Effects of Climate and Land Cover on Hydrology in the Southeastern U.S.: Potential Impacts on Watershed Planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface‐depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.     

Calibrating a Basin‐Scale Groundwater Model to Remotely Sensed Estimates of Groundwater Evapotranspiration

Remotely sensed vegetation indices correspond to canopy vigor and cover and have been successfully used to estimate groundwater evapotranspiration (ET_g) over large spatial and temporal scales. However, these data do not provide information on depth to groundwater (dtgw) necessary for groundwater models (GWM) to calculate ET_g. An iterative approach is provided that calibrates GWM to ET_g derived from Landsat estimates of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The approach is applied to different vegetation groups in Mason Valley, Nevada over an 11‐year time span. An uncertainty analysis is done to estimate the resulting mean and 90% confidence intervals in ET_g to dtgw relationships to quantify errors associated with plant physiologic complexity, species variability, and parameter smoothing to the 100 m GWM‐grid, temporal variability in soil moisture and nonuniqueness in the solution. Additionally, a first‐order second moment analysis shows ET_g to dtgw relationships are almost exclusively sensitive to estimated land surface, or maximum, ET_g despite relatively large uncertainty in extinction depths and hydraulic conductivity. The EVI method of estimating ET_g appears to bias ET_g during years with exceptionally wet spring/summer conditions. Excluding these years improves model performance significantly but highlights the need to develop a methodology that accounts not only on quantity but timing of annual precipitation on phreatophyte greenness.     

Governing Quasi-Public Network Services for adaptation to climate change

Adaptation takes place in both private and public sectors, or as an interrelation between the two, and often under the realm of public regulation. Thispaper uses the Swedish and the Norwegian electricity grid sector, as providers of a vital public good under strict public regulation, to analyse reforms' effects on adaptive capacity in this area. The paper shows that transformational changes in both sectors during the 1990s shifted both the formal organisational structure (rules and regulations), as well as the organisational culture, in the direction of economic efficiency. These two dimensions individually reduced adaptive capacity to climate change, although differently in the two countries. However, the formal structure and organisational culture also yielded substantial influence on each other. This leads to the conclusion that when designing public regulations and implementing reforms, organisational culture must be considered in the design. Also the paper contests previous findings in the literature by showing that under given conditions there exist some substitution between the two dimensions in influencing adaptive capacity, implying that both dimensions should be included when analysing adaptation since analysing them in isolation is likely to lead to wrong conclusions.     

Spatiotemporal Associations of Reservoir Nutrient Characteristics and the Invasive,Harmful Alga Prymnesium parvum in West Texas

Golden alga (Prymnesium parvum) is a harmful alga that has caused ecological and economic harm in freshwater and marine systems worldwide. In inland systems of North America, toxic blooms have nearly eliminated fish populations in some systems. Modifying nutrient profiles through alterations to land or water use may be a viable alternative for golden alga control in reservoirs. The main objective of this study was to improve our understanding of the nutrient dynamics that influence golden alga bloom formation and toxicity in west Texas reservoirs. We examined eight sites in the Upper Colorado River basin, Texas: three impacted reservoirs that have experienced repeated golden alga blooms; two reference reservoirs where golden alga is present but nontoxic; and three confluence sites downstream of the impacted and reference sites. Total, inorganic, and organic nitrogen and phosphorus and their ratios were quantified monthly along with golden alga abundance and ichthyotoxicity between December 2010 and July 2011. Blooms persisted for several months at the impacted sites, which were characterized by high organic nitrogen and low inorganic nitrogen. At impacted sites, abundance was positively associated with inorganic phosphorus and bloom termination coincided with increases in inorganic nitrogen and decreases in inorganic phosphorus in late spring. Management of both inorganic and organic forms of nutrients may create conditions in reservoirs unfavorable to golden alga.     

Mating effort and space use of an alpine ungulate during the rut

In ungulates, the rut generally leads to increased intra and interpopulation movements for males. Because movements induce energetic costs and missed feeding opportunities, they could be an indication of male mating effort. We studied space use of 44 male mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) from three neighboring subpopulations in southeast Alaska, during the rut from 2005 to 2008. Using mixed models and an information theoretic approach with AIC, we analyzed the relationships between individual traits of males and their space use. We found no indication of breeding migration between subpopulations. Distances between individual seasonal ranges were not related to any individual trait. Daily movements, home range sizes, and total distance traveled during the rut did not vary with mass or age of individuals. As such, effects of individual traits on male space use during the rut appear weak and observed space use patterns do not support any of the main mating effort hypotheses.     

