Understanding the Effectiveness of Precursor Reductions in Lowering 8-Hr Ozone Concentrations—Part II. The Eastern United States

Abstract

Analyses of ozone (O₃) measurements in conjunction with photochemical modeling were used to assess the feasibility of attaining the federal 8-hr O₃ standard in the eastern United States. Various combinations of volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) emission reductions were effective in lowering modeled peak 1-hr O₃ concentrations. VOC emissions reductions alone had only a modest impact on modeled peak 8-hr O₃ concentrations. Anthropogenic NO_x emissions reductions of 46–86% of 1996 base case values were needed to reach the level of the 8-hr standard in some areas. As NO_x emissions are reduced, O₃ production efficiency increases, which accounts for the less than proportional response of calculated 8-hr O₃ levels. Such increases in O₃ production efficiency also were noted in previous modeling work for central California. O₃ production in some urban core areas, such as New York City and Chicago, IL, was found to be VOC-limited. In these areas, moderate NO_x emissions reductions may be accompanied by increases in peak 8-hr O₃ levels. The findings help to explain differences in historical trends in 1- and 8-hr O₃ levels and have serious implications for the feasibility of attaining the 8-hr O₃ standard in several areas of the eastern United States.     

Precursor reductions and ground-level ozone in the Continental United States

Numerous papers analyze ground-level ozone (O₃) trends since the 1980s, but few have linked O₃ trends with observed changes in nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and ambient concentrations. This analysis of emissions and ambient measurements examines this linkage across the United States on multiple spatial scales from continental to urban. O₃ concentrations follow the general decreases in both NO_x and VOC emissions and ambient concentrations of precursors (nitrogen dioxide, NO₂; nonmethane organic compounds, NMOCs). Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8-hr average ozone and annual average or 98th percentile daily maximum hourly NO₂ concentrations show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear fit whose slope is less than 1:1 and intercept is in the 30 to >50 ppbv range. This empirical relationship is consistent with current understanding of O₃ photochemistry. The linear O₃–NO₂ relationships found from our multispatial scale analysis can be used to extrapolate the rate of change of O₃ with projected NO_x emission reductions, which suggests that future declines in annual fourth-highest daily average 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations are unlikely to reach 65 ppbv or lower everywhere in the next decade. Measurements do not indicate increased annual reduction rates in (high) O₃ concentrations beyond the multidecadal precursor proportionality, since aggressive measures for NO_x and VOC reduction are in place and have not produced an accelerated O₃ reduction rate beyond that prior to the mid-2000s. Empirically estimated changes in O₃ with emissions suggest that O₃ is less sensitive to precursor reductions than is found by the CAMx (v. 6.1) photochemical model. Options for increasing the rate of O₃ change are limited by photochemical factors, including the increase in NO_x sensitivity with time (NMOC/NO_x ratio increase), increase in O₃ production efficiency at lower NO_x concentrations (higher O₃/NO_y ratio), and the presence of natural NO_x and NMOC precursors and background O₃.

Implications:?This analysis demonstrates empirical relations between O₃ and precursors based on long term trends in U.S. locations. The results indicate that ground-level O₃ concentrations have responded predictably to reductions in VOC and NO_x since the 1980s. The analysis reveals linear relations between the highest O₃ and NO₂ concentrations. Extrapolation of the historic trends to the future with expected continued precursor reductions suggest that achieving the 2014 proposed reduction in the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard to a level between 65 and 70 ppbv is unlikely within the next decade. Comparison of measurements with national results from a regulatory photochemical model, CAMx, v. 6.1, suggests that model predictions are more sensitive to emissions changes than the observations would support.     

High Volume Sampling:Evaluation of an Inverted Sampler for Ambient TSP Measurements

Recent advances in the development of receptor-oriented source apportionment techniques (models) have provided a new approach to evaluating the performance of particulate dispersion models. Rather than limiting performance evaluations to comparisons of particulate mass, receptor model estimates of source impacts can be used to open new opportunities for in-depth analysis of dispersion model performance. Recent experiences in the joint application of receptor and dispersion models have proven valuable in developing increased confidence in source impact projections used for control strategy development. Airshed studies that have followed this approach have identified major errors in emission inventory data bases and provided technical support for modeling assumptions.

