The alcohol interlock: an underutilized resource for predicting and controlling drunk drivers

This report summarizes evidence presented during the Third Annual Ignition Interlock Symposium at Vero Beach, Florida, 29 October 2002. The ignition interlock prevents a car from starting when blood alcohol concentration (BAC) is elevated. We review some of our prior work as well as introduce previously unpublished results to demonstrate the manner in which the data recorded by the alcohol ignition interlock device can serve as an advance predictor of future driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol risks. Data used in this current report represent approximately 2,200 ignition interlock users from Alberta, Canada, and about 8,000 interlock users from Quebec, Canada; the Alberta data set contained 5.5 million breath tests and the Quebec data 18.8 million breath tests. All tests are time and date stamped and this information was used to characterize patterns of BAC and vehicle use, and the relationship between BAC elevations and DUI offenses that accumulated after the interlock was removed from the vehicles. Findings from Cox regression show that BAC elevations >.02-.04% are more potent predictors of repeat DUI (p<.0001) than even prior DUI (p<.006), usually found to be the strongest indicator of driver risk. Prior DUI obviously has no use for scaling the risk of first-time offenders. Drivers who are both multiple offenders and who have more than a few elevated interlock BAC tests are much more likely to repeat DUI. The timing and pattern of elevated BAC tests provided during the time drivers were required to use an alcohol ignition interlock device are remarkably similar on both a daily basis and an hourly basis when the interlock programs from the two provinces are compared directly. Both provinces had higher rates of elevated tests on Saturday and Sunday, and the fewest elevated tests on Tuesdays. The absolute rate of elevated tests is similar despite the two provinces adhering to different interlock lockout points (.02% Quebec;.04% Alberta). Charts tracking the Monday-Friday timing of elevated BAC tests by hour are nearly identical for both provinces. The most elevated BAC tests occurred between 7 and 9 A.M. Monday to Friday, even though most vehicle start attempts occurred much later in the day. This higher rate of elevated morning BAC likely represents drinking from the prior evening with alcohol not yet cleared from circulation; those with elevated BAC in the early morning were more likely to have a repeat offense even after accounting for prior DUI and the higher overall rate of elevated BAC tests. This is viewed as evidence of a drinking problem that will lead to impaired driving after the controlling function of the interlock is removed. Policy changes are discussed that might take better advantage of interlock information to improve the public response to drunk driving.     

A coffee agroecosystem model: I. Growth and development of the coffee plant

This paper is the first of three on the coffee production system consisting of (1) the coffee plant, (2) coffee berry borer (CBB) and (3) the role of CBB parasitoids. A previous simulation model of the coffee plant was developed using data from Brazil where coffee phenology is characterized by distinct seasonal flowering (Gutierrez et al., 1998). In contrast, flowering in Colombia is continuous with low seasonality. To capture the differences in coffee phenology and growth in the two climatic regions, the Gutierrez et al. (1998) model was modified using new data from Colombia.The modifications to the model include:

(1)

The effect of solar radiation on floral buds initiation;

(2)

An age structure population model to track the daily input and development of the floral buds;

(3)

The effect of leaf water potential on breaking dormancy in flower buds, and hence on the timing and intensity of flowering;

(4)

The incorporation of both the vegetative and the reproductive demands to predict the photosynthetic rate.

(5)

The effect of low temperature on photosynthesis and defoliation.

Other aspects of the model were re-interpreted and refinements made to generalize its structure for use across coffee varieties and geographic areas. The model, without modification, realistically simulates field data from Brazil and two Colombian locations having different varieties, patterns of rainfall and hence flowering phenology.The model will be used as the base trophic level for incorporating CBB and high tropic levels effects, and for the analysis of management options in the coffee production system.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls in Narragansett Bay surface sediments

