Toward understanding the human dimensions of the rapidly changing arctic system: insights and approaches from five HARC projects

Human dimensions research focuses on the interrelationships between humans and the environment. To date, human dimensions research in arctic regions has concentrated primarily on local events and contexts. As such, it complements analysis elsewhere of adaptation and sustainable development within broad institutional, social, and environmental contexts. This paper reviews five projects from the Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC) initiative, established by the US National Science Foundation in 1997. Common themes and findings are highlighted: climatic variations or change affect societies through interactions with human activities; population dynamics provide key quantitative indicators of social impacts and well being; and specific impacts and responses are the result of complex, context-sensitive interactions. Congruent approaches to the challenges of interdisciplinary research are also identified: multivariate time plots aid the integration of data, retrospective and prospective studies are part of a continuum and reinforce one another, comparative studies are essential for understanding general principles of human dimensions, and arctic residents can play a vital role in research and action.     

Reconstructing the movements of free-ranging demersal fish in the North Sea: a data-matching and simulation method

Demersal fish cannot be readily tracked using data loggers that provide satellite-based or light-based geolocation. Moreover, fish that are highly mobile within the water column cannot readily be located with other methods, such as the tidal location method (TLM). As an alternative, we describe a process that provides estimates of geographic location by simulating movement paths through geographic locations that match temperature and depth data recorded by data loggers. Depths and temperatures recorded by data loggers were compared with a North Sea temperature and depth database to identify all locations with matching data. A movement rate filter was then applied to eliminate spurious locations and simulations of possible movement paths through the remaining positions were used to generate estimates of the likelihood of a particular location having been occupied. The performance of the technique was assessed by reconstructing movement paths of artificial migrations and by using depth and temperature data collected at known locations in the North Sea. Estimates of the positional accuracy and error were comparable to the North Sea TLM. Reconstructions of the migrations of cod tagged and released in the North Sea were successfully achieved with the method. This method has application in defining the movements and migrations of commercial species in any sea area where databases of commonly measured environmental variables are available.     

Predator diversity and identity drive interaction strength and trophic cascades in a food web

Declining predator diversity may drastically affect the biomass and productivity of herbivores and plants. Understanding how changes in predator diversity can propagate through food webs to alter ecosystem function is one of the most challenging ecological research topics today. We studied the effects of predator removal in a simple natural food web in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California (USA). By excluding the predators of the third trophic level of a food web in a full-factorial design, we monitored cascading effects of varying predator diversity and composition on the herbivorous beetle Chrysomela aeneicollis and the willow Salix orestera, which compose the first and second trophic levels of the food web. Decreasing predator diversity increased herbivore biomass and survivorship, and consequently increased the amount of plant biomass consumed via a trophic cascade. Despite this simple linear mean effect of diversity on the strength of the trophic cascade, we found additivity, compensation, and interference in the effects of multiple predators on herbivores and plants. Herbivore survivorship and predator-prey interaction strengths varied with predator diversity, predator identity, and the identity of coexisting predators. Additive effects of predators on herbivores and plants may have been driven by temporal niche separation, whereas compensatory effects and interference occurred among predators with a similar phenology. Together, these results suggest that while the general trends of diversity effects may appear linear and additive, other information about species identity was required to predict the effects of removing individual predators. In a community that is not temporally well-mixed, predator traits such as phenology may help predict impacts of species loss on other species. Information about predator natural history and food web structure may help explain variation in predator diversity effects on trophic cascades and ecosystem function.     

