Estimating percentiles from composite environmental samples when all observations are nondetectable

Many environmental sampling problems involve some specified regulatory or contractual limit (RL). Often the interest is in estimating the percentile of the underlying contaminant concentration distribution corresponding to RL. The focus of this paper is on obtaining a point estimate and a lower confidence limit for that percentile when all observations are nondetectable, with the ith observation known to be less than some detection limit DLI, where DLi RL. Since composite samples are being considered, it is not unreasonable to assume an underlying normal distribution.     

Achieving forest carbon information with higher certainty: A five-part plan

International negotiations on the inclusion of land use activities into an emissions reduction system for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have been partially hindered by the technical challenges of measuring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the policy issues of leakage, additionality, and permanence. This paper outlines a five-part plan for estimating forest carbon stocks and emissions with the accuracy and certainty needed to support a policy for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, forest conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (the REDD-plus framework considered at the UNFCCC COP-15) in developing countries. The plan is aimed at UNFCCC non-Annex 1 developing countries, but the principles outlined are also applicable to developed (Annex 1) countries. The parts of the plan are: (1) Expand the number of national forest carbon Measuring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems with a priority on tropical developing countries; (2) Implement continuous global forest carbon assessments through the network of national systems; (3) Achieve commitments from national space agencies for the necessary satellite data; (4) Establish agreed-on standards and independent verification processes to ensure robust reporting; and (5) Enhance coordination among international and multilateral organizations.     

Humanitarian governance and the consequences of the state‐fragility discourse in the Democratic Republic of Congo's health sector

This paper examines how the discourse on state fragility affects the preferences of key actors in humanitarian governance for different types of health‐sector interventions in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It argues that, instead of focusing on the actual meaning of state fragility, attention should be paid to interactive processes around the discourse among stakeholders in the health sector. The lack of consensus on state fragility influences humanitarian governance, especially the perceptions of and interactions between the host government, donors, and international non‐governmental organisations. The latter have legitimised the persistence of vertical, emergency‐based interventions by emphasising state fragility, whereas state officials have preferred to assert political statehood and a higher degree of control. Nevertheless, they agree that donors’ financial contributions ensure the survival of the public health sector. Looking ahead, a policy coalition based on harmonised views about addressing fragility is necessary for effective engagement and the sustainability of interventions, but this is unlikely to happen any time soon.     

Environmental Technology Verification (ETV) test of dioxin emission monitors

The performance of four dioxin emission monitors, including two long-term sampling devices, the Dioxin-MonitoringSystem (DMS) and AMESA (the adsorption method for sampling dioxins and furans), and two semireal-time continuous monitors, the resonance ionization with multimirror photon accumulation time-of-flight mass spectrometer (RIMMPA-TOFMS) and the jet resonance-enhanced multiphoton ionization (jet-REMPI) system were tested. A package boiler burning a simulated chlorinated hazardous waste was used for a total of nine tests. Reference samples were collected during each test and analyzed for polychlorinated dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDDs/Fs) using gas chromatography mass spectrometry. The PCDD/F concentrations of the reference samples measured by EPA Method 23 ranged from 0.9 to 6.0 ng toxic equivalence (TEQ)/dry standard cubic meter. The relative accuracies achieved by DMS, AMESA, and jet-REMPI varied from 22.6% to 78.2%, with 100% data completeness. The RIMMPA-TOFMS produced no quantifiable results due to various difficulties associated with the instrument during the testing. The two long-term samplers were easy to install and operate and provided a cumulative, averaged emission for the sampling period. The operations of the two semi-real-time continuous monitors were relatively complex, but one of them provided on-site, real-time data for PCDD/F emissions from measurement of a TEQ correlative indicator compound. This article summarizes results from the individual Environmental Technology Verification reports for the four dioxin monitors. This work was presented, in part, at the Fourth International Conference on Combustion, Incineration/Pyrolysis and Emission Control (i-CIPEC)     