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were evaluated in 41 surface sediments collected from Narragansett Bay, RI in 1997-1998. Highest concentrations of total PCBs (1760 ng/g) were in rivers at the head of the bay and the values decreased southward toward the mouth of the bay, with elevated concentrations in some of the coves. The PCB levels in approximately 43% of the samples exceeded the effects range median (ERM) guideline [Environ. Manage. 19 (1995) 81] indicating possible adverse biological effects at these stations. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the surface sediment PCBs separated the Taunton River samples from the rest of the samples. This result suggests that this river has a different PCB composition and sources than the other areas investigated. It also showed that this river has a limited influence on other bay stations as the adjacent samples downstream did not have the same chemical signature. Congener ratios derived from the PCA were useful in distinguishing stations that had different sources of PCBs than the bulk of the bay sediments. Although Aroclor 1268 and 1270 accounted for <1% of all PCB production, their major components, CB206 and CB209, account for 3-6% of the CBs in most bay samples. This may reflect more local use of these Aroclor mixtures and/or be indicative of their relative stability, compared to less chlorinated mixtures. Using linear alkyl benzenes (LABs) as a marker for sewage derived PCBs suggested that up to 95% of the PCBs at the most contaminated sites in the Seekonk, Providence, and Taunton Rivers were sewage derived. This analysis also showed that there is a high background level (167 ng/g) of PCBs in the Seekonk and Providence River, while the Taunton River had a relatively low background level (23.7 ng/g). At the furthest stations south in the Providence River, the sewage derived PCBs only accounted for 23% of the total which suggests that PCB associated with sewage particles are rapidly deposited and are therefore not the most significant source of these compounds to the lower reaches of Narragansett Bay.     

A comparison of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and petroleum hydrocarbon uptake by mussels (Perna viridis) and semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs) in Hong Kong coastal waters

The ability of mussels (Perna viridis) and semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs) to accumulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and petroleum hydrocarbons (PHCs) from five sites in Hong Kong's coastal waters was compared. Mussels consistently had higher levels of contaminants, but their utility was limited at one highly polluted site due to mortality. Mussels and SPMDs ranked sites differently in terms of individual contaminant levels. Although SPMDs overcome many of the disadvantages of using living organisms to measure contaminants in marine waters, they cannot be used as "mimics" due to different PAH and PHC accumulation patterns.     

Isomeric analysis of PCDD/PCDF in waste incinerator fly ash by GC-MS/MS

The development of an analytical method for the analysis of PCDD/PCDF in flyash using a bench analytical system comprising of a gas chromatograph fitted with an ion trap detector operated in the tandem MS mode is described. The optimum settings for the most important MS/MS parameters are given, including those for the less reported mono- to tri-chlorinated dioxin and furan congener groups. Flyash samples from three waste incineration plants representing a decommissioned 1970s plant design, an upgraded and still operating plant originally designed in the 1970s, and a modern 1990s design operating plant have been analysed for PCDD/PCDF. The flyash samples were analysed for PCDD/PCDF using the methods developed and the total PCDD/PCDF, I-TEQ values and isomeric profiles are reported. The flyash from the older decommissioned incinerator had very significantly higher concentrations of PCDD/PCDF compared to the modern incinerator flyash.     

State-Space Modeling of the Relationship between Air Quality and Mortality

ABSTRACT

A portion of a population is assumed to be at risk, with the mortality hazard varying with atmospheric conditions including total suspended particulates (TSP). This at-risk population is not observed and the hazard function is unknown; we wish to estimate these from mortality count and atmospheric variables. Consideration of population dynamics leads to a state-space representation, allowing the Kalman Filter (KF) to be used for estimation. A harvesting effect is thus implied; high mortality is followed by lower mortality until the population is replenished by new arrivals.

The model is applied to daily data for Philadelphia, PA, 1973-1990. The estimated hazard function rises with the level of TSP and at extremes of temperature and also reflects a positive interaction between TSP and temperature. The estimated at-risk population averages about 480 and varies seasonally. We find that lags of TSP are statistically significant, but the presence of negative coefficients suggests their role may be partially statistical rather than biological. In the population dynamics framework, the natural metric for health damage from air pollution is its impact on life expectancy. The range of hazard rates over the sample period is 0.07 to 0.085, corresponding to life expectancies of 14.3 and 11.8 days, respectively.     

Tagging Diesel and Residential Oil Furnace Emissions in Roanoke,Virginia, with Enriched Isotopes of Samarium

Stable isotopic tracers were used in Roanoke, Virginia, to tag particulate emissions from diesel trucks and residential oil furnaces, two sources of soot and PAHs which cannot be differentiated on the basis of known constituents. Approximately 1.6 g of enriched ¹⁴⁹Sm were used to tag 264 m³ of diesel fuel burned by the city bus and truck fleets; 0.39 g of ¹⁵⁰Sm were used to tag 106 m³ of residential heating oil. Picogram amounts of the tracers were determined simultaneously by thermal-ionization mass spectrometry in fine particles collected within the city at signal-to-noise ratios as large as 6000. These results demonstrate the feasibility of tracing particles from multiple combustion sources with stable, separated isotopes.