Polimetrics: the quantitative study of urban systems (and its applications to atmospheric and hydro environments)

The rapid urbanization of the Earth has led to highly populated cities that act as concentrated centers of anthropogenic stressors on the environment. Much of these stressors originate from nonlinear coupling between man-made urban elements (i.e., networks of engineering and socio-economic infrastructures) and the natural environment. An urban area can be treated as a system of urban elements (or elemental systems), and simple interactions between the latter may lead to complex outcomes, known as emergent properties, in the former. Emergent properties of urban systems play an important role in determining their resilience and sustainability, studies on which require an in-depth knowledge of dynamics, interdependencies and feedbacks of urban elements as well as development of quantitative holistic models to integrate such knowledge to predict the overall system response. To facilitate this demanding effort, it is proposed to initiate a new sub-discipline within the discipline of Earth System Engineering, with the portmanteau of Polimetrics, to deal with quantitative scientific aspects of urban systems. This paper discusses two examples of polimetrics related to urban fluid flows. The first deals with the urban heat island and the other with storm surges in coastal cities.     

Special issue on contamination,remediation and health for pollutants in natural aquatic,soil, sediments and atmospheric environments

Environmental Geochemistry and Health -     

Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTI_SD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTI_SD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTI_SD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.     

Impacts of rural to urban migration,urbanization, and generational change on consumption of wild animals in the Amazon

For the first time in history, more people live in urban areas than in rural areas. This trend is likely to continue, driven largely by rural-to-urban migration. We investigated how rural-to-urban migration, urbanization, and generational change affect the consumption of wild animals. We used chelonian (tortoises and freshwater turtles), one of the most hunted taxa in the Amazon, as a model. We surveyed 1356 households and 2776 school children across 10 urban areas of the Brazilian Amazon (6 small towns, 3 large towns, and Manaus, the largest city in the Amazon Basin) with a randomized response technique and anonymous questionnaires. Urban demand for wild meat (i.e., meat from wild animals) was alarmingly high. Approximately 1.7 million turtles and tortoises were consumed in urban areas of Amazonas during 2018. Consumption rates declined as size of the urban area increased and were greater for adults than children. Furthermore, the longer rural-to-urban migrants lived in urban areas, the lower their consumption rates. These results suggest that wild meat consumption is a rural-related tradition that decreases as urbanization increases and over time after people move to urban areas. However, it is unclear whether the observed decline will be fast enough to conserve hunted species, or whether children's consumption rate will remain the same as they become adults. Thus, conservation actions in urban areas are still needed. Current conservation efforts in the Amazon do not address urban demand for wildlife and may be insufficient to ensure the survival of traded species in the face of urbanization and human population growth. Our results suggest that conservation interventions must target the urban demand for wildlife, especially by focusing on young people and recent rural to urban migrants. Article impact statement: Amazon urbanite consumption of wildlife is high but decreases with urbanization, over time for rural to urban migrants, and between generations. Impactos de la Migración del Campo a la Ciudad, la Urbanización y del Cambio Generacional sobre el Consumo de Animales Silvestres en el Amazonas     

Alarming decline of freshwater trigger species in western Mediterranean key biodiversity areas

Theidentification of key biodiversity areas (KBA) was initiated by the International Union for Conservation of Nature in 2004 to overcome taxonomic biases in the selection of important areas for conservation, including freshwater ecosystems. Since then, several KBAs have been identified mainly based on the presence of trigger species (i.e., species that trigger either the vulnerability and or the irreplaceability criterion and thus identify a site as a KBA). However, to our knowledge, many of these KBAs have not been validated. Therefore, classical surveys of the taxa used to identify freshwater KBAs (fishes, molluscs, odonates, and aquatic plants) were conducted in Douro (Iberian Peninsula) and Sebou (Morocco) River basins in the Mediterranean Biodiversity Hotspot. Environmental DNA analyses were undertaken in the Moroccan KBAs. There was a mismatch between the supposed and actual presence of trigger species. None of the trigger species were found in 43% and 50% of all KBAs surveyed in the Douro and Sebou basins, respectively. Shortcomings of freshwater KBA identification relate to flawed or lack of distribution data for trigger species. This situation results from a misleading initial identification of KBAs based on poor (or even inaccurate) ecological information or due to increased human disturbance between initial KBA identification and the present. To improve identification of future freshwater KBAs, we suggest selecting trigger species with a more conservative approach; use of local expert knowledge and digital data (to assess habitat quality, species distribution, and potential threats); consideration of the subcatchment when delineating KBAs boundaries; thoughtful consideration of terrestrial special areas for conservation limits; and periodic field validation.     