This paper focuses on the joint application of dispersion and receptor models to particulate source impact analysis and dispersion model performance and evaluation. The limitations and advantages of each form of modeling are reviewed and case studies are examined. The paper is offered to provide several new perspectives into the model evaluation process in the hope that they may prove useful to those that manage our nation’s air resources.     

Effects of natural organic matter on the microporous sorption sites of black carbon in a Yangtze River sediment

Black carbon (BC), characterized by high microporosity and high specific surface area (SSA), has been demonstrated to have substantial contributions to the sorption of hydrophobic organic chemicals in soils and sediments. Other naturally occurring organic matters provide soft and penetrable sorption domains while may cling to BC and affect its original surface properties. In this work, we studied the sorption sites of a Yangtze River sediment sample with organic carbon (OC) content of 3.3 % and the preheated sediment (combusted at 375 °C) with reduced OC content (defined as BC) of 0.4 % by gas and pyrene sorption. The SSA and microporosity of the pristine and preheated sediments were characterized by N₂ and CO₂ adsorption. The results suggest that the adsorption of N₂ was hindered by amorphous organic carbon (AOC) in the pristine sediment but CO₂ was not. Instead, the uptake of CO₂ was higher in the presence of AOC, likely due to the partition of CO₂ molecules into the organic matter. The pyrene adsorptions to BC in pristine and preheated sediments show a similar adsorption capacity at high concentration, suggesting that AOC of ca. 2.9 % in the pristine sediment does not reduce the accessibility to the sorption sites on BC for pyrene.     

Dynamic extreme values modeling and monitoring by means of sea shores water quality biomarkers and valvometry

Water quality can be evaluated using biomarkers such as tissular enzymatic activities of endemic species. Measurement of molluscs bivalves activity at high frequency (e.g., valvometry) during a long time period is another way to record the animal behavior and to evaluate perturbations of the water quality in real time. As the pollution affects the activity of oysters, we consider the valves opening and closing velocities to monitor the water quality assessment. We propose to model the huge volume of velocity data collected in the framework of valvometry using a new nonparametric extreme values statistical model. The objective is to estimate the tail probabilities and the extreme quantiles of the distribution of valve closing velocity. The tail of the distribution function of valve closing velocity is modeled by a Pareto distribution with parameter ??_t,τ, beyond a threshold τ according to the time t of the experiment. Our modeling approach reveals the dependence between the specific activity of two enzymatic biomarkers (Glutathione-S-transferase and acetylcholinesterase) and the continuous recording of oyster valve velocity, proving the suitability of this tool for water quality assessment. Thus, valvometry allows in real-time in situ analysis of the bivalves behavior and appears as an effective early warning tool in ecological risk assessment and marine environment monitoring.     

Distribution and spatial trends of PAHs and PCBs in soils in the Seine River basin, France

Persistent organic pollutants (PAHs and PCBs) in soil samples from seven sites across the Seine basin were analysed. Samples were taken from industrialized, urban, suburban and remote sites. Results showed spatial differences, in terms of concentrations and congener profiles. PAH (Sigma14 PAHs) and PCB (Sigma 7 PCBs) concentrations ranged from 450 to 5650 microg kg(-1) and 0.09 to 150 microg kg(-1), respectively. A clear gradient from industrial to remote sites was highlighted, with a ratio of up to one order of magnitude for PAHs and two orders of magnitude for PCBs. Fluoranthene and pyrene were predominant, while the carcinogenic PAHs represented 15-46% of the total PAH content. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, soil samples profiles were compared and the influence of site location and potential sources were identified: automobile traffic, domestic heating, and industrial emissions were the prevalent PAHs sources in the Seine basin. PCB profiles suggested different transport patterns among congeners. For remote sites, the congener fingerprint showed a relatively higher proportion of the most volatile congeners, which were attributed to increased atmospheric residence times. Thus, PAH and PCB distributions in soils provided information on sources and evidence for short-range transport, and profiles of compounds reflected differences between regional and local emissions. This study demonstrates that soil sampling can be used to investigate spatial differences in atmospheric inputs of persistent organic pollutants based on differences in the mixtures of compounds, reflecting differences in regional and local atmospheric emissions.     

