Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003?C2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ??no-regret?? adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.     

Skeletal analysis and comparison of bog bodies from Northern European peat bogs

Although numerous bodies were deposited in Western European bogs in the past centuries, few were found and underwent archeological analysis. No studies comparing skeletal structure and mineralization of bog bodies from different ages have been performed to this day. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze and compare skeletal features and specifics of the human remains of three bog bodies from the Iron and Middle Ages found in Northern European peat bogs. Demineralization due to the acidic environment in peat bogs was comparably pronounced in all three bodies. Still, the macroscopic state of skeletal preservation was excellent. In addition to contact radiography, we used peripheral quantitative computed tomography to measure cortical bone mineral density. The conservation of skeletal three-dimensional microstructural elements was assessed by high-resolution microcomputed tomography analysis. These techniques revealed severe differences in bone mineral density and enabled us to determine handedness in all three bodies. Additionally, unique skeletal features like intravital bone lesions, immobilization osteoporosis, and Harris lines were found. A deformity of the left femoral head was observed which had the typical appearance of an advanced stage of Legg–Calve–Perthes disease. This study gives detailed insight into the skeletal microstructure and microarchitecture of 800- to 2,700-year-old bog bodies. Skeletal analysis enables us to draw conclusions not only concerning changes in the acidic environment of the bog, but also serves as a diagnostic tool to unravel life circumstances and diseases suffered by humans in the Iron and Middle Ages.     

Explosions in closed pipes containing baffles and 90 degree bends

There is a general lack of information on the effects of full-bore obstacles on combustion in the literature, these obstacles are prevalent in many applications and knowledge of their effects on phenomena including burning rate, flame acceleration and DDT is important for the correct placing of explosion safety devices such as flame arresters and venting devices. In this work methane, propane, ethylene and hydrogen–air explosions were investigated in an 18 m long DN150 closed pipe with a 90 degree bend and various baffle obstacles placed at a short distance from the ignition source. After carrying out multiple experiments with the same configuration it was found that a relatively large variance existed in the measured flame speeds and overpressures, this was attributed to a stochastic element in how flames evolved and also how they caused and interacted with turbulence to produce flame acceleration. This led to several experiments being carried out for one configuration in order to obtain a meaningful average. It was shown that a 90 degree bend in a long tube had the ability to enhance flame speeds and overpressures, and shorten the run-up distance to DDT to a varying degree for a number of gases. In terms of the qualitative effects on these parameters they were comparable to baffle type obstacles with a blockage ratios of between 10 and 20%.     

A comparison of four process-based models and a statistical regression model to predict growth of Eucalyptus globulus plantations

In forest management and ecological research, consideration of the impacts and risks of climate change or management optimisation is complex. Computer models have long been applied as tools for these tasks. Process-based forest growth models claim to overcome the limitations of empirical statistical models, but the capacity of different process-based models and modelling approaches have rarely been compared directly. This study evaluates stepwise multiple regression models in comparison to four process-based modelling approaches (3-PG, 3-PG+, CABALA and Forest-DNDC) for greenfield predictions of Eucalyptus globulus plantation growth from 2 to 8 years after planting throughout southern Australia.     

Modeling emissions for three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry transport models

Poor air quality is still a threat for human health in many parts of the world. In order to assess measures for emission reductions and improved air quality, three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry transport modeling systems are used in numerous research institutions and public authorities. These models need accurate emission data in appropriate spatial and temporal resolution as input. This paper reviews the most widely used emission inventories on global and regional scales and looks into the methods used to make the inventory data model ready. Shortcomings of using standard temporal profiles for each emission sector are discussed, and new methods to improve the spatiotemporal distribution of the emissions are presented. These methods are often neither top-down nor bottom-up approaches but can be seen as hybrid methods that use detailed information about the emission process to derive spatially varying temporal emission profiles. These profiles are subsequently used to distribute bulk emissions such as national totals on appropriate grids. The wide area of natural emissions is also summarized, and the calculation methods are described. Almost all types of natural emissions depend on meteorological information, which is why they are highly variable in time and space and frequently calculated within the chemistry transport models themselves. The paper closes with an outlook for new ways to improve model ready emission data, for example, by using external databases about road traffic flow or satellite data to determine actual land use or leaf area. In a world where emission patterns change rapidly, it seems appropriate to use new types of statistical and observational data to create detailed emission data sets and keep emission inventories up-to-date.

Implications: Emission data are probably the most important input for chemistry transport model (CTM) systems. They need to be provided in high spatial and temporal resolution and on a grid that is in agreement with the CTM grid. Simple methods to distribute the emissions in time and space need to be replaced by sophisticated emission models in order to improve the CTM results. New methods, e.g., for ammonia emissions, provide grid cell–dependent temporal profiles. In the future, large data fields from traffic observations or satellite observations could be used for more detailed emission data.     

Temperature-dependent ranges of coexistence in a model of a two-prey-one-predator microbial food web

The objective of our study was to analyze the effects of temperature on the population dynamics of a three-species food web consisting of two prey bacteria (Pedobacter sp. and Acinetobacter johnsonii) and a protozoan predator (Tetrahymena pyriformis) as model organisms. We assessed the effects of temperature on the growth rates of all three species with the objective of developing a model with four differential equations based on the experimental data. The following hypotheses were tested at a theoretical level: Firstly, temperature changes can affect the dynamic behavior of a system by temperature-dependent parameters and interactions and secondly, food web response to temperature cannot be derived from the single species temperature response. The main outcome of the study is that temperature changes affect the parameter range where coexistence is possible within all three species. This has significant consequences on our ideas regarding the evaluation of effects of global warming.