Economic costs of achieving current conservation goals in the future as climate changes

Conservation of biologically diverse regions has thus far been accomplished largely through the establishment and maintenance of protected areas. Climate change is expected to shift climate space of many species outside existing reserve boundaries. We used climate-envelope models to examine shifts in climate space of 11 species that are representative of the Mount Hamilton Project area (MHPA) (California, U.S.A.), which includes areas within Alameda, Santa Clara, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and San Benito counties and is in the state's Central Coast ecoregion. We used Marxan site-selection software to determine the minimum area required as climate changes to achieve a baseline conservation goal equal to 80% of existing climate space for all species in the MHPA through 2050 and 2100. Additionally, we assessed the costs associated with use of existing conservation strategies (land acquisition and management actions such as species translocation, monitoring, and captive breeding) necessary to meet current species-conservation goals as climate changes. Meeting conservation goals as climate changes through 2050 required an additional 256,000 ha (332%) of protected area, primarily to the south and west of the MHPA. Through 2050 the total cost of land acquisition and management was estimated at US$1.67-1.79 billion, or 139-149% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. To maintain 80% of climate space through 2100 required nearly 380,000 additional hectares that would cost $2.46-2.62 billion, or 209-219% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. Furthermore, maintaining 80% of existing climate space within California for 27% of the focal species was not possible by 2100 because climate space for these species did not exist in the state. The high costs of conserving species as the climate changes-that we found in an assessment of one conservation project-highlights the need for tools that will aid in iterative goal setting given the uncertainty of the effects of climate change and adaptive management that includes new conservation strategies and consideration of the long-term economic costs of conservation.     

Degradation and metabolite formation of 17beta-estradiol-3-sulphate in New Zealand pasture soils

Estrogens-sulphates such as 17beta-estradiol-3-sulphate and estrone-3-sulphate are excreted by livestock in the urine. These conjugates are precursors to the free counterparts 17beta-estradiol and estrone, which are endocrine disrupting chemicals. In this study microcosm laboratory experiments were conducted in three pasture soils from New Zealand to study the aerobic degradation and metabolite formation kinetics of 17beta-estradiol-3-sulphate at three different incubation temperatures. The degradation of 17beta-estradiol-3-sulphate followed a first-order kinetic and the temperature dependence of the rate constants was sufficiently described by the Arrhenius equation. Degradation was different between the three investigated soils and the rate constants across the soils were significantly correlated to the arylsulphatase activity at 7.5 and 15 degrees C. Estrone-3-sulphate and 17beta-estradiol were identified as primary metabolites and estrone as a secondary metabolite. Results suggest arylsulphatase activity originating from soil microbial biomass is the main driver for the degradation of 17beta-estradiol-3-sulphate.     

Economic,equitable, and affordable adaptations to protect coastal settlements against storm surge inundation

The distribution of risk of coastal inundation, and the potential benefits of adapting to protect against inundation, vary greatly both within and between coastal communities. This diversity is a result of physical factors, such as the risk of storm surge, sea level rise projections, and the topography of the landscape, as well as socio-economic factors, such as the level of development, and the capacity within the community to adapt. Despite this strong local variation, various communities share common characteristics that constrain or enable different adaptation options in different situations. Understanding these drivers is likely to be important in engaging coastal communities in the discussion around adaptation and may provide new insights into which adaptation options are suitable for each of our at-risk coastal communities. We performed a property-level analysis of 6 suburb-sized case studies distributed along the coast of Queensland, Australia. We assessed the potential economic costs of inundation events now and in the future under sea level rise projections, and the potential avoided costs following adaptation to protect against inundation. We went beyond this to estimate the distribution of risk in each community and compared the potential costs of adaptation with the capacity of the community to pay for their implementation. We used these insights to propose a typology of coastal communities based on their exposure to total inundation risk, the distribution of that risk within the community, and their capacity to adapt.     

Alternative Non-market Value-Elicitation Methods: Are the Underlying Preferences the Same?

We advocate a more formal structural approach for comparing WTP for non-market or pre-test-market goods conveyed by fundamentally different preference elicitation mechanisms. Seven independent samples of respondents were asked to value the identical good. Elicitation methods include one actual purchase and six widely used hypothetical choice formats. Using a common underlying indirect utility function (and stochastic structure) allows data for different elicitation methods to be used independently, compared pair-wise (as in much of the earlier literature) or pooled across all samples in one unified model with heteroscedasticity across elicitation methods. Our differences in estimated WTP for the individual models are typical of earlier findings. However, pooled-data models that allow for heteroscedasticity reveal that while there are substantial differences in the amount of noise in the different samples, a common underlying systematic component of the preference structure cannot be rejected for at least four (and possibly five) of these seven elicitation methods.     