Phenological sequences reveal aggregate life history response to climatic warming

Climatic warming is associated with organisms breeding earlier in the season than is typical for their species. In some species, however, response to warming is more complex than a simple advance in the timing of all life history events preceding reproduction. Disparities in the extent to which different components of the reproductive phenology of organisms vary with climatic warming indicate that not all life history events are equally responsive to environmental variation. Here, we propose that our understanding of phenological response to climate change can be improved by considering entire sequences of events comprising the aggregate life histories of organisms preceding reproduction. We present results of a two-year warming experiment conducted on 33 individuals of three plant species inhabiting a low-arctic site. Analysis of phenological sequences of three key events for each species revealed how the aggregate life histories preceding reproduction responded to warming, and which individual events exerted the greatest influence on aggregate life history variation. For alpine chickweed (Cerastium alpinum), warming elicited a shortening of the duration of the emergence stage by 2.5 days on average, but the aggregate life history did not differ between warmed and ambient plots. For gray willow (Salix glauca), however, all phenological events monitored occurred earlier on warmed than on ambient plots, and warming reduced the aggregate life history of this species by 22 days on average. Similarly, in dwarf birch (Betula nana), warming advanced flower bud set, blooming, and fruit set and reduced the aggregate life history by 27 days on average. Our approach provides important insight into life history responses of many organisms to climate change and other forms of environmental variation. Such insight may be compromised by considering changes in individual phenological events in isolation.     

Nitrogen limitation of net primary productivity in terrestrial ecosystems is globally distributed

Our meta-analysis of 126 nitrogen addition experiments evaluated nitrogen (N) limitation of net primary production (NPP) in terrestrial ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that N limitation is widespread among biomes and influenced by geography and climate. We used the response ratio (R approximately equal ANPP(N)/ANPP(ctrl)) of aboveground plant growth in fertilized to control plots and found that most ecosystems are nitrogen limited with an average 29% growth response to nitrogen (i.e., R = 1.29). The response ratio was significant within temperate forests (R = 1.19), tropical forests (R = 1.60), temperate grasslands (R = 1.53), tropical grasslands (R = 1.26), wetlands (R = 1.16), and tundra (R = 1.35), but not deserts. Eight tropical forest studies had been conducted on very young volcanic soils in Hawaii, and this subgroup was strongly N limited (R = 2.13), which resulted in a negative correlation between forest R and latitude. The degree of N limitation in the remainder of the tropical forest studies (R = 1.20) was comparable to that of temperate forests, and when the young Hawaiian subgroup was excluded, forest R did not vary with latitude. Grassland response increased with latitude, but was independent of temperature and precipitation. These results suggest that the global N and C cycles interact strongly and that geography can mediate ecosystem response to N within certain biome types.     

Landscape constraints on functional diversity of birds and insects in tropical agroecosystems

In this paper, we analyzeatabases on birds and insects to assess patterns of functional diversity in human-dominated landscapes in the tropics. A perspective from developed landscapes is essential for understanding remnant natural ecosystems, because most species experience their surroundings at spatial scales beyond the plot level, and spillover between natural and managed ecosystems is common. Agricultural bird species have greater habitat and diet breadth than forest species. Based on a global data base, bird assemblages in tropical agroforest ecosystems were composed of disproportionately more frugivorous and nectarivorous, but fewer insectivorous bird species compared with forest. Similarly, insect predators of plant-feeding arthropods were more diverse in Ecuadorian agroforest and forest compared with rice and pasture, while, in Indonesia, bee diversity was also higher in forested habitats. Hence, diversity of insectivorous birds and insect predators as well as bee pollinators declined with agricultural transformation. In contrast, with increasing agricultural intensification, avian pollinators and seed dispersers initially increase then decrease in proportion. It is well established that the proximity of agricultural habitats to forests has a strong influence on the functional diversity of agroecosystems. Community similarity is higher among agricultural systems than in natural habitats and higher in simple than in complex landscapes for both birds and insects, so natural communities, low-intensity agriculture, and heterogeneous landscapes appear to be critical in the preservation of beta diversity. We require a better understanding of the relative role of landscape composition and the spatial configuration of landscape elements in affecting spillover of functionally important species across managed and natural habitats. This is important for data-based management of tropical human-dominated landscapes sustaining the capacity of communities to reorganize after disturbance and to ensure ecological functioning.     

Continuous-time correlated random walk model for animal telemetry data

We propose a continuous-time version of the correlated random walk model for animal telemetry data. The continuous-time formulation allows data that have been nonuniformly collected over time to be modeled without subsampling, interpolation, or aggregation to obtain a set of locations uniformly spaced in time. The model is derived from a continuous-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck velocity process that is integrated to form a location process. The continuous-time model was placed into a state-space framework to allow parameter estimation and location predictions from observed animal locations. Two previously unpublished marine mammal telemetry data sets were analyzed to illustrate use of the model, by-products available from the analysis, and different modifications which are possible. A harbor seal data set was analyzed with a model that incorporates the proportion of each hour spent on land. Also, a northern fur seal pup data set was analyzed with a random drift component to account for directed travel and ocean currents.