Nutritional geometry and macronutrient variation in the diets of gannets: the challenges in marine field studies

Foraging theory proposes that the nutritional driver of food choice and foraging in carnivores is energy gain. In contrast, recent laboratory experiments have shown that several species of carnivore select prey that provides a diet with a specific balance of macronutrients, rather than the highest energy content. It remains, however, to be determined how nutritionally variable the foods of predators in the wild are, and whether they feed selectively from available prey to balance their diet. Here, we used a geometric method named the right-angled mixture triangle (RMT) for examining nutritional variability in the prey and selected diets of a group of wild carnivores and marine top predators, the gannets (Morus spp.). A prey-level diet analysis was performed on Australasian gannets (M. serrator) from two New Zealand locations, and the macronutrient composition of their chosen prey species was measured. We use RMT to extend the comparison in the compositions of foods and diets from Australasian gannets from Australia as well as Northern gannets (M. bassanus) and Cape gannets (M. capensis). We found nutritional variability at multiple scales: intra- and interspecific variability in the pelagic fish and squid prey themselves; and intra- and interspecific variability in the diets consumed by geographically disparate populations of gannets. This nutritional variability potentially presents these predatory seabirds with both opportunity to select an optimal diet, and constraint if prevented from securing an optimal diet.     

Copulation duration,but not paternity share,potentially mediates inbreeding avoidance in Drosophila montana

Studying the incidence of inbreeding avoidance is important for understanding the evolution of mating systems, especially in the context of mate choice for genetic compatibility. We investigated whether inbreeding avoidance mechanisms have evolved in the malt fly, Drosophila montana, by measuring mating latency (a measure of male attractiveness), copulation duration, days to remating, offspring production, and the proportion of offspring sired by the first (P₁) and second (P₂) male to mate in full-sibling and unrelated pairs. SNP markers were used for paternity analysis and for calculating pairwise relatedness values (genotype sharing) between mating pairs. We found 18 % inbreeding depression in egg-to-adult viability, suggesting that mating with close relatives is costly. Copulation duration was shorter between previously mated females and their brothers than with unrelated males. Based on an earlier study, shorter copulation is likely to decrease the number of inbred progeny by decreasing female remating time. However, shorter copulations did not lead to lower paternity (P₂) of full-sibling males. Progeny production of double-mated females was lower when the second male was a full-sibling as compared to an unrelated male, but we could not distinguish between inbreeding depression and lower female reproductive effort after mating with a relative. Relatedness estimates based on 34 SNPs did not detect any quantitative effect of relatedness variation on copulation duration and progeny production. We suggest that inbreeding depression has been strong enough to select for inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in our Finnish D. montana population.     

Organic compounds in water extracts of coal: links to Balkan endemic nephropathy

The Pliocene lignite hypothesis is an environmental hypothesis that has been proposed to explain the etiology of Balkan endemic nephropathy (BEN). Aqueous leaching experiments were conducted on a variety of coal samples in order to simulate groundwater leaching of organic compounds, and to further test the role of the Pliocene lignite hypothesis in the etiology of BEN. Experiments were performed on lignite coal samples from endemic BEN areas in Romania and Serbia, and lignite and bituminous coals from nonendemic regions in Romania and the USA. Room temperature, hot water bath, and Soxhlet aqueous extraction experiments were conducted between 25 and 80 °C, and from 5 to 128 days in duration. A greater number of organic compounds and in higher concentrations were present in all three types of leaching experiments involving endemic area Pliocene lignite samples compared to all other coals examined. A BEN causing molecule or molecules may be among phenols, PAHs, benzenes, and/or lignin degradation compounds. The proposed transport pathway of the Pliocene lignite hypothesis for organic compound exposure from endemic area Pliocene lignite coals to well and spring drinking water, is likely. Aromatic compounds leached by groundwater from Pliocene lignite deposits in the vicinity of endemic BEN areas may play a role in the etiology of the disease. A better understanding of organic compounds leached by groundwater from Pliocene lignite deposits may potentially lead to the identification and implementation of effective strategies for the prevention of exposure to the causative agent(s) for BEN, and in turn, prevention of the disease.     

Numerical modelling of horizontal sediment-laden jets

Sediment-laden turbulent flows are commonly encountered in natural and engineered environments. It is well known that turbulence generates fluctuations to the particle motion, resulting in modulation of the particle settling velocity. A novel stochastic particle tracking model is developed to predict the particle settling out and deposition from a sediment-laden jet. Particle velocity fluctuations in the jet flow are modelled from a Lagrangian velocity autocorrelation function that incorporates the physical mechanism leading to a reduction of settling velocity. The model is first applied to study the settling velocity modulation in a homogeneous turbulence field. Consistent with basic experiments using grid-generated turbulence and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations, the model predicts that the apparent settling velocity can be reduced by as much as 30 % of the stillwater settling velocity. Using analytical solution for the jet mean flow and semi-empirical RMS turbulent velocity fluctuation and dissipation rate profiles derived from CFD predictions, model predictions of the sediment deposition and cross-sectional concentration profiles of horizontal sediment-laden jets are in excellent agreement with data. Unlike CFD calculations of sediment fall out and deposition from a jet flow, the present method does not require any a priori adjustment of particle settling velocity.