Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

Does safety climate moderate the influence of staffing adequacy and work conditions on nurse injuries?

PROBLEM: Hospital nurses have one of the highest work-related injury rates in the United States. Yet, approaches to improving employee safety have generally focused on attempts to modify individual behavior through enforced compliance with safety rules and mandatory participation in safety training. We examined a theoretical model that investigated the impact on nurse injuries (back injuries and needlesticks) of critical structural variables (staffing adequacy, work engagement, and work conditions) and further tested whether safety climate moderated these effects. METHOD: A longitudinal, non-experimental, organizational study, conducted in 281 medical-surgical units in 143 general acute care hospitals in the United States. RESULTS: Work engagement and work conditions were positively related to safety climate, but not directly to nurse back injuries or needlesticks. Safety climate moderated the relationship between work engagement and needlesticks, while safety climate moderated the effect of work conditions on both needlesticks and back injuries, although in unexpected ways. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our findings suggest that positive work engagement and work conditions contribute to enhanced safety climate and can reduce nurse injuries.     

The theory of planned behavior as mediator of the effect of parental supervision: a study of intentions to violate driving rules in a representative sample of adolescents

INTRODUCTION: The study reported here was designed to test the ability of the theory of planned behavior to mediate the effect of parental supervision on adolescents' intentions to violate driving rules. METHOD: A representative sample of 1,654 adolescents completed questionnaires during individual and anonymous interviews carried out at their schools. RESULTS: Results showed that age, gender, prior risky driving-behavior, and parental supervision significantly predict intentions to violate driving rules. Attitude and the subjective norm partially mediate the effect of age, prior behavior, and parental supervision. Perceived behavioral control does not predict intention and is not predicted by other variables. IMPACT: The results suggest that social cognitive variables partially mediate the effect of parenting practices such as supervision.     

Last Glacial mammals in South America: a new scenario from the Tarija Basin (Bolivia)

The chronology, sedimentary history, and paleoecology of the Tarija Basin (Bolivia), one of the richest Pleistocene mammalian sites in South America, are revised here based on a multidisciplinary study, including stratigraphy, sedimentology, geomorphology, paleontology, isotope geochemistry, and ¹⁴C geochronology. Previous studies have indicated a Middle Pleistocene age for this classic locality. We have been able to obtain a series of ¹⁴C dates encompassing all the fossil-bearing sequences previously studied in the Tarija Basin. The dated layers range in age from about 44,000 to 21,000 radiocarbon years before present (BP), indicating that the Tarija fauna is much younger than previously thought. Glacial advances correlated to marine isotopic stages (MIS) 4 and 2 (ca. 62 and 20 ka BP, respectively) are also documented at the base and at the very top of the Tarija–Padcaya succession, respectively, indicating that the Bolivian Altiplano was not dry but sustained an ice cap during the Last Glacial Maximum. The results of this multidisciplinary study enable us to redefine the chronological limits of the Tarija sequence and of its faunal assemblage and to shift this paleontological, paleoclimatological, and paleoecological framework to the time interval from MIS 4 to MIS 2.     

Time allocation between work and recreation and the associated injury risks among young people

PROBLEM: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between overall risk of injury and time use patterns between work and active recreation among adolescents and young adults. METHODS: Using a representative sample of 9,795 Canadians aged 15-24 years, a multivariate logistic regression on the likelihood of any medically attended injury was conducted, including sociodemographic, individual, and time factors. RESULTS: Young people who engaged in a combination of high work and high activity hours were twice as likely to sustain a medically attended injury compared to those who worked low hours, but did not participate in any recreational activity. Those respondents who were not in school had a 43% increase in injury risk compared to full-time students. SUMMARY: Our findings suggest that injury risk was not a simple function of fatigue and cumulative exposure time. Our findings suggest the importance of considering time use and the associated injury risk tradeoffs. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Relevant to state and federal work safety policy makers, our findings suggest the importance of understanding where youth might otherwise spend their time if constraint were placed on their employment opportunities, and the associated injury risk tradeoffs must be taken into consideration.     

A direct observation study of nighttime safety belt use in Indiana

INTRODUCTION: Nearly all direct observation studies of safety belt use are conducted exclusively during daylight hours. Recent work has suggested that safety belt use at night may differ from daytime belt use. METHODS: An observational study of nighttime safety belt use, utilizing specialized night vision equipment, was conducted in Indiana surrounding the Click It or Ticket 2006 safety belt mobilization activities. A pre- and a post-mobilization statewide direct observation survey was conducted at night coinciding with daytime safety belt use data collection conducted by the state of Indiana. Daytime and nighttime belt use rates were compared. RESULTS: The comparisons across the mobilization period revealed a significant increase during the day, but a significant decrease at night. Comparisons between daytime and nighttime belt use revealed no overall difference during the pre wave, but a significant difference during the post wave. Finally, many common daytime trends in belt use were also found at night, with the exception of the typical age and seating position effects. DISCUSSION: The mobilization activities had a positive effect on daytime belt use, but no effect on nighttime belt use, likely resulting in the differences between daytime and nighttime belt use observed during the post wave. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The findings of this study suggest that safety belt mobilizations implemented only during the day do not influence nighttime safety belt use. Changes to how these programs are implemented or additional programs specifically targeting belt use at night should be considered, along with continued monitoring of nighttime belt use.     

