Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species, arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird Area (IBA) network is a series of sites designed to conserve avian diversity in the face of current threats from factors such as habitat loss and fragmentation. However, in common with other networks, the IBA network is based on the assumption that the climate will remain unchanged in the future. In this article, we provide a method to simulate the occurrence of species of conservation concern in protected areas, which could be used as a first-step approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change upon such species in protected areas. We use species-climate response surface models to relate the occurrence of 12 biome-restricted African species to climate data at a coarse (quarter degree-degree latitude-longitude) resolution and then intersect the grid model output with IBA outlines to simulate the occurrence of the species in South African IBAs. Our results demonstrate that this relatively simple technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios to highlight vulnerable species in IBAs in the future and allow practical recommendations to be made to enhance the IBA network and minimize the predicted impacts of climate change.     

Variation in sensitivity to cadmium among genetically characterized laboratory strains of the midge Chironomus riparius

Estimating the extent of intraspecific variation in sensitivity to contaminant exposure is important in order to explain variation in the outcome of toxicity tests and to predict the effects of chemical stress on natural populations of plants and animals. However, only few studies provide evident data concerning intraspecific variation in life-history traits caused by a differential response to chemical stress. In this study, we compared the life-history response of six laboratory strains of the midge Chironomus riparius to cadmium exposure in a full life-cycle assay. In addition, the level of genetic variation in all strains was measured at five variable microsatellite loci. Several significant differences in life-history traits among the strains were observed in controls and cadmium treatments. The extent of variation among strains was largest at moderate cadmium concentration (0.42 mg Cd/kg dw). At increased Cd concentrations all strains showed similar levels of high mortality and reduced reproductive success. All strains exhibited considerable levels of genetic impoverishment compared to field populations. Strains with low genetic variation showed reduced fitness in the controls and were more susceptible to Cd exposure. For instance, no reproductive success in the lowest Cd treatment was observed for the strain with the lowest level of genetic diversity. In contrast, this Cd concentration had no negative effects on life-history traits of more variable strains. These results confirm recent findings, that inbreeding and reduced genetic variation influence the reaction of populations towards environmental stress. In addition, we show that the level of genetic variation and inbreeding directly influences the outcome of toxicity tests and contributes to the lack of reproducibility of test results among laboratories.     

A new method for analysing socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability

This paper presents a method for the analysis of socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability of people being at risk of losing their livelihoods as a consequence of global environmental change. This method fills a gap in methodologies for vulnerability analysis by providing generalizations of the factors that shape vulnerability in specific socio-ecological systems and showing their spatial occurrence. The proposed method consists of four steps that include both quantitative and qualitative analyses. To start, the socio-ecological system exposed to global environmental changes that will be studied needs to be determined. This could, for example, be farmers in drylands, urban populations in coastal areas and forest-dependent people in the tropics. Next, the core dimensions that shape vulnerability in the socio-ecological system of interest need to be defined. Subsequently, a set of spatially explicit indicators that reflect these core dimensions is selected. Cluster analysis is used for grouping the indicator data. The clusters found, referred to as vulnerability profiles, describe different typical groupings of conditions and processes that create vulnerability in the socio-ecological system under study, and their spatial distribution is provided. Interpretation and verification of these profiles is the last step in the analysis. We illustrate the application of this method by analysing the patterns of vulnerability of (smallholder) farmers in drylands. We identify eight distinct vulnerability profiles in drylands that together provide a global overview of different processes taking place and sub-national detail of their distribution. By overlaying the spatial distribution of these profiles with specific outcome indicators such as conflict occurrence or migration, the method can also be used to understand these phenomena better. Analysis of vulnerability profiles will in a next step be used as a basis for identifying responses to reduce vulnerability, for example, to facilitate the transfer of best practices to reduce vulnerability between different places.     

