Recent climate change in the Prince Edward County winegrowing region,Ontario, Canada: implications for adaptation in a fledgling wine industry

There is mounting evidence that climate change is already having an impact on the wine industry, with effects being region specific. In order to understand the capacity of regional wine sectors to adapt to changing climate, it is useful to document the conditions that are important to producers and to identify adaptation and management strategies that are employed in the industry. This paper analyzes climatic conditions and adaptation strategies in the wine region of Prince Edward County Ontario, Canada. Wine producers identified the climate variables most important to their operations and described strategies they use to manage climate-related conditions. The identified variables were analyzed for trends over the study period 1987–2011, and interview data were analyzed in order to categorize adaptive strategies. Results indicate that the wine sector is very sensitive to climate, and the region is already experiencing the effects of climate change, especially with regard to increasing growing season mean minimum daily temperatures, increasing total summer rainfall, and later onset of fall frosts. Adaptive strategies employed by producers are largely learned though collaborative efforts and trial and error. The adaptations are mostly tactical and reactive in the short term, but with continued climate change, these strategies may develop into strategic, anticipatory measures. Climate change has the potential to present both challenges and opportunities to Prince Edward County wine producers, and adaptations will continue to require strong networking and collaborative efforts.     

Predicting ozone levels

This paper presents a statistical model that is capable of predicting ozone levels from precursor concentrations and meteorological conditions during daylight hours in the Shuaiba Industrial Area (SIA) of Kuwait. The model has been developed from ambient air quality data that was recorded for one year starting from December 1994 using an air pollution mobile monitoring station. The functional relationship between ozone level and the various independent variables has been determined by using a stepwise multiple regression modelling procedure. The model contains two terms that describe the dependence of ozone on nitrogen oxides (NOx) and nonmethane hydrocarbon precursor concentrations, and other terms that relate to wind direction, wind speed, sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and solar energy. In the model, the levels of the precursors are inversely related to ozone concentration, whereas SO₂ concentration, wind speed and solar radiation are positively correlated. Typically, 63 % of the variation in ozone levels can be explained by the levels of NOx. The model is shown to be statistically significant and model predictions and experimental observations are shown to be consistent. A detailed analysis of the ozone-temperature relationship is also presented; at temperatures less than 27 °C there is a positive correlation between temperature and ozone concentration whereas at temperatures greater than 27 °C a negative correlation is seen. This is the first time a non-monotonic relationship between ozone levels and temperature has been reported and discussed.     

Fate of disinfection by-products in groundwater during aquifer storage and recovery with reclaimed water

Knowledge on the behaviour of disinfection by-products (DBPs) during aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is limited even though this can be an important consideration where recovered waters are used for potable purposes. A reclaimed water ASR trial in an anoxic aquifer in South Australia has provided some of the first quantitative information at field-scale on the fate and transport of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs). The results revealed that THM half-lives varied from <1 to 65 days, with persistence of chloroform being highest and bromoform lowest. HAA attenuation was rapid (<1 day). Rates of THM attenuation were shown to be highly dependent on the geochemical environment as evidenced by the 2-5 fold reduction in half-lives at the ASR well which became methanogenic during the storage phase of the trial, as compared to an observation well situated 4 m away, which remained nitrate-reducing. These findings agree with previous laboratory-based studies which also show persistence declining with increased bromination of THMs and reducing redox conditions. Modelling suggests that the chlorinated injectant has sufficient residual chlorine and natural organic matter for substantial increases in THMs to occur within the aquifer, however this is masked in some of the field observations due to concurrent attenuation, particularly for the more rapidly attenuated brominated compounds. The model is based on data taken from water distribution systems and may not be representative for ASR since bromide and ammonia concentrations in the injected water and the possible role of organic carbon in the aquifer were not taken into consideration. During the storage phase DBP formation potentials were reduced as a result of the removal of precursor material despite an increase in the THM formation potential per unit weight of total organic carbon. This suggests that water quality improvements with respect to THMs and HAAs can be achieved through ASR in anoxic aquifers.     

The effect of low molecular weight chelators on iron chelation and free radical generation as studied by ESR measurement

The purpose of this work was to improve our current knowledge of the non-enzymatic mechanisms involved in brown rot fungal decay of wood, but also to improve our understanding of chelator-mediated reactions that may occur in other biological systems where low pH conditions may prevail. Several key steps (iron chelation and reduction) during early non-enzymatic wood decay processes have been studied by using electron spin resonance (ESR). It has been proposed that low molecular weight chelators as well as Fenton reagents are involved in brown rot decay, at least in early non-enzymatic stages. In this work, the binding between a catecholate model chelator and ferric iron was studied by ESR spectroscopy. The effects of the model chelator, Fenton reagents, as well as the reaction conditions on free radical generation were also studied using ESR spin-trapping techniques. The results indicate: (1) The relative quantity of the chelator-iron complex can be determined by measurement of the intensities of the characteristic g = 4.3 ESR signal. (2) The effects of the chelator:iron ratio, the pH, and other reaction parameters on the hydroxyl radical generation in a Fenton type system can be determined using ESR spin-trapping techniques. (3) Data support the hypothesis that superoxide radicals are involved in chelator-mediated Fenton processes.     

