Predicting biodiversity change: outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.     

Genomic erosion in a demographically recovered bird species during conservation rescue

The pink pigeon (Nesoenas mayeri) is an endemic species of Mauritius that has made a remarkable recovery after a severe population bottleneck in the 1970s to early 1990s. Prior to this bottleneck, an ex situ population was established from which captive-bred individuals were released into free-living subpopulations to increase population size and genetic variation. This conservation rescue led to rapid population recovery to 400–480 individuals, and the species was twice downlisted on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. We analyzed the impacts of the bottleneck and genetic rescue on neutral genetic variation during and after population recovery (1993–2008) with restriction site-associated sequencing, microsatellite analyses, and quantitative genetic analysis of studbook data of 1112 birds from zoos in Europe and the United States. We used computer simulations to study the predicted changes in genetic variation and population viability from the past into the future. Genetic variation declined rapidly, despite the population rebound, and the effective population size was approximately an order of magnitude smaller than census size. The species carried a high genetic load of circa 15 lethal equivalents for longevity. Our computer simulations predicted continued inbreeding will likely result in increased expression of deleterious mutations (i.e., a high realized load) and severe inbreeding depression. Without continued conservation actions, it is likely that the pink pigeon will go extinct in the wild within 100 years. Conservation rescue of the pink pigeon has been instrumental in the recovery of the free-living population. However, further genetic rescue with captive-bred birds from zoos is required to recover lost variation, reduce expression of harmful deleterious variation, and prevent extinction. The use of genomics and modeling data can inform IUCN assessments of the viability and extinction risk of species, and it helps in assessments of the conservation dependency of populations.     

Evaluating unintended consequences of intentional species introductions and eradications for improved conservation management

Increasingly intensive strategies to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function are being deployed in response to global anthropogenic threats, including intentionally introducing and eradicating species via assisted migration, rewilding, biological control, invasive species eradications, and gene drives. These actions are highly contentious because of their potential for unintended consequences. We conducted a global literature review of these conservation actions to quantify how often unintended outcomes occur and to elucidate their underlying causes. To evaluate conservation outcomes, we developed a community assessment framework for systematically mapping the range of possible interaction types for 111 case studies. Applying this tool, we quantified the number of interaction types considered in each study and documented the nature and strength of intended and unintended outcomes. Intended outcomes were reported in 51% of cases, a combination of intended outcomes and unintended outcomes in 26%, and strictly unintended outcomes in 10%. Hence, unintended outcomes were reported in 36% of all cases evaluated. In evaluating overall conservations outcomes (weighing intended vs. unintended effects), some unintended effects were fairly innocuous relative to the conservation objective, whereas others resulted in serious unintended consequences in recipient communities. Studies that assessed a greater number of community interactions with the target species reported unintended outcomes more often, suggesting that unintended consequences may be underreported due to insufficient vetting. Most reported unintended outcomes arose from direct effects (68%) or simple density-mediated or indirect effects (25%) linked to the target species. Only a few documented cases arose from more complex interaction pathways (7%). Therefore, most unintended outcomes involved simple interactions that could be predicted and mitigated through more formal vetting. Our community assessment framework provides a tool for screening future conservation actions by mapping the recipient community interaction web to identify and mitigate unintended outcomes from intentional species introductions and eradications for conservation.     

Love bites: male fang use during coercive mating in wolf spiders

Evolutionary conflicts of interest between the sexes are common, as mating tactics and strategies that increase fitness benefits for one sex may incur costs for the other. As a consequence, antagonistic coevolution between the sexes often results in a complex arms race between male persistence and female resistance. Coercive mating (e.g., forced copulation) likely benefits males by increasing the probability of mating; however, costs to females may be high, including injury or even death. Here, we report on a study of the use of fangs by males of the wolf spider Schizocosa ocreata (Hentz) during forcible mating with resistant females, which results in hemolymph loss and scar tissue formation in females. Microscopic inspection revealed that fang wounds (evidenced by scar tissue) were absent on unmated (virgin) females but were found on mated females and were significantly more frequent in coercively mated females. Experimental fang immobilization studies found no difference in copulation success between experimental (fangs immobilized) and control (sham manipulation) males. However, males that had use of their fangs had significantly longer copulation duration. These findings represent a previously unknown male mating tactic in spiders and an unrecognized potential cost of mating for female spiders.     