Supply Curves for Using Powder River Basin Coal to Reduce Sulfur Emissions

Abstract

Supply curves were prepared for coal-fired power plants in the contiguous United States switching to Wyoming's Powder River Basin (PRB) low-sulfur coal. Up to 625 plants, representing ～44% of the nameplate capacity of all coal-fired plants, could switch. If all switched, more than $8.8 billion additional capital would be required and the cost of electricity would increase by up to $5.9 billion per year, depending on levels of plant derating. Coal switching would result in sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions reduction of 4.5 million t/yr. Increase in cost of electricity would be in the range of 0.31-0.73 cents per kilowatt-hour. Average cost of S emissions reduction could be as high as $1298 per t of SO₂. Up to 367 plants, or 59% of selected plants with 32% of 44% nameplate capacity, could have marginal cost in excess of $1000 per t of SO₂. Up to 73 plants would appear to benefit from both a lowering of the annual cost and a lowering of SO₂ emissions by switching to the PRB coal.     

Influence of x-ray diffraction sample preparation on quantitative mineralogy: implications for chromate waste treatment

Powders of chromite ore processing residue (COPR) were mineralogically evaluated using quantitative X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) to illustrate the impacts of sample preparation procedures. Chromite ore processing residue is strongly alkaline, reactive, contains minerals of varying hardness and absorption coefficients, and exhibits significant amorphicity. This poses a challenge to produce powders for XRPD analysis that are sufficiently fine and of uniform particle size while avoiding mineral reactions and overgrinding effects. Dry, hand pulverization to different grain sizes, and wet, mechanical pulverization (micromilling) using four milling liquids (cyclohexane, isopropanol, ethanol, and water), and variable milling durations (up to 15 min) were evaluated. Micromilling with a light, nonpolar, highly evaporative liquid such as cyclohexane with a milling time of 5 min mitigated systematic errors such as microabsorption and preferred orientation as it produced finer and more uniform particle size distributions than the hand-pulverized powders, while simultaneously affording the least time for sample preparation. Conversely, the use of water as milling liquid resulted in extensive hydration reactions during sample preparation, causing mischaracterization and significant underestimation of its reactive brownmillerite content, which can complicate the remediation design process for COPR. Hand pulverization emerged as a necessary complement to quantify Cr(VI)-containing, softer minerals destroyed during mechanical milling, the quantification of which has also important implications for COPR treatment design. The findings of this study may be applicable in a variety of geochemically complicated and reactive environmental media (metal-contaminated soils, stabilized/solidified media, inorganic waste), and points to the importance of the sample preparation method to obtain reliable quantitative XRPD results.     

Use of a food web model to evaluate the factors responsible for high PCB fish concentrations in Lake Ellasjøen, a high Arctic Lake

Background, aim, and scope

Lake Ellasjøen, located in the Norwegian high arctic, contains the highest concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) ever recorded in fish and sediment from high arctic lakes, and concentrations are more than 10 times greater than in nearby Lake Øyangen. These elevated concentrations in Ellasjøen have been previously attributed, in part, to contaminant loadings from seabirds that use Ellasjøen, but not Øyangen, as a resting area. However, other factors, such as food web structure, organism growth rate, weight, lipid content, lake morphology, and nutrient inputs from the seabird guano, also differ between the two systems. The aim of this study is to evaluate the relative influence of these factors as explanatory variables for the higher PCB fish concentrations in Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen, using both a food web model and empirical data.

Methods

The model is based on previously developed models but parameterized for Lakes Ellasjøen and Øyangen using measured data wherever possible. The model was applied to five representative PCB congeners (PCB 105, 118, 138, 153, and 180) using measured sediment and water concentrations as input data and evaluated with previously collected food web data.

Results

Modeled concentrations are within a factor of two of measured concentrations in 60% and 40% of the cases in Lakes Ellasjøen and Øyangen, respectively, and within a factor of 10 in 100% of the cases in both lakes. In many cases, this is comparable to the variability associated with the data as well as the efficacy of the predictions of other food web model applications.

Discussion

We next used the model to quantify the relative importance of five major differences between Ellasjøen and Øyangen by replacing variables representing each of these factors in the Ellasjøen model with those from Øyangen, in separate simulations. The model predicts that the elevated PCB concentrations in Ellasjøen water and sediment account for 49%–58% of differences in modeled fish PCB concentrations between lakes. These elevated sediment and, to a lesser extent, water concentrations in Ellasjøen are due to PCB loadings from seabird guano. However, sediment–water fugacity ratios of PCBs are consistently greater in Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen, which suggests that internal lake processes also contribute to differences in sediment and water concentrations. We hypothesize that the nutrients associated with guano influence sediment–water fugacity ratios of PCBs by increasing the stock of pelagic algae. As both these algae and the guano settle, their organic carbon content is degraded faster than PCBs, which causes an extra magnification step in Ellasjøen before these detrital particles are consumed by benthic organisms, which are in turn consumed by fish. The model predicts that the remaining ～50% of the differences in PCB concentrations observed between the fish of these lakes are due to other subtle differences in their food web structures.