Seasonal variation in male-female competition,cooperation and selfish hoarding in a monogamous songbird

Both cooperation and conflict between the sexes are commonplace in monogamous mating systems. However, little is known about how cooperation and competition varies seasonally in monogamous species that maintain permanent territories. We presented territorial pairs of male and female New Zealand robins (Petroica australis) with a large supply of insect prey at monthly intervals for 2 years. Behavioural observations after food presentation were then made to quantify seasonal and sexual differences in aggressive interactions over prey, prey acquisition rates, mate provisioning, offspring provisioning, selfish food hoarding and cache retrieval. Data were used to evaluate sex-specific behavioural strategies of mediating competition for food. Results showed that males aggressively excluded females from experimental food sources year-round. Females only accessed food sources when males left them unattended. Consequently, females acquired fewer prey than males. After controlling for differences in prey acquisition, both sexes consumed similar amounts of prey in the non-breeding season. Even though males aggressively excluded females from accessing food sources directly, males fed large amounts of prey to females during the breeding season. Both sexes provisioned young at similar rates. Males cached less prey than females in the breeding season but more prey than females in the non-breeding season. Females showed similar caching intensities year-round. Although males tried to defend their hoards, females frequently retrieved male-made caches. Overall, results showed that although New Zealand robins cooperate to raise offspring during the breeding season, conflict between the sexes occurs year-round. Males and females display different behavioural strategies to gain access to experimental food sources, which appear to lessen male–female competition for food and evenly distribute food resources between the sexes.     

Global Warming and the Species Richness of Bats in Texas

General circulation models provide predictions for global climate under scenarios of increased atmospheric CO₂. Climate change is expected to lead directly to changes in distributions of vegetation associations. Distribution of animals will also change to the extent that animals rely on vegetation for food or shelter. Bat species in Texas appear to be restricted, in part, by the availability of roosts. We used geographic information systems and the Holdridge vegetation-climate association scheme to model the effect of climate change on bat distributions and species richness in Texas. Habitat characteristics for each species were identified from the literature and included vegetation, topography, and availability of caves. We assumed caves and topography to be fixed relative to climate. Vegetation changes were predicted from the Holdridge vegetation-climate association scheme. The redistribution of bats following climate change was predicted based on the new locations of suitable habitat characteristics. Under conditions of global warming tropical forests were predicted to expand into Texas; tree-roosting bats were sensitive to this change in vegetation. Cavity-roosting bats were less affected by changes in vegetation, but, where response was predicted, ranges decline.     

Radon-222 exhalation from open ground on and around a uranium mine in the wet-dry tropics

Radon-222 exhalation from the ground surface depends upon a number of variables such as the 226Ra activity concentration and its distribution in soil grains; soil grain size; soil porosity, temperature and moisture; atmospheric pressure, rainfall and temperature. In this study, 222Rn exhalation flux density measurements within and around the Ranger uranium mine in northern Australia were performed to investigate the effect of these variables within a tropical region. Measurements were taken at the waste rock dumps, ore stockpiles, mine pits, and at sites where effluent water with elevated 226Ra concentration has been spray irrigated over land, as well as at sites outside the mine. The sites selected represented a variety of geomorphic regions ranging from uranium-bearing rocks to ambient soils. Generally, wet season rains reduced 222Rn exhalation but at a few sites the onset of rains caused a step rise in exhalation flux densities. The results show that parameters such as 226Ra activity concentration, soil grain size and soil porosity have a marked effect on 222Rn flux densities. For similar geomorphic sites, 226Ra activity concentration is a dominant factor, but soil grain size and porosity also influence 222Rn exhalation. Surfaces with vegetation showed higher exhalation flux densities than their barren counterparts, perhaps because the associated root structure increases soil porosity and moisture retention. Repeated measurements over one year at eight sites enabled an analysis of precipitation and soil moisture effects on 222Rn exhalation. Soil moisture depth profiles varied both between seasons and at different times during the wet season, indicating that factors such as duration, intensity and time between precipitation events can influence 222Rn flux densities considerably.     

Resistance of pulmonate snail populations to repeated treatments of copper sulfate

Two species of pulmonate snails,Lymnaea cat-ascopium andPhysa integra, were collected from Douglas and Houghton Lakes. Snail populations from the former lake (pristine) had never been exposed to copper sulfate, whereas those from the latter one (treated) had been subjected to the molluscicide for more than 40 years. Molluscs from the treated lake were more resistant to the copper at concentrations of 0.5 and 1.0 ppm than those from the pristine lake. Furthermore, larger lymnaeids had a higher survival rate than smaller ones.     

Modes of governing Canadian waste management: a case study of Metro Vancouver’s energy-from-waste controversy

Managing municipal solid waste is a pressing environmental and political concern for Canadian municipalities who bear the primary responsibility for waste management (WM). In 2015, Metro Vancouver’s (MV’s) plans to expand their capacity to expand their WM capacity with energy-from-waste technology was abandoned, despite shrinking landfill space and persistent public opposition to new landfills. Using Bulkeley et al.’s [(2005). Governing municipal waste: towards a new analytical framework. Journal of Environmental Policy and Planning, 7(1), 1–23. doi:10.1080/15239080500251700] ‘modes of governing framework’, we analyse MV’s failed attempt to expand their energy-from-waste capacity to better understand the challenges associated with governing WM in Canada. We argue that a history of downloading responsibility for WM to municipalities, regional districts, and industry has fragmented WM governance, posing a challenge for developing new waste infrastructure. We find that this localization of responsibility is incompatible with contemporary WM challenges. The scalar mismatch between waste’s material impacts and the scale at which waste is managed has resulted in co-dependence and conflict between putatively independent municipalities, regional districts, and private companies. This inhibits higher-level WM coordination while the autonomy of individual municipalities is simultaneously undermined.