Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.     

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS.     

A uniform fish consumption advisory protocol for the Ohio River

ORSANCO and the six Ohio River main stem states have been working to align states' fish consumption advisories (FCAs) to enhance the value of advice issued to the public. To achieve this goal, ORSANCO worked closely with a panel consisting of state and USEPA representatives. The result of this effort is the Ohio River Fish Consumption Advisory Protocol (ORFCAP). The ORFCAP represents a single set of variables agreed upon by the panel that allows for a standardized protocol to create advisory thresholds to which states can defer to issue consumption advice for the Ohio River. The ORFCAP identifies ORSANCO as a clearinghouse for data which will be distributed to the panel for decision making. Other components include identifying primary contaminants of concern (PCBs and mercury) and dividing the river into four reporting units. The protocol was developed to issue FCAs for the protection of sensitive populations using five advisory groupings for PCBs and four for mercury. Specific variables used in the calculation of advisory thresholds such as health protection values, cooking reductions, average meal sizes, etc., were selected by the panel. Lastly, the protocol calls for FCA decisions to be based on analysis of the most recent 10?years of data for each species in each reporting unit to determine size class needs and advisory groupings. Upon pending implementation of the protocol by the main stem states, these decisions will be made annually through a series of discussions involving ORSANCO, the panel, and other appropriate state personnel.     

Provenance, life span, and phylogeny do not affect grass species' responses to nitrogen and phosphorus

Successful conservation management requires an understanding of how species respond to intervention. Native and exotic species may respond differently to management interventions due to differences arising directly from their origin (i.e., provenance) or indirectly due to biased representations of different life history types (e.g., annual vs. perennial life span) or phylogenetic lineages among provenance (i.e., native or exotic origin) groups. Thus, selection of a successful management regime requires knowledge of the life history and provenance-bias in the local flora and an understanding of the interplay between species characteristics across existing environmental gradients in the landscape. Here we tested whether provenance, phylogeny, and life span interact to determine species distributions along natural gradients of soil chemistry (e.g., soil nitrogen and phosphorus) in 10 upland prairie sites along a 600-km latitudinal transect running from southern Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada, to the Willamette Valley in Oregon, USA. We found that soil nitrate, phosphorus, and pH exerted strong control over community composition. However, species distributions along environmental gradients were unrelated to provenance, life span, or phylogenetic groupings. We then used a greenhouse experiment to more precisely measure the response of common grass species to nitrogen and phosphorus supply. As with the field data, species responses to nutrient additions did not vary as a function of provenance, life span, or phylogeny. Native and exotic species differed strongly in the relationship between greenhouse-measured tolerance of low nutrients and field abundance. Native species with the greatest ability to maintain biomass production at low nutrient supply rates were most abundant in field surveys, as predicted by resource competition theory. In contrast, there was no relationship between exotic-species biomass at low nutrient levels and field abundance. The implications of these findings for management of invasive species are substantial in that they overturn a general belief that reduction of nutrient supplies favors native species. The idiosyncratic nature of species response to nutrients in this study suggests that manipulation of nutrient supplies is unlikely to alter the overall balance between native and exotic species, although it may well be useful to control specific exotic species.     

Severity models of cross-median and rollover crashes on rural divided highways in Pennsylvania

Introduction

Crossover and rollover crashes in earth-divided, traversable medians on rural divided highways can lead to severe injury outcomes. This study estimated severity models of these two crash types. Vehicle, driver, roadway, and median cross-section design data were factors considered in the models. A unique aspect of the data used to estimate the models were the availability of median cross-slope data, which are not commonly included in roadway inventory data files.

Methods

A binary logit model of cross-median crash severity and a multinomial logit model of rollover crash severity were estimated using five years of data from rural divided highways in Pennsylvania.

Results

The highest probability of a fatal or major injury in cross-median and rollover crashes was found to occur in cases when a driver was not wearing a seatbelt. While flatter cross-slopes and narrower medians were associated with more severe cross-median crash outcomes, steeper cross-slopes and narrower medians significantly increased rollover crash severity outcomes. The presence of horizontal curves was associated with increased probabilities of high-severity outcomes in a median rollover crash.

Impact on Industry

Modeling results in this study confirmed that cross-median and median rollover crash severity outcomes are associated with median cross-section design characteristics. Based on the estimated models, it appears that flatter and narrower medians lead to more severe injury outcomes in cross-median crashes. Steeper median cross-slopes and narrower medians were associated with higher probabilities of more severe outcomes in median rollover crashes. The results presented in this study suggest that there is a trade-off between median cross-section design and cross-median and rollover crashes in earth-divided, traversable medians on rural divided highways. While the severity models can be included in a framework to develop design guidance in relation to this trade-off, models of crash frequency should also be considered.     

Overview of motorcycling in the United States: a national telephone survey

Objectives

Motorcycle registrations have risen in recent years. Although motorcyclist crash fatalities in 2009 were 16% lower than in 2008, they were double the number of deaths in 1997. The present study examined current motorcyclists’ travel patterns and views of motorcycle helmets and other safety topics.