Prenatal diagnosis of carnitine palmitoyltransferase 2 deficiency in chorionic villi: a novel approach

Carnitine palmitoyltransferase 2 (CPT2) deficiency, the most common autosomal recessive inherited disease of the mitochondrial long-chain fatty acid (LCFA) β-oxidation, may result in three distinct clinical phenotypes, namely, a mild adult muscular form, a severe infantile hepatocardiomuscular disease, and a neonatal form, which includes dysmorphic features in addition to hepatocardiomuscular symptoms. Both the latter forms are life-threatening diseases, and prenatal diagnosis (PND) can be offered to couples at a one-fourth risk of having an affected child. PND of CPT2 deficiency hitherto relied mostly on mutation detection from fresh chorionic villi (10 weeks' gestation), since CPT2 activity could be assayed on cultured amniocytes only (16–17 weeks' gestation). We devised a CPT2 activity assay from 10 mg of chorionic villi sampling (CVS). Combining this enzymatic assay to haplotype study using polymorphic markers linked to the CPT2 gene, we were able to carry out within 2 days, CPT2 deficiency PND, in two unrelated families, using a CVS performed at the 11th week of gestation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relationship between metal concentrations and phenotypes in the Baltic clam Macoma balthica (L.) from the Gulf of Gdansk, southern Baltic

Soft tissue accumulated concentrations of nine metals (V, As, Se, Ag, Cd, Pb, Mn, Cu and Zn) were studied in two main phenotypes (1) according to external shell colour (white and pink), and (2) according to shell shape (shell with a rounded posterior end--"regular" and with an elongate posterior end and a notable flexure--"irregular") of the Baltic clam Macoma balthica from southern Baltic Sea off Poland. No differences in metal concentrations were observed between colour-based phenotypes. By contrast, "irregular" clams exhibited generally higher concentrations of all elements in their tissues than "regular" bivalves. This finding provides the first reference on a potential linkage of shell deformation with tissue metal concentrations within one entire population of clams living in the same habitat. Different ability of metal handling in the shape-based phenotypes is presumably related to different physiological capacity of the bivalves induced by the selection effect of specific environmental conditions. It is suggested that unfavourable conditions in deep waters of the Gulf of Gdansk (e.g. hypoxia/anoxia, hydrogen sulphide, elevated bioavailability of metals) induces, in a certain part of the population, morphological deformation of shell (thereby leading to irregular shape) and in parallel physiological adaptations which result in greater sensitivity to trace metals of "irregular" clams. This hypothesis however, requires further investigation with special focus on genetic divergences between phenotypes because till now we cannot exclude the co-occurrence of two types (semi-species) of clams in the Gulf: an Atlantic type and a Baltic type. Genetic analysis with a use of DALP technique revealed strong intrapopulational polymorphism but no fingerprints or intraspecific polymorphism characterising any of the phenotypes considered (both colour- and shape-based). Since eight polymorphic loci were clearly identified further studies of population genetic structure hold optimistic promise.     

Trace metal and stable isotope measurements (delta13C and delta15N) in the harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena relicta from the Black Sea

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes (delta13C and delta15N) and trace metals (Cd, Zn, Cu, Fe, Se, and Hg) were analysed in the tissues of 46 harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena relicta) caught in fishing nets along the Ukrainian coasts between 1997 and 1998. Mean delta13C values differed significantly between male and female harbour porpoises suggesting a trophic segregation between sexes with a more coastal distribution for females at least during their gestation and nursing periods. Hepatic Hg was correlated to delta13C measurements, reflecting a different exposure linked to coastal vs offshore feeding habitats. A geographical comparison with existing data from other regions showed general low levels of Hg, Cd, Cu and Zn in the tissues of harbour porpoises from the Black Sea compared to other Atlantic and North Sea areas.