Restoring piscivorous fish populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes causes seabird dietary change

Ecosystem change often affects the structure of aquatic communities thereby regulating how much and by what pathways energy and critical nutrients flow through food webs. The availability of energy and essential nutrients to top predators such as seabirds that rely on resources near the water's surface will be affected by changes in pelagic prey abundance. Here, we present results from analysis of a 25-year data set documenting dietary change in a predatory seabird from the Laurentian Great Lakes. We reveal significant declines in trophic position and alterations in energy and nutrient flow over time. Temporal changes in seabird diet tracked decreases in pelagic prey fish abundance. As pelagic prey abundance declined, birds consumed less aquatic prey and more terrestrial food. This pattern was consistent across all five large lake ecosystems. Declines in prey fish abundance may have primarily been the result of predation by stocked piscivorous fishes, but other lake-specific factors were likely also important. Natural resource management activities can have unintended consequences for nontarget ecosystem components. Reductions in pelagic prey abundance have reduced the capacity of the Great Lakes to support the energetic requirements of surface-feeding seabirds. In an environment characterized by increasingly limited pelagic fish resources, they are being offered a Hobsonian choice: switch to less nutritious terrestrial prey or go hungry.     

Assessment of regional capabilities for agricultural coexistence with genetically modified maize

Background

The coexistence of agricultural production with and without the use of genetically modified (GV) crops is supposed to be made possible in Germany by regulations, which include minimal distances of GV-fields to potentially susceptible crop fields and habitats. To explore the impact of these regulations on region specific coexistence potentials, we broadened the applicability of an existing method for the simulation of the spatial distribution of arable fields cropped with conventional, organic and GV-maize. We used simulations which combine a variety of minimum distances of GV-maize fields to assess regional specific options and limitations for coexistence.

Results

An existing method was extended to be applicable for different spatial scales, from the large (e.g. Federal State) to small (e.g. municipality). Input data consisted of cropping statistics, geometry of arable fields and protected areas. Scenarios of cropping situations included various minimal distances between GV-maize fields and protected areas and various proportions of maize within the areas. The results of the simulations represent possible distribution patterns of non-GV and GV-maize fields as well as the size of the remaining area in which additional GV-maize can be grown without violating the minimal distance rules. As suspected, increasing proportions of GV-maize and increasing minimal distances lower the areas suitable for additional GV-maize. However, the relation between the area of GV-maize grown and those suitable for GV-maize cultivation varied between the scenarios. Moreover, the variability between the municipalities was even more evident, due to varying landscape structure (proportion of maize, the ratio total arable land to maize, proportion of protected areas). Areas with high proportions of GV-maize, of protected areas and of maize could be problematical for coexistence. We discuss these parameters with regard to other coexistence studies.

Conclusions

Our method is suitable to simulate the spatial distribution of fields cultivated with GV-crops and non-GV-crops on various scales. Simulations on the scale of a Federal State reveals those areas, in which coexistence could be problematical. Simulations on a county scale, however, allow more insight into options and restrictions for coexistence in relation to landscape structural characteristics, which also can be transferred to larger scales. On the scale of municipalities simulations can help to analyse the limits of coexistence in areas of high conflict potential, moreover this level is more realistic with regard to practical agricultural decisions on the farm level.

Zusammenfassung

Hintergrund

Die Koexistenz verschiedener landwirtschaftlicher Produktionsformen ?C mit und ohne Anbau von gentechnisch ver?nderten Pflanzen (GVO) ?C soll durch gesetzlich fixierte Regeln erm?glicht werden, die unter anderem die Mindestabst?nde von GVO-Anbaufl?chen zu potenziell empfindlichen anderen Ackerfl?chen und Biotopen festlegen. Hier wurde eine Methode weiterentwickelt zur Simulation der r?umlichen Verteilung der Anbaufl?chen von konventionellem, ?kologischem und GV-Mais um regionsspezifische Koexistenzpotenziale von gentechnisch ver?ndertem Mais, sowie potenzielle Konfliktgebiete zu identifizieren.