Scale-dependent responses of plant biodiversity to nitrogen enrichment

Experimental studies demonstrating that nitrogen (N) enrichment reduces plant diversity within individual plots have led to the conclusion that anthropogenic N enrichment is a threat to global biodiversity. These conclusions overlook the influence of spatial scale, however, as N enrichment may alter beta diversity (i.e., how similar plots are in their species composition), which would likely alter the degree to which N-induced changes in diversity within localities translate to changes in diversity at larger scales that are relevant to policy and management. Currently, it is unclear how N enrichment affects biodiversity at scales larger than a small plot. We synthesized data from 18 N-enrichment experiments across North America to examine the effects of N enrichment on plant species diversity at three spatial scales: small (within plots), intermediate (among plots), and large (within and among plots). We found that N enrichment reduced plant diversity within plots by an average of 25% (ranging from a reduction of 61% to an increase of 5%) and frequently enhanced beta diversity. The extent to which N enrichment altered beta diversity, however, varied substantially among sites (from a 22% increase to an 18% reduction) and was contingent on site productivity. Specifically, N enrichment enhanced beta diversity at low-productivity sites but reduced beta diversity at high-productivity sites. N-induced changes in beta diversity generally reduced the extent of species loss at larger scales to an average of 22% (ranging from a reduction of 54% to an increase of 18%). Our results demonstrate that N enrichment often reduces biodiversity at both local and regional scales, but that a focus on the effects of N enrichment on biodiversity at small spatial scales may often overestimate (and sometimes underestimate) declines in regional biodiversity by failing to recognize the effects of N on beta diversity.     

Modeling transit bus fuel consumption on the basis of cycle properties

A method exists to predict heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy and emissions over an "unseen" cycle or during unseen on-road activity on the basis of fuel consumption and emissions data from measured chassis dynamometer test cycles and properties (statistical parameters) of those cycles. No regression is required for the method, which relies solely on the linear association of vehicle performance with cycle properties. This method has been advanced and examined using previously published heavy-duty truck data gathered using the West Virginia University heavy-duty chassis dynamometer with the trucks exercised over limited test cycles. In this study, data were available from a Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority emission testing program conducted in 2006. Chassis dynamometer data from two conventional diesel buses, two compressed natural gas buses, and one hybrid diesel bus were evaluated using an expanded driving cycle set of 16 or 17 different driving cycles. Cycle properties and vehicle fuel consumption measurements from three baseline cycles were selected to generate a linear model and then to predict unseen fuel consumption over the remaining 13 or 14 cycles. Average velocity, average positive acceleration, and number of stops per distance were found to be the desired cycle properties for use in the model. The methodology allowed for the prediction of fuel consumption with an average error of 8.5% from vehicles operating on a diverse set of chassis dynamometer cycles on the basis of relatively few experimental measurements. It was found that the data used for prediction should be acquired from a set that must include an idle cycle along with a relatively slow transient cycle and a relatively high speed cycle. The method was also applied to oxides of nitrogen prediction and was found to have less predictive capability than for fuel consumption with an average error of 20.4%.     

Reporting central tendencies of chamber measured surface emission and oxidation

Methane emissions, concentrations, and oxidation were measured on eleven MSW landfills in eleven states spanning from California to Pennsylvania during the three year study. The flux measurements were performed using a static chamber technique. Initial concentration samples were collected immediately after placement of the flux chamber. Oxidation of the emitted methane was evaluated using stable isotope techniques. When reporting overall surface emissions and percent oxidation for a landfill cover, central tendencies are typically used to report “averages” of the collected data. The objective of this study was to determine the best way to determine and report central tendencies. Results showed that 89% of the data sets of collected surface flux have lognormal distributions, 83% of the surface concentration data sets are also lognormal. Sixty seven percent (67%) of the isotope measured percent oxidation data sets are normally distributed. The distribution of data for all eleven landfills provides insight of the central tendencies of emissions, concentrations, and percent oxidation. When reporting the “average” measurement for both flux and concentration data collected at the surface of a landfill, statistical analyses provided insight supporting the use of the geometric mean. But the arithmetic mean can accurately represent the percent oxidation, as measured with the stable isotope technique. We examined correlations between surface CH₄ emissions and surface air CH₄ concentrations. Correlation of the concentration and flux values using the geometric mean proved to be a good fit (R² = 0.86), indicating that surface scans are a good way of identifying locations of high emissions.     