Methods

Motorcycle drivers were interviewed in a national telephone survey conducted in 2009. A weighted sample of 1,606 motorcyclists resulted from adjusting for the oversampling of those younger than 40 and those in the three states without a motorcycle helmet use law (Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire). All analyses were based on the weighted sample, which was intended to result in a nationally representative sample of motorcyclists.

Results

About one-quarter of respondents said they did not always wear helmets. Of these respondents, 57% said a law requiring helmet use would persuade them to do so, and 27% said nothing would. Ninety-four percent of respondents in states with universal helmet laws said they always ride helmeted, compared with about half of respondents in other states. About half of all respondents favored these laws. About three-quarters said they believe helmets keep riders safer, including two-thirds of respondents who oppose universal laws and almost half of drivers who rarely/never wear helmets. Drivers ages 18–29 and drivers of sport/unclad sport, sport touring, and super sport motorcycles were more likely to always wear helmets, support universal helmet laws, and believe helmets keep riders safer. About half of respondents said antilock braking systems (ABS) enhance safety and that they would get ABS on their next motorcycle. Less than one-quarter thought an airbag would protect a motorcyclist in a crash, and even fewer would consider getting one on their next motorcycle. Forty-three percent of motorcyclists said they had crashed at least once; 62% of the most recent crashes involved no vehicles besides the motorcycle. Respondents reported riding their motorcycles about 5,400 miles, on average, during the past year. Drivers ages 18–29 reported riding fewer miles, on average, than older drivers and more often rode at night and to/from work or school. Drivers of touring and sport touring motorcycles traveled more miles and took more long trips.

Conclusions

Motorcyclists’ travel patterns and views vary widely, but there are distinct patterns by driver age and motorcycle type. Drivers who believe helmets keep riders safer are more likely to always wear them, but this belief appears insufficient to motivate some drivers to wear them. However, universal helmet laws appear effective in increasing helmet use. Many drivers are receptive to purchasing ABS on their next motorcycle.

Impact on industry

States should be encouraged to enact universal helmet laws, and motorcycle manufacturers should be encouraged to offer ABS.     

Electrokinetic ion transport through unsaturated soil: 1. Theory, model development, and testing

An electromigration transport model for non-reactive ion transport in unsaturated soil was developed and tested against laboratory experiments. This model assumed the electric potential field was constant with respect to time, an assumption valid for highly buffered soil, or when the electrode electrolysis reactions are neutralized. The model also assumed constant moisture contents and temperature with respect to time, and that electroosmotic and hydraulic transport of water through the soil was negligible. A functional relationship between ionic mobility and the electrolyte concentration was estimated using the chemical activity coefficient. Tortuosity was calculated from a mathematical relationship fitted to the electrical conductivity of the bulk pore water and soil moisture data. The functional relationship between ionic mobility, pore-water concentration, and tortuosity as a function of moisture content allowed the model to predict ion transport in heterogeneous unsaturated soils. The model was tested against laboratory measurements assessing anionic electromigration as a function of moisture content. In the test cell, a strip of soil was spiked with red dye No 40 and monitored for a 24-h period while a 10-mA current was maintained between the electrodes. Electromigration velocities predicted by the electromigration transport model were in agreement with laboratory experimental results. Both laboratory-measured and model-predicted dye migration results indicated a maximum transport velocity at moisture contents less than saturation due to competing effects between current density and tortuosity as moisture content decreases.     

Electronic waste pollution and the COVID-19 pandemic

Environmental Chemistry Letters -     

Non-thermal plasmas for disease control and abiotic stress management in plants

Environmental Chemistry Letters - Climate change is predicted to cause severe loss in agricultural production by increasing disease epidemics and intensifying abiotic stresses. Therefore,...     

错流式膜-生物反应器处理生活污水及其生物学研究

用错流式膜－生物反应器（ＣｒｏｓｆｌｏｗＭｅｍｂｒａｎｅＢｉｏＲｅａｃｔｏｒ简称ＣＭＢＲ）进行处理生活污水试验并研究其生物动力学参数．结果表明：当ＨＲＴ为５ｈ,ＳＲＴ为１５ｄ,膜面流速为４ｍ／ｓ,膜通量为７５、１５０Ｌ／（ｍ２·ｈ）时,ＣＭＢＲ处理生活污水试验的去除率为：ＣＯＤ＞９７％、ＮＨ３－Ｎ＞９７％、浊度≥９８％;对ＳＳ和总Ｅ．ｃｏｌｉ则达到１００％,出水水质优于建设部生活杂用水回用标准ＣＪ２５．１－８９．生物相分析表明,污泥中没有原、后生动物,只有菌胶团．推导了ＣＭＢＲ稳态运行时的生物浓度计算公式,进而求得表观产率因数Ｙｇ为０．６５,衰减常数Ｋｄ为０．１ｄ－１．