How Socio-Economic Conditions Influence Forest Policy Development in Central and South-East Europe

In this article, several findings on socio-economic conditions derived from national reports and a web-based questionnaire are discussed and related to the changing role of forestry and the future forest policy development. A number of Central and South-eastern European countries taking part in a SEE-ERA-NET project ReForMan project (www.reforman.de) participated in data acquisition: Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Germany, Serbia and Slovenia. The aim of the research was to illustrate the present structure of forestry sector, as well as investigate newly emerging topics in forestry of Central and South-eastern Europe. The results indicated certain patterns in attitudes and perceptions among stakeholders that can be related to socio-economic conditions defined for each country. Clear differences between member and non-member countries exist only in level of implementation of EU legislation. Results showed consensus on main threats to the forests among all countries, but also some country specifics in perceptions of factors influencing forestry, their importance and professional competencies. These results could be additionally explained by influence of historical conditions which shaped development of forest sector in SEE region especially in its organizational dimension as well as in perceived role of forestry expressed through recognition of main forest functions. The influence of European forest policy processes in the region is evident through adaptation of EU legislation and perceived implications of international processes on national levels. Based on this observation, two possible options for future development of the forestry sector can be foreseen: (i) focusing on the productive function of forests and fostering its' sustainable use; or (ii) putting an emphasis on environmental and social issues. In both cases supporting public participation in decision-making processes is recommendable. Another conclusion based on perceived medium to low professional competencies to cope with new topics, that there is lack of confidence and need for professional support in decisionmaking processes.     

Endocrine disrupting chemicals accumulate in earthworms exposed to sewage effluent

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) can alter endocrine function in exposed animals. Such critical effects, combined with the ubiquity of EDCs in sewage effluent and potentially in tapwater, have led to concerns that they could be major physiological disruptors for wildlife and more controversially for humans. Although sewage effluent is known to be a rich source of EDCs, there is as yet no evidence for EDC uptake by invertebrates that live within the sewage treatment system. Here, we describe the use of an extraction method and GC-MS for the first time to determine levels of EDCs (e.g., dibutylphthalate, dioctylphthalate, bisphenol-A and 17beta-estradiol) in tissue samples from earthworms (Eisenia fetida) living in sewage percolating filter beds and garden soil. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first such use of these techniques to determine EDCs in tissue samples in any organism. We found significantly higher concentrations of these chemicals in the animals from sewage percolating filter beds. Our data suggest that earthworms can be used as bioindicators for EDCs in these substrates and that the animals accumulate these compounds to levels well above those reported for waste water. The potential transfer into the terrestrial food chain and effects on wildlife are discussed.     

Long-term simulation of effects of energy crop cultivation on nitrogen leaching and surface water quality in Saxony/Germany

The production of energy crops in Germany is a growing agronomic sector and is expected to occupy a substantial share of farmland in the near future. At the same time, there are concerns that energy crops might cause increased nitrogen pollution of soil water, surface water and groundwater. Therefore, the Federal State of Saxony, Germany, funded a study on potential effects of an intensified cultivation of energy crops. In frame of this study, we used the Web GIS-based model STOFFBILANZ to simulate N leaching from the rooting zone and N loads of surface water for a reference scenario and an energy crop scenario. For the reference scenario, we used data representing the crop cultivation for the year 2005 at municipality level. We found that the total loads for N leaching from the rooting zone of cropland are highest for the loess region (8,067 t year^?1), followed by mountainous region (6,797 t year^?1) and lowland (5,443 t year^?1). However, highest N fluxes in the leachate from rooting zones have been simulated for lowland (40.6 kg ha^?1 year^?1) and mountainous region (37.1 kg ha^?1 year^?1), while nitrate concentrations of leachate were highest for the lowland (101.8 mg l^?1). In terms of diffuse N input into surface water, the mountainous region is the most important source area (total N load 6,380 t year^?1, flux 34.6 kg ha^?1 year^?1). Retention by in-stream processes accounts for 15 % (3,784 t year^?1) of the total N load leaving the study area (25,136 t year^?1). In the 2020 energy crop scenario, shares of rape and silage maize (id., ensiled corn) were limited for each municipality to a maximum of 25 and 33 %, respectively. The conversion of grasslands to crop farming was not allowed. Under these conditions, we found slight to substantial reductions of nitrogen loads for leachate from the rooting zone and for surface waters. The simulated reduction depends strongly on local conditions. Only small reductions (ca. 4–8 %) were found for the lowlands and mountainous regions of Saxony, while reductions for the loess region were substantial (ca. 22 %). A major outcome of our study is that the cultivation of energy crops might reduce N loss if certain preconditions are assumed, for example, without conversion of grasslands to crop farming. However, effects might vary widely depending on local conditions.     

