RCRA leapfrog: How statistics shape and in turn are shaped by regulatory mandates

During the past ten years, a statistical program applicable to RCRA groundwater monitoring data has been developed with input from regulators, geologists, regulated individuals, and a small group of professional statisticians. At first driven by the RCRA regulations, the evolution of the statistical program now often influences changes in regulatory requirements, which in turn affect opinions on the best statistical approach for addressing the requirements. This article describes that evolution and the issues that have emerged over the years. In the following article, Dr. Robert Gibbons, another of the professional statisticians involved in the debate, responds to comments made in this article.     

Risk analysis of the 1970 san antonio diphtheria epidemic*

Prediction of disease patterns for communicable diseases with low prevalence rates is difficult because of the random variations inherent in the data Smoothing of prevalence or incidence data prior to the analysis may facilitate these predictions. All of the analyses are based on census tract characterisiics. The disadvantages of this type of data are that the boundaries are arbitraty and lead to some heterogenous tracts. Also, the analyses depend totally on aggregate rather than individual data. The advantage of working with this type of data is its availability for all metropolitan areas. The San Antonio diphtheria epidemic has been previously referred to as an ethnic epidemic. This paper shows that it is even more an epidemic of lower socioeconomic groups. In this region of the country, socioeconomic characteristics are almost indistinguishable.     

Book reviews

“Water Planning and the Regions”

Edited by P. J. Purdy, R. S. A.

Discussion Paper No. 9, 1977, £1.50.

Tenant participation in council housing management; Housing Development.

Directorate Occasional Paper 2/77, DoE London, 1977.

Getting tenants involved: a handbook on systems of tenant participation in housing management; DoE London, 1977.

La politica dei servizi tra razionalizzazione e rinnovamento

Alberto L'Abate (1978)

Marsilio Editori, Padova, pp. 316

Handbook for Environmental Planning: the social consequences of environmental change.

J. McEnvoy & T. Dietz (1977)

New York, J. Wiley, pp. 323. Price £15.50

Planning and Urbanism in China

Progress in Planning Vol. 8, Part 2, Fo. 1 N. Jeffrey and M. Caldwell, pp. 97–182, 1977

Pergamen, £4.00

The European Community's Regional Fund

Ross B. Talbot

Progress in Planning, Vol. 8, Part 3, pp. 183–281

Pergamon Press, 1977

Providing the Posh Words

W. Hampton, DoE

1978. £1.50. 60pp.

Four Titles on Conservation

A Critical Bibliography of Building Conservation. John F. Smith. Mansell, London 1978. 207 pages including index. Hard back, £12.90.

Conservation and Planning. Alan Doby. Hutchinson — The Built Environment. 1978. 173 pages. Some illustrations. Paper back, £3.25.

A Study in Conservation. Winston Barnett and Cyril Winskell. Oriel Press, 1977. 45 pages, in English, French and German. Illustrated. Paper back, £3.75.

Interpreting the Conserved Environment. Working Paper No. 29. Brian Goodey. Oxford Polytechnic Department of Town and Country Planning, 1977. 65 pages. Paper back, not priced.

“Belgium”, R. Riley, £3.25, 205 pp.

“The Netherlands”, D. Pinder, £3.25, 194 pp.

“The USSR”, J. C. Dewdney, £3.25, 262 pp.

Development Strategy of Bangladesh

Nurul Islam

Oxford, Pergamon Press, 1978, 109 pp.     

Biochemical and energetic composition of bathyal echinoids and an asteroid,holothuroid and crinoid from the Bahamas