Implementation of Washington State's zero tolerance law: patterns of arrests, dispositions, and recidivism

OBJECTIVES: Zero tolerance (ZT) laws have been effective in reducing alcohol-related crashes among underage drivers. However, enforcement in some states has not been rigorous, and ZT offenses may not be viewed as serious offenses. On July 1, 1994, the state of Washington implemented a ZT law that allowed police to request a test for alcohol on suspicion of either a ZT or driving-under-the-influence (DUI) offense. The present study examined effects of the ZT law on arrests and case dispositions among underage offenders as a function of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and post-law patterns of recidivism. METHODS: Times-series analyses examined the effects of the ZT law on trends in arrests of underage drivers between 1991 and 1999. Based on arrest records matched with driver's license records, the effects of the law on dispositions of alcohol-related offenses among underage drivers were examined, and rates of recidivism among underage offenders were examined for the period following the ZT law. RESULTS: There was a substantial increase in arrests of underage drivers beginning immediately after implementation of the ZT law, especially among drivers with low BACs. The types of court or administrative dispositions received by underage offenders changed markedly after the ZT law was implemented. Underage offenders with lower BACs became far more likely to receive alcohol-related convictions and/or license suspensions. However, the percentage of underage offenders with higher BACs receiving DUI convictions declined as some of these offenders received the lesser ZT disposition. After the ZT law, underage offenders with BACs of 0.10 g/dL or higher were more likely to recidivate than those with lower BACs, but appreciable proportions of drivers were re-arrested for another alcohol offense, whatever the BAC and however they were penalized. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of Washington's law indicates that a ZT law can increase the likelihood that an underage person will be sanctioned for drinking and driving. However, recidivism remains an issue as more than one in four underage drivers arrested with low BACs subsequently were re-arrested.     

Preventing alcohol-related convictions: the effect of a novel curriculum for first-time offenders on DUI recidivism

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether DUI offenders can better avoid future drinking and driving by controlling their vehicle usage rather than by controlling their drinking. METHODS: Using a randomized experimental post-test only design, 9,571 first-time DUI offenders were randomly assigned to receive one of two 12-hour educational programs: a traditional DUI curriculum or the PARC (Preventing Alcohol-Related Convictions) curriculum, which uses a novel theoretical approach to preventing DUI recidivism. Whereas traditional programs focus on participants controlling their drinking to avoid future drinking and driving, the PARC curriculum focuses on participants controlling their driving. Instead of trying to control alcohol consumption after driving to a drinking venue (previously found to be a flawed strategy), PARC teaches students to make a decision before leaving home not to drive to a drinking event, thus greatly limiting the possibility of drinking and driving. Driving records were obtained from the Florida Department of Motor Vehicles using driver's license numbers to assess DUI recidivism rates among the students in the PARC and Traditional curricula for the first year following program participation and again at 2 years post-intervention. RESULTS: Binary logistic regression analyses revealed that offenders receiving the PARC curriculum exhibited significantly lower 1-year and 2-year recidivism rates than those receiving the Traditional curriculum. The effect was consistent across two different measures of recidivism, and across gender, race, ethnicity, and location. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that the PARC educational approach may be more effective than the traditional approach in reducing DUI recidivism.     

Nuptial coloration of red shiners (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyprinella lutrensis</Emphasis>) is more intense in turbid habitats

Communication is shaped and constrained by the signaling environment. In aquatic habitats, turbidity can reduce both the quantity and quality of ambient light and has been implicated in the breakdown of visual signaling. Here, we examined the relationship between turbidity (quantified with long-term data) and the expression of carotenoid-based nuptial coloration in the red shiner (Cyprinella lutrensis), a small-bodied cyprinid. Males in more turbid habitats displayed redder fins, and an experimental manipulation of adult diet suggested that carotenoid intake alone did not explain among-population color differences. These results run counter to similar studies where signal expression decreased in turbid conditions, and may be explained by the non-territorial red shiner mating system, interactions between the mechanism of coloration and the signaling environment, or reduced cost of color expression in turbid habitats (e.g., reduced predation risk). Our results highlight how the behavioral and ecological contexts in which signals function can shape evolutionary responses to the environment.