Conclusions

In conclusion, based on the results of a food web model, we found that the most dominant factors influencing the higher PCB fish concentrations in Lake Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen are the higher sediment and water concentrations in Ellasjøen, caused by seabird guano. Together, sediment and water are predicted to account for 49%–58% of differences in fish concentrations between lakes. Although seabird guano provides a source of nutrients to the lake, in addition to contaminants, empirical data and indirect model results suggest that nutrients are not leading to decreased bioaccumulation, in contrast to what has been observed in temperate, pelagic food webs.

Recommendations and perspectives

The results of this study emphasize the importance of considering even small differences in food web structure when comparing bioaccumulation in two lakes; although the food web structures of Ellasjøen and Øyangen differ only slightly, the model predicts that these differences account for most of the remaining ～50% of the differences in PCB fish concentrations between the two lakes. This study further demonstrates the utility of food web models as we were able to predict and tease apart the influence of various factors responsible for the elevated concentrations in the fish from Lake Ellasjøen, which would have been difficult using the field data alone.     

Relevance of crowding effects in a coastal National Park in Germany: results from a case study on Hamburger Hallig

Coastal environments are popular sites for tourism and faced with an increasing recreational demand. Most of European coastal areas attract numerous visitors annually. In recreation research this management problem can be described in terms of carrying capacity which expresses the ability of a site or region to absorb recreational use without deterioration of natural resources and the quality of the visitor experience. As social aspects of recreation in Europe still have received little attention, the purpose of this study is to examine the applicability of the concept of social carrying capacity in a German coastal national park. The article addresses if the relationship between perceived visitor encounters, crowding perception and visitor characteristics is applicable by using data from an on-site survey (N?=?509) of visitors conducted on Hamburger Hallig, Germany. It examines whether effects of overcrowding are measurable on a popular daytrip destination with established approaches. Results demonstrate that visitors to Hamburger Hallig are characterised by a heterogeneous visitor composition of local residents and domestic tourists with different motivations and who mainly visited the area for hiking or cycling. Study findings show that valuation for reported encounters and perceived crowding differed substantially among origin of visitors and sampling dates. All in all, respondents report a high level of encounter with others and in contrast a very low level of perceived crowding.     

Short- and long-term consequences of prenatal testosterone for immune function: an experimental study in the zebra finch

Hormone-mediated maternal effects play an important role in the formation of a differentiated phenotype. They have been shown to influence a wide array of offspring traits, both early in life and in adulthood. One important offspring trait that is under the influence of maternal androgens is the immune system. In birds, a growing number of studies show that yolk androgens modulate immune function during the chick stage. However, there is a lack of knowledge regarding long-term effects of prenatal androgens on offspring immunity. In this study, we therefore investigated the influence of prenatal testosterone (T) on several measures of immunity in fledgling and adult zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata). Cell-mediated immune response (towards phytohaemagglutinin, PHA) of fledglings hatching from control eggs was negatively related to brood size, whereas there was no such association for fledglings hatching from eggs with experimentally elevated T levels (T fledglings). Male control fledglings showed reduced mass gain compared to female control fledglings within 24 h after the PHA injection. This pattern was reversed in T fledglings. Total antibody levels in fledglings were not affected by egg treatment. Neither cell-mediated immunity nor total antibody levels in sexually mature zebra finches were influenced by egg treatment. However, there was an immuno-enhancing effect of elevated egg T on both primary and secondary humoral immune responses toward diphtheria and tetanus antigens in ca 5 and 7 month old zebra finches. In addition, the covariation between different immune components differed between T and control offspring, suggesting that egg treatment may have altered the potential trade-offs between different parts of the immune system. Our results suggest that prenatal androgens could be an important factor contributing to individual variation in immune function even in adulthood.