A performance evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the summer of 2007

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) that supported, in part, its transition into operational status. This evaluation focuses primarily on discrete forecasts for the maximum 8-h O₃ concentrations covering the 4-month period, June through September, 2007, using measurements obtained from EPA's AIRNow network. Results indicate that the 2007 NAQFC performed as well or better than previous configurations, despite the expansion of the forecast domain into the western half of the nation that is dominated by complex terrain. The mean, domain-wide, season-long correlation was 0.70. When examined over time, the domain-wide correlations exhibit a fairly consistent nature, with values exceeding 0.60 (0.70) over 90% (55%) of the days. The NAQFC systematically over-predicted the 8-h O₃ concentrations, continuing a trend established by earlier NAQFC configurations, though to a lesser degree. The summer-long mean forecast value of 53.2 ppb was 4.2 ppb higher than the observed value, resulting in a domain-wide Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) of 8.7%. Most of the over-prediction is associated with observed concentrations less than 50 ppb. In fact the model tends to under-predict when concentrations exceed 70 ppb. As with the bias, the error associated with the latest configuration was also lower. The summer-long Root Mean Square Error of 13.0 ppb (Normalized Mean Error (NME) = 20.4%) represented marked improvements over earlier forecasts. Examination of the spatial distribution of both the NMB and NME reveals that the NAQFC was generally within 25% for the NME and 25% for the NMB over a majority of the domain. Several areas of poorer performance, where the NMB and NME often exceed 25% and in some cases 50%, were noted. These areas include southern California, where the NAQFC tended to under-predict concentrations (especially on weekends) and the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts regions, where the model over-predicted. Subsequent analysis revealed that the incorrect temporal allocation of precursor emissions was likely the source of the under-prediction in southern California, while inaccurate simulation of PBL heights likely contributed to the over-prediction in the coastal regions.     

Economic sustainability and the preservation of environmental assets

The core requirement of sustainability is that current economic activities should not result in an excessive burden on future generations. This criterion is general enough to imply different decision rules for the preservation of environmental assets. Neoclassical economics does not have a sustainability criterion for environmental assets independent of the intertemporal efficiency criterion, which allocates environmental and man-made capital based on projected monetary benefits and costs. This criterion is examined in terms of the feasibility of valuing the benefits of environmental assets, the substitution possibilities between natural and man-made capital, and the ethical grounds for using efficiency as the sole determinant of the allocation of environmental assets. An alternative ecological sustainability criterion is the preservation of safe minimum levels of environmental assets in physical terms rather than the dollar value of a composite of natural and man-made capital. Safe minimum standards for environmental assets constrain the efficiency criterion in order to ensure the sustainability of economic systems. It is argued that the ecological approach to sustainability should limit the economic approach for decisions involving the allocation of environmental assets.     

ATFITUDES TOWARDS ARTIFICIAL WETLANDS IN ONTARIO FOR STORMWATER CONTROL AND WATERFOWL HABITAT1

ABSTRACT: The objective was to survey individuals from different interest groups in Ontario to ascertain attitudes towards the use of artificial wetlands for stormwater management and to provide waterfowl habitat. In total, 166 questionnaires were distributed and 124 cempleted returns were received. The results of the survey show that the provision of wetlands as waterfowl habitats in the context of stormwater impoundments is severely limited and is not considered an important management option. The overwhelming rejection of this integrated approach seems to be due to a lack of understanding and its comparative newness. Some of the perceived problems and concerns could be addressed by improvements in the design of the artificial wetlands. The design and implementation of an artificial wetland prototype as part of an education program in Ontario is recommended. A few research opportunities also are outlined.     

Woody plant roots fail to penetrate a clay-lined landfill: Managment implications

In many locations, regulatory agencies do not permit tree planting above landfills that are sealed with a capping clay, because roots might penetrate the clay barrier and expose landfill contents to leaching. We find, however, no empirical or theoretical basis for this restriction, and instead hypothesize that plant roots of any kind are incapable of penetrating the dense clays used to seal landfills. As a test, we excavated 30 trees and shrubs, of 12 species, growing over a clay-lined municipal sanitary landfill on Staten Island, New York. The landfill had been closed for seven years, and featured a very shallow (10 to 30-cm) soil layer over a 45-cm layer of compacted grey marl (Woodbury series) clay. The test plants had invaded naturally from nearby forests. All plants examined—including trees as tall as 6 m—had extremely shallow root plates, with deformed tap roots that grew entirely above and parallel to the clay layer. Only occasional stubby feeder roots were found in the top 1 cm of clay, and in clay cracks at depths to 6 cm, indicating that the primary impediment to root growth was physical, although both clay and the overlying soil were highly acidic. These results, if confirmed by experimental research should lead to increased options for the end use of many closed sanitary landfills.     

Kinetics and mechanism of oxidation of tetrachloroethylene with permanganate

The kinetics, reaction pathways and product distribution of oxidation of tetrachloroethylene (PCE) by potassium permanganate (KMnO4) were studied in phosphate-buffered solutions under constant pH, isothermal, completely mixed and zero headspace conditions. Experimental results indicate that the reaction is first-order with respect to both PCE and KMnO4 and has an activation energy of 9.3+/-0.9 kcal/mol. The second-order rate constant at 20 degrees C is 0.035+/-0.004 M(-1) s(-1), and is independent of pH and ionic strength (I) over a range of pH 3-10 and I approximately 0-0.2 M, respectively. The PCE-KMnO4 reaction may proceed through further oxidation and/or hydrolysis reaction pathways, greatly influenced by the acidity of the solution, to yield CO2(g), oxalic acid, formic acid and glycolic acid. Under acidic conditions (e.g., pH 3), the further oxidation pathway will dominate and PCE tends to be directly mineralized into CO2 and chloride. Under neutral (e.g., pH 7) and alkaline conditions (e.g., pH 10), the hydroxylation pathway dominates the reaction and PCE is primarily transformed into oxalic acid prior to complete PCE mineralization. Moreover, all chlorine atoms in PCE are rapidly liberated during the reaction and the rate of chloride production is very close to the rate of PCE degradation.     

ADAPTATION TO ARIDITY: WATER DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA1

ABSTRACT The Republic of South Africa, legatee of a three-century history of recurring drought, is firmly committed to a program of the optimum use of its water for the national benefit. Its water law encourages centralized planning in that water is held to be the property of the state and is assignable without requiring acquiescence by the basin or province of origin. Interbasin diversions from the Tugela River to the Vaal River Basin, from the Orange River to the Fish and Sundays River Basins, and from several basins to Cape Town are under construction as are facilities for water importation from Lesotho and Angola. For satisfaction of demands beyond the year 2000 the nation may depend increasingly on a shift of its power production and water-using industry from the coal fields of the central plateau to nuclear power development with associated desalination along its coasts. Alternatively, and preferably, it may cooperate in a co-prosperity bloc in Southern Africa aiding the economies of its neighbors by development for mutual advantage of the water and power resources of the Okavango and other northern rivers.     

Relating net nitrogen input in the Mississippi River basin to nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River: a comparison of approaches

A quantitative understanding of the relationship between terrestrial N inputs and riverine N flux can help guide conservation, policy, and adaptive management efforts aimed at preserving or restoring water quality. The objective of this study was to compare recently published approaches for relating terrestrial N inputs to the Mississippi River basin (MRB) with measured nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River. Nitrogen inputs to