Ergebnisse

Eine für Brandenburg entwickelte GIS-Simulationsmethode wurde durch die Verwendung fl?chendeckend vorhandener Daten so erweitert, dass sie bundesweit übertragbar ist und auf unterschiedlichen r?umlichen Skalenebenen angewandt werden kann, von gro?r?umig (Bundesland) bis lokal (Gemeinde). Als Eingangsdaten wurden Anbaustatistiken sowie Geometrien der Ackerfl?chen und von FFH- und Naturschutzgebieten verwendet. In den Szenarien wurden Abstandsregelungen zwischen Maisanbaufl?chen und zu Schutzgebieten und der GV-Maisanteil variiert. Die Ergebnisse der Simulation sind m?gliche r?umliche Verteilungen von Nicht-GV-Mais und GV-Mais sowie die potenziell für den Anbau von GV-Mais zur Verfügung stehende Fl?che. Mit zunehmendem GV-Maisanteil und Mindestabst?nden zu Schutzgebieten wird die für den GV-Mais zur Verfügung stehende Fl?che st?rker ausgesch?pft. Der Anteil des GV-Mais an der potenziell für den Anbau von GV-Mais zur Verfügung stehenden Fl?che variierte zwischen den Szenarien, und noch st?rker jedoch regional zwischen den Landkreisen, verursacht durch deren verschiedene agrar- und landschaftsstrukturelle Ausstattung (Maisanbauanteil, Verh?ltnis Ackerlandsanteil/Maisanbauanteil, Schutzgebietsanteil). Ein r?umliches Konfliktpotenzial bei der Umsetzung der Koexistenz ist in Gebieten hohen Nutzungsdrucks zu erwarten, d.h. in denen sowohl der Maisanbauanteil an der Ackerfl?che und der Anbauanteil von GV-Mais, als auch der Schutzgebietsanteil hoch sind. Diese Faktoren werden diskutiert in Bezug zu Ergebnissen weiterer Koexistenzstudien.

Schlussfolgerungen

Die vorgestellte Methode ist geeignet, die r?umliche Verteilung des Anbaus von Nicht-GV-Mais und GV-Mais auf unterschiedlichen Skalenebenen zu simulieren: Die Ebene eines Bundeslandes liefert Hinweise auf Gebiete, in denen die Koexistenz problematisch sein k?nnte und kann als Grundlage weiterer Berechnungen, wie zum Beispiel der Modellierung von Genflüssen auf Landesebene dienen. Die Simulation auf der Ebene eines Landkreises oder einer Gemeinde erm?glicht genauere Aussagen über die M?glichkeiten und Grenzen der Koexistenz. Auf der Ebene der Landkreise k?nnen z.B. unterschiedliche agrar- und landschaftsstrukturelle Situationen untersucht und für eine nachfolgende Regionalisierung angewandt werden. Die Ebene der Gemeinden erlaubt die Analyse der Grenzen der Koexistenz für Gebiete mit h?herem r?umlichen Konfliktpotenzial. Simulationen auf lokaler Ebene erscheinen darüber hinaus n?her an den Entscheidungsm?glichkeiten der landwirtschaftlichen Praxis.     

Long-term monitoring of environmental change in German towns through the use of lichens as biological indicators: comparison between the surveys of 1970, 1980, 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2010 in Wetzlar and Giessen

Background

In the years 1970, 1980, 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2010, lichen mapping in the towns of Wetzlar and Giessen in Hesse was performed. The aim was to show the effects of immission load. Despite the application of modified test methods during the study period, the results can still be compared directly because they could be adapted to the requirements of the guidelines of the Association of German Engineers. Even the earlier study results could be interpreted partly within the scope of the guidelines. Parallel to the lichen mapping, comparative examinations of pH on tree bark were carried out.

Results

In both towns, the pH of the tree bark has been increasing continuously, presently almost reaching pre-industrial values. The increase was stronger in Wetzlar than in Giessen. In 1970, the lichen vegetation showed a complete depletion. Since then the number of species has risen significantly. This development happened faster and more intensely in Wetzlar. The comparison of the lichen vegetation between 1970 and 2010 also shows an increased existence of species that are favored by hypertrophic air contaminants. In the 2010 survey, some species considered as being promoted by global warming were found for the first time.

Conclusions

The increase of the bark pH can be explained by the decreasing acid pollution, primarily SO₂. This is also assumed to be the main cause for the increasing number of lichen species. An explanation for Wetzlar's advantage is that the acid pollutants had been neutralized by a local industrial emittent of lime dust. With the reduction of dust emissions in Wetzlar due to the installation of filters, the bark pH in both towns steadily converged in the reference period. An examination of pre-industrial lichen studies shows that in both towns the original state of lichen vegetation has not been restored yet.     