Recreation conflict potential and management implications in the northern/central Black Forest Nature Park

This study explores conflict in recreational use of the Black Forest Nature Park (BFNP) by six different nature sports groups as a function of infrastructure, forest management and other users. A multi-step, methodological triangulation conflict model from US recreation management was applied and tested in the Park. Results from two groups, hikers and mountain bikers, are analysed in depth. The main conflict potentials were due to infrastructure and value conflicts. These were influenced by various visitor characteristics such as resource attachment, experiences, activity-style, expectations and motives. Results of quantitative data analysis were further interpreted by interviews with agency and group leaders. This methodological combination reveals a robust understanding of recreation conflict and management in the BFNP.     

The virtue and vice of workplace conflict: food for (pessimistic) thought

Many authors, myself included, have suggested that workplace conflict may be beneficial to the organization. I argue that the support for this conclusion is rather weak. A selective and necessarily limited review of the literature shows that: (1) the positive functions of conflict are found only under an exceedingly narrow set of circumstances, (2) the conclusion that (particular forms of) conflict and conflict management has positive functions can be criticized on methodological grounds, (3) even under favorable circumstances a number of serious negative functions can be identified as well, (4) negative functions easily outweigh positive functions, prohibiting the emergence of ‘positive workplace conflict’ (where conflict has predominantly positive consequences), and (5) organizations need cooperative conflict management not because it brings positive conflict, but because it prevents workplace conflict to hurt too much. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chlorination of para-substituted phenols: Formation of α, β-unsaturated C4-dialdehydes and C4-dicarboxylic acids

Despite the widespread occurrence of phenols in anthropogenic and natural compounds, their fate in reactions with hypochlorous acid (HOCl), one of the most common water treatment disinfectants, remains incompletely understood. To close this knowledge gap, this study investigated the formation of disinfection by-products (DBPs) in the reaction of free chlorine with seven para-substituted phenols. Based on the chemical structures of the DBPs and the reaction mechanisms leading to their formation, the DBPs were categorized into four groups: chlorophenols, coupling products, substituent reaction products, and ring cleavage products. In contrast to previous studies that investigated the formation of early-stage chlorophenols, the primary focus of this study was on the elucidation of novel ring cleavage products, in particular α, β-unsaturated C₄-dialdehydes, and C₄-dicarboxylic acids, which, for the first time, were identified and quantified in this study. The molar yields of 2-butene-1,4-dial (BDA), one of the identified α, β-unsaturated C₄-dialdehydes, varied among the different phenolic compounds, reaching a maximum value of 10.4% for bisphenol S. Molar yields of 2-chloromaleic acid (Cl-MA), one of the identified C₄-dicarboxylic acids, reached a maximum value of 30.5% for 4-hydroxy-phenylacetic acid under given conditions. 2,4,6-trichlorophenol (TCP) was shown to be an important intermediate of the parent phenols and the C₄-ring cleavage products. Based on the temporal trends of α, β-unsaturated C₄-dialdehydes and C₄-dicarboxylic acids, their formation is likely attributable to two separate ring cleavage pathways. Based on the obtained results, an overall transformation pathway for the reaction of para-substituted phenols with free chlorine leading to the formation of novel C₄ ring cleavage products was proposed.