The biochemical and energetic composition of body components of ten species of bathyal echinoids, and an asteroid, a holothuroid and a stalked crinoid were determined from individuals sampled from a variety of deep-water sites near the Bahamas (north Caribbean Sea) in October 1988. When compared with other studies of echinoderms, no geographic- or depth-related differences in biochemical or energetic composition were found. Body-wall tissues were composed primarily of skeletal material (mineral ash), but were comparatively high in organic material in the echinothuriid echinoids, and the asteroid and holothuroid. Gut tissues and pyloric cecae had high levels of lipid and protein, indicating their potential role in nutrient storage. Body-wall tissues were generally low in energy, but were highest in the echinoidsAraeosoma belli (7.7 kJ g^–1 dry wt) andSperosoma antillense (8.0 kJ g^–1 dry wt), the asteroidOphidiaster alexandri (8.9 kJ g^–1 dry wt), and the holothuroidEostichopus regalis (13.1 kJ g^–1 dry wt). Energy levels of gut and pyloric cecal tissues were two to three times higher than those of body-wall tissues. Total somatic tissue energy values varied greatly among species, ranging from 1.5 kJ in the echinoidAspidodiadema jacobyi to 142.1 kJ inE. regalis. As the bathyal echinoderms examined in this study occur in great abundance, they represent a significant reservoir of organic and inorganic materials and energy in deep-water benthic systems.     

Some experiences in hazard identification and risk shortlisting

‘Rapid ranking’ has been used for many years as a method of determining the priority which should be given to formal investigation of the wide range of hazards and risks present on major process industry sites. Such methods tend to evolve to meet the needs of specific applications. Some historical and recent applications are outlined, and the nature of the developments which they led to are discussed. Particular topics discussed include: development of the method such that it is usable by operating managers rather than specialists; use to raise risk consciousness; adaptation for use as an aid to hazard identification; use to define both which risks should be studied and which risks, even if low, should be incorporated in routine monitoring and periodic auditing programmes; use as a basis for comparison of the relative risks presented by a variety of different industrial installations; use for a range of different types of risk; and extension beyond ranking to include ‘shortlisting’ i.e. deciding which risks to include in a study programme and which to leave out. Philosophical difficulties with the approach are discussed, including the danger of omitting from detailed study a risk which is erroneously shown as low, and the uncertainty of the absolute level of the ranked risks. Approaches to minimizing these problems are discussed.     

Microbial indicators of heavy metal contamination in urban and rural soils

Urban soils and especially their microbiology have been a neglected area of study. In this paper, we report on microbial properties of urban soils compared to rural soils of similar lithogenic origin in the vicinity of Aberdeen city. Significant differences in basal respiration rates, microbial biomass and ecophysiological parameters were found in urban soils compared to rural soils. Analysis of community level physiological profiles (CLPP) of micro-organisms showed they consumed C sources faster in urban soils to maintain the same level activity as those in rural soils. Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni were the principal elements that had accumulated in urban soils compared with their rural counterparts with Pb being the most significant metal to distinguish urban soils from rural soils. Sequential extraction showed the final residue after extraction was normally the highest proportion except for Pb, for which the hydroxylamine-hydrochloride extractable Pb was the largest part. Acetic acid extractable fraction of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn were higher in urban soils and aqua regia extractable fraction were lower suggesting an elevated availability of heavy metals in urban soils. Correlation analyses between different microbial indicators (basal respiration, biomass-C, and sole C source tests) and heavy metal fractions indicated that basal respiration was negatively correlated with soil Cd, Cu, Ni and Zn inputs while soil microbial biomass was only significantly correlated with Pb. However, both exchangeable and iron- and manganese-bound Ni fractions were mostly responsible for shift of the soil microbial community level physiological profiles (sole C source tests). These data suggest soil microbial indicators can be useful indicators of pollutant heavy metal stress on the health of urban soils.     

Development of injury criteria for pelvic fracture in frontal crashes

OBJECTIVE: This article assesses the position-dependent injury tolerance of the hip in the frontal direction based on testing of eight postmortem human subjects. METHODS: For each subject, the left and right hemipelvis complex was axially loaded using a previously developed test configuration. Six positions were defined from a seated femur neutral condition, combining flexed, neutral, and extended femur positions with abducted, neutral, and adducted positions. RESULTS: Axial injury tolerances based on peak force were found to be 6,850 +/- 840 N in the extended, neutral position and 4,080 +/- 830 N in the flexed, neutral position. From the flexed neutral orientation, the peak axial force increased 18% for 20 degrees abduction and decreased 6% for 20 degrees adduction. From the extended, neutral orientation, the peak axial force decreased 4% for 20 degrees abduction and decreased 3% for 20 degrees adduction. However, as there is evidence that increases in loading may occur after the initiation of fracture, the magnitude of the peak force is likely related to the extent of injury, not to the initial tolerance. Using the axial femur force at the initiation of fracture (assessed with acoustic crack sensors) as a potentially more relevant indicator of injury may lower the existing injury criteria. This fracture initiation force varied by position from 3,010 +/- 560 N in the flexed, neutral position to 5,470 N in the extended, abducted position. Further, there was a large position-dependent variation in the ratio of fracture initiation force to the peak axial force. The initiation of fracture was 83% of the peak axial force in the extended, abducted position, but the ratio was 34% in the extended, adducted position. CONCLUSIONS: This may have significant implications for the development of pelvic injury criteria by automobile designers attempting to mitigate pelvis injuries.     