Experimental and environmental factors affect spurious detection of ecological thresholds

Threshold detection methods are increasingly popular for assessing nonlinear responses to environmental change, but their statistical performance remains poorly understood. We simulated linear change in stream benthic macroinvertebrate communities and evaluated the performance of commonly used threshold detection methods based on model fitting (piecewise quantile regression [PQR]), data partitioning (nonparametric change point analysis [NCPA]), and a hybrid approach (significant zero crossings [SiZer]). We demonstrated that false detection of ecological thresholds (type I errors) and inferences on threshold locations are influenced by sample size, rate of linear change, and frequency of observations across the environmental gradient (i.e., sample-environment distribution, SED). However, the relative importance of these factors varied among statistical methods and between inference types. False detection rates were influenced primarily by user-selected parameters for PQR (tau) and SiZer (bandwidth) and secondarily by sample size (for PQR) and SED (for SiZer). In contrast, the location of reported thresholds was influenced primarily by SED. Bootstrapped confidence intervals for NCPA threshold locations revealed strong correspondence to SED. We conclude that the choice of statistical methods for threshold detection should be matched to experimental and environmental constraints to minimize false detection rates and avoid spurious inferences regarding threshold location.     

Natural attenuation of chlorinated ethene compounds: model development and field-scale application at the Dover site

A multi-dimensional and multi-species reactive transport model was developed to aid in the analysis of natural attenuation design at chlorinated solvent sites. The model can simulate several simultaneously occurring attenuation processes including aerobic and anaerobic biological degradation processes. The developed model was applied to analyze field-scale transport and biodegradation processes occurring at the Area-6 site in Dover Air Force Base, Delaware. The model was calibrated to field data collected at this site. The calibrated model reproduced the general groundwater flow patterns, and also, it successfully recreated the observed distribution of tetrachloroethene (PCE), trichloroethene (TCE), dichloroethylene (DCE), vinyl chloride (VC) and chloride plumes. Field-scale decay rates of these contaminant plumes were also estimated. The decay rates are within the range of values that were previously estimated based on lab-scale microcosm and field-scale transect analyses. Model simulation results indicated that the anaerobic degradation rate of TCE, source loading rate, and groundwater transport rate are the important model parameters. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicated that the shape and extent of the predicted TCE plume is most sensitive to transmissivity values. The total mass of the predicted TCE plume is most sensitive to TCE anaerobic degradation rates. The numerical model developed in this study is a useful engineering tool for integrating field-scale natural attenuation data within a rational modeling framework. The model results can be used for quantifying the relative importance of various simultaneously occurring natural attenuation processes.     

Phytoremediation organischer Schadstoffe

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Nutrient criteria for lakes,ponds, and reservoirs: A Bayesian TREED model approach

We develop regional-scale eutrophication models for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs to investigate the link between nutrients and chlorophyll-a. The Bayesian TREED (BTREED) model approach allows association of multiple environmental stressors with biological responses, and quantification of uncertainty sources in the empirical water quality model. Nutrient data for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the United States were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Nutrient Criteria Database. The nutrient data consist of measurements for both stressor variables (such as total nitrogen and total phosphorus), and response variables (such as chlorophyll-a), used in the BTREED model. Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) posterior exploration guides a stochastic search through a rich suite of candidate trees toward models that better fit the data. The Bayes factor provides a goodness of fit criterion for comparison of resultant models. We randomly split the data into training and test sets; the training data were used in model estimation, and the test data were used to evaluate out-of-sample predictive performance of the model. An average relative efficiency of 1.02 between the training and test data for the four highest log-likelihood models suggests good out-of-sample predictive performance. Reduced model uncertainty relative to over-parameterized alternative models makes the BTREED models useful for nutrient criteria development, providing the link between nutrient stressors and meaningful eutrophication response.