Multiple paternity in a wild population of northern water snakes,Nerodia sipedon

Summary For most animal species, a single mating is sufficient to fertilize all of a female's offspring. As a result, females do not usually increase their reproductive success with successive matings. However, multiple paternity has been discovered in many animal taxa. We demonstrate that the majority of female water snakes in a wild population mate with more than one male for each litter. Field observations indicated that a highly skewed operational sex ratio (3.6:1 M : F) during the breeding season, while not necessary for multiple paternity to occur, created ample opportunity for females to mate multiply. Protein electrophoretic analysis showed that at least 12 of 14 litters from naturally mated females had more than one father. Since male snakes can not force copulations, multiple matings seem likely to be the result of female choice. Offprint requests to: F.E. Barry     

Can Nutrient Spiralling be Used to Detect Seasonal Nutrient Uptake in a Forested Stream?

Nutrient spiralling measurements were conducted in Lyrebird Creek, a forested stream in the Dandenong Ranges, Victoria, Australia. Spiralling indices from several nutrient (, ) enrichment experiments were correlated with seasonal variation in factors thought to control nutrient uptake, i.e., temperature, light and algal biomass. It was hypothesized that nutrient uptake would be higher in summer as increased temperatures would promote both biotic and abiotic processes and higher light levels in summer would stimulate photosynthesis. However, results did not support this hypothesis. Uptake length for and and uptake velocity were not correlated with chlorophyll-a, light or temperature (r ² < 0.30, P > 0.1) despite the seasonality of these biophysical factors (r ² > 0.42, P < 0.02). Lyrebird Creek might had no seasonal trend in nutrient uptake and/or nutrient spiraling measurements only appears suitable for contrasting streams with large differences in biophysical factors that supports biotic and abiotic nutrient processing. In addition, small errors in measuring a nutrient concentration can result in a large range in the estimated S _w and increased difficulty in determining significant differences in nutrient spiralling indices.     

Ecological impacts and management strategies for western larch in the face of climate-change

Approximately 185,000 forest inventory and ecological plots from both USA and Canada were used to predict the contemporary distribution of western larch (Larix occidentalis Nutt.) from climate variables. The random forests algorithm, using an 8-variable model, produced an overall error rate of about 2.9 %, nearly all of which consisted of predicting presence at locations where the species was absent. Genetic variation among 143 populations within western larch’s natural distribution was predicted from multiple regression models using variables describing the climate of the seed source as predictors and response data from two separate genetic tests: 1) 15-year height at a field site in British Columbia, Canada, and, 2) two principal components of 8 variables describing growth, disease tolerance, and phenology of 6-year-old trees in a test in Idaho, USA. Presence and absence of the species and genetic variation within the species were projected into future climates provided by three General Circulation Models and two scenarios. Although the projections described pronounced impacts on the species and its populations, concurrence among the six projections pinpointed areas where the probability would be high that the future climate would be suitable for western larch. Concurrence among projections also was used to locate those sources of seed that should be best attuned genetically to future climates. The procedures outline a logical approach for developing management strategies for accommodating climate-change while taking into account the variability imposed by the differences among climatic estimates.     

Atmospheric oxidation capacity in the summer of Houston 2006: Comparison with summer measurements in other metropolitan studies

Both similarities and differences in summertime atmospheric photochemical oxidation appear in the comparison of four field studies: TEXAQS2000 (Houston, 2000), NYC2001 (New York City, 2001), MCMA2003 (Mexico City, 2003), and TRAMP2006 (Houston, 2006). The compared photochemical indicators are OH and HO₂ abundances, OH reactivity (the inverse of the OH lifetime), HO_x budget, OH chain length (ratio of OH cycling to OH loss), calculated ozone production, and ozone sensitivity. In terms of photochemical activity, Houston is much more like Mexico City than New York City. These relationships result from the ratio of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to nitrogen oxides (NO_x), which are comparable in Houston and Mexico City, but much lower in New York City. Compared to New York City, Houston and Mexico City also have higher levels of OH and HO₂, longer OH chain lengths, a smaller contribution of reactions with NO_x to the OH reactivity, and NO_x-sensitivity for ozone production during the day. In all four studies, the photolysis of nitrous acid (HONO) and formaldehyde (HCHO) are significant, if not dominant, HO_x sources. A problematic result in all four studies is the greater OH production than OH loss during morning rush hour, even though OH production and loss are expected to always be in balance because of the short OH lifetime. The cause of this discrepancy is not understood, but may be related to the under-predicted HO₂ in high NO_x conditions, which could have implications for ozone production. Three photochemical indicators show particularly high photochemical activity in Houston during the TRAMP2006 study: the long portion of the day for which ozone production was NO_x-sensitive, the calculated ozone production rate that was second only to Mexico City's, and the OH chain length that was twice that of any other location. These results on photochemical activity provide additional support for regulatory actions to reduce reactive VOCs in Houston in order to reduce ozone and other pollutants.