A blended hazard identification methodology to support process diagnosis

A novel hazard identification methodology applied to process systems is presented in this paper. This blended hazard identification (BLHAZID) methodology blends two different types of HAZID methods: the function-driven and component-driven approach. The BLHAZID method is based on a conceptual framework called the Functional Systems Framework, which describes structure–function–goal relationships in process systems.The goals of the BLHAZID methodology are to generate outcomes that contain a high coverage of hazards, describe detailed failure causality in process systems and express this knowledge in a structured form for effective reused in subsequent applications, such as fault diagnosis, operator training, design reviews, fault and event tree construction and hazard updates to satisfy major hazard facility requirements.Both the BLHAZID methodology and the Functional Systems Framework were developed with involvement and advice from two major industrial partners. An industrial case study of a benzene saturation unit is presented to illustrate how the BLHAZID methodology operates in practice.     

Using a driving simulator to identify older drivers at inflated risk of motor vehicle crashes

PROBLEM: To develop appropriate assessment criteria to measure the performance of older drivers using an interactive PC-based driving simulator, and to determine which measures were associated with the occurrence of motor-vehicle crash. METHOD: One hundred and twenty-nine older drivers residing in a metropolitan city volunteered to participate in this retrospective cohort study. Using the driving simulator, appropriate driving tasks were devised to test the older drivers, whose performances were assessed by 10 reliable assessment criteria. Logistic regression analysis was then undertaken to determine those criteria that influence the self-reported crash outcome. RESULTS: As expected, driving skill of older drivers was found to decline with age. Over 60% of the sample participants reported having at least one motor-vehicle crash during the past year. Adjusting for age in a logistic regression analysis, the cognitive abilities associated with the crash occurrence were working memory, decision making under pressure of time, and confidence in driving at high speed. SUMMARY: The findings of this retrospective study indicated those individuals at inflated risk of vehicle crashes could be identified using the PC-based interactive driving simulator. Prospective studies need to be undertaken to determine whether the driving simulator can predict future crash events. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This study demonstrated an economical driving simulator approach to screen out problematic or unsafe older drivers before a more detailed but expensive road test is considered.     

U.S. consumer crash test results and injury risk in police-reported crashes

Consumer crash test programs provide comparative information on the crashworthiness of new vehicles which, in turn, should predict the performance of the same vehicles in real-world crashes. However, the detail and quality of available information from tests and real-world crashes differ widely, so identifying meaningful relationships between crash test results and real-world crashworthiness can be difficult. Despite these data limitations, studies in the late 1980s and mid-1990s reported positive correlations between dummy injury measures from the U.S. New Car Assessment Program (USNCAP) and real-world fatality rates. More recent analyses of results from Australian crash tests and real-world crashes also have found positive correlations. This article considers relationships between recent U.S. frontal crash test results from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) and USNCAP, and real-world crash injury risk estimates computed from police-reported crash data from three U.S. states. The frontal crash test results include dummy injury measures by body region from both IIHS offset tests and USNCAP full-width barrier tests plus measures of structural performance from the IIHS offset tests. Individually, results from the full-width and offset tests were not significantly correlated with the real-world injury risk estimates. Stronger relationships were found when a combination of overall ratings from the full-frontal and offset tests was used. However, the current results find only weak correlations between both full-front and offset frontal crash test performance and the real-world injury risk estimates. These weak relationships likely reflect the lack of detail and fundamental difference in injury information in police crash reports compared to that used in deriving crashworthiness ratings from the crash tests.