans and stakeholder engagement) that promote human-wildlife coexistence across different landscapes.     

MATERNAL SERUM ALPHA-FETOPROTEIN SCREENING FOR OPEN NEURAL TUBE DEFECTS IN TWIN PREGNANCIES

Data on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at 13–24 weeks' gestation in 46 twin pregnancies with open neural tube defects (22 with anencephaly, 24 with open spina bifida) and 169 unaffected twins were used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates associated with different cut-off levels. Using the conventional cut-off level of 2·5 multiples of the median (MoM) for unaffected singleton pregnancies of the same gestation and laboratory, the detection rate in twins was 99 per cent for anencephaly and 89 per cent for open spina bifida, with a false-positive rate of 30 per cent. Using a 5·0 MoM cut-off level to maintain a similar false-positive rate to that found among singleton pregnancies at 16–18 weeks' gestation (about 3 per cent), the detection rate was 83 per cent for anencephaly and 39 per cent for open spina bifida. Estimates are provided of the odds of having an affected twin pregnancy given a positive AFP result as well as the odds for individual women with a raised AFP level.     

Biological and economic optima in a tropical grazing ecosystem in Australia

Our aim in this study was to identify the economically optimal level of use of resources for a grazing system in tropical Australia and to compare it with the biological optimum. Grazing management trials were conducted in the Ord River irrigation area of north-western Australia. Biologists at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization provided the biological data. The liveweight gains of Kimberley shorthorn steers were recorded, after a 1-year fattening period, for different grazing management strategies. Five different stocking rates were used on irrigated pangola grass (Digitaria decumbens) fertilized with nitrogen at five different rates. All other were applied at fixed, non-limiting levels.The results of the trials were modelled by a liveweight gain production function. This production function was used in an income simulation model to identify economically optimal (profit maximizing) stocking rates. This was done in two stages. First, a base analysis was undertaken on the basis o the economic conditions prevailing in September 1987. Second, sensitivity analysis was applied to the results of the base analysis. The parameters varied were the rate of interest, store cattle prices, finished cattle prices, transport costs and the length of the planning horizon.The biological optimum, when defined as maximum liveweight gain ha⁻¹, corresponds to a much higher intensity of use of resources than the economic optimum, and yields substantially lower profits or higher losses. These discrepancies increase when economic conditions worsen, or when the planning horizon of graziers is decreased from 50 to 10 years. Therefore, the adoption of the biological optimum cannot result in an econonomically stable grazing system in the medium to long term, when it is highly likely that economic parameters will fluctuate. The economic stability of the system is increased, but is still quite weak, if the economically optimal input combination is utilized. It was not possible to determine whether this economic optimum would result in long-term ecological stability because the relevant data were not collected during the trials.The relevance of management recommendations made to graziers and land administrators would be increased if these recommendations were based on an analysis of both the economic and the ecological stability of grazing systems over the medium to long term. We show in the last part of this study how this could be accomplished.     

Resolution of DNA linkage discrepancies through analysis of a VNTR locus in a family study of cystic fibrosis

First-trimester prenatal diagnosis of a fetus at 25 per cent risk for cystic fibrosis (CF) was performed by indirect linkage analysis of polymorphic markers using Southern blotting and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification. The results revealed discrepancies in the allelic patterns between the father and the affected child, thereby complicating the prediction of fetal outcome. Analysis of a highly polymorphic VNTR locus within the human retinoblas-toma (RB) gene on chromosome 13 showed that the affected child and the fetus did not have the same biological father, and therefore the affected child could not be used to determine linkage of markers in the father of the fetus. The analysis of VNTR loci can be an effective method of resolving conflicting data during prenatal diagnosis of monogenic diseases.     

Investigation of the Potential Antimicrobial Efficacy of Sealants Used in HVAC Systems

ABSTRACT

Recent experiments confirm field experience that duct cleaning alone may not provide adequate protection from regrowth of fungal contamination on fiberglass duct liner (FGDL). Current recommendations for remediation of fungally contaminated fiberglass duct materials specify complete removal of the materials. But removal of contaminated materials can be extremely expensive. Therefore, a common practice in the duct-cleaning industry is the postcleaning use of antimicrobial surface coatings with the implication that they may contain or limit regrowth.

Little information is available on the efficacy of these treatments. This paper describes a study to evaluate whether three commercially available antimicrobial coatings, placed on a cleaned surface that 1 year previously had been actively growing microorganisms, would be able to prevent regrowth. The three coatings contained different active antimicrobial compounds. All three of the coatings were designed for use on heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system components or interior surfaces of lined and unlined duct systems. Coating I was a polyacrylate copolymer containing zinc oxide and borates. Coating II was an acrylic coating containing decabromodiphenyl oxide and antimony trioxide. Coating III was an acrylic primer containing a phosphated quaternary amine complex.

The study included field and laboratory assessments. The three treatments were evaluated in an uncontrolled field setting in an actual duct system. The laboratory study broadened the field study to include a range of humidities under controlled conditions. Both static and dynamic chamber laboratory experiments were performed. The results showed that two of the three antimicrobial coatings limited the regrowth of fungal contamination, at least in the short term (the 3-month time span of the study); the third did not. Before use in the field, testing of the efficacy of antimicrobial coatings under realistic use conditions is recommended because antimicrobials have different baseline activities and interact differently with the substrate that contains them and their local environment.