Environmental pollutants and type 2 diabetes: a review of human studies

The incidence of diabetes has increased dramatically in recent decades and become one of the leading health problems worldwide. Lifestyle and dietary changes alone cannot account for the dramatic rise of diabetes, while an increasing number of publications have reported the possible relationships between exposure to environmental pollutants and risk of diabetes. In the present review, our objective was to summarize the human studies on environmental pollutants, which includes persistent organic pollutants, pesticides (not on the Stockholm Convention list), bisphenol A, and phthalates, and the risk of diabetes. Currently published results suggest a positive relationship between certain persistent organic pollutants (dichlorodiphenyldichloroethene, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, hexachlorobenzene, and polychlorinated biphenyls) and bisphenol A exposure and risk of diabetes. For pyrethroids, organophosphates, carbamates, and phthalates, there are insufficient studies to reach conclusions and therefore more studies, especially prospective studies, are needed along with in vivo and in vitro studies to understand the underlying mechanisms.     

Influence of prairie restoration on CT-measured soil pore characteristics

Restored prairies are expected to improve soil physical properties, yet little is known about the extent of change to soil properties and how rapidly these changes take place. The objective of this study was to compare effects of prairie restoration on computed tomography (CT)-measured pore parameters. Undisturbed soil cores (76 mm diam. by 76 mm long) from native prairie (NP), restored prairie (RP), conservation reserve program (CRP), and no-till corn (Zea mays L.)-soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.; CS) sites were collected with six replicates from the 0- to 40-cm depth in 10-cm increments. Five CT images were acquired from each soil core using a medical CT scanner with 0.2 by 0.2 mm pixel resolution with 0.5 mm slice thickness, and then images were analyzed. Soil bulk density and hydraulic conductivity (K(sat)) were also measured. Soils under NP, RP, CRP, and CS areas had 83, 43, 48, and 26 pores on a 2500 mm(2) area, respectively, for the 0- to 40-cm depth. The number of pores, number of macropores (>1000 microm diam.), macroporosity, mesoporosity (200-1000 microm diam.), and fractal dimension were significantly higher and pore circularity was lower for NP, RP, and CRP than the CS treatment. The CT-measured mesoporosity and macroporosity of the CS treatment were 20 and 18% of the values for the NP site. CT-measured number of pores and macropores explained 43 and 40% of the variation for K(sat). The study showed that prairie restoration improves CT-measured soil pore parameters and decreases bulk density which are related to soil water infiltration.     

Unprecedented bleaching-induced mortality in Porites spp. at Rangiroa Atoll, French Polynesia

In April-May 1998, mass coral bleaching was observed in the lagoon of Rangiroa Atoll, Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia. Six months later, the extent of bleaching-induced coral mortality was assessed at three sites. Corals in the fast-growing genus Pocillopora had experienced >99% mortality. Many large colonies of the slow-growing genus Porites (mean horizontal cross-sectional area 5.8 m²) had also died - a phenomenon not previously observed in French Polynesia and virtually unprecedented world-wide. At one site, 25% of colonies, or 44% of the pre-bleaching cover of living Porites, experienced whole-colony mortality. At the two other sites, recently dead Porites accounted for 41% and 82% of the pre-bleaching live cover. Mortality in Porites was negatively correlated with depth between 1.5 and 5 m. Using a 50-year dataset of mean monthly sea surface temperature (SST), derived from ship- and satellite-borne instruments, we show that bleaching occurred during a period of exceptionally high summer SST. 1998 was the first year in which mean monthly SSTs exceeded the 1961-1990 upper 95% confidence limit (29.4°C) for a period of three consecutive months. We suggest that the sustained 3-month anomaly in local summer SST was a major cause of coral mortality, but do not discount the synergistic effect of solar radiation. Recovery of the size-frequency distribution of Porites colonies to pre-bleaching levels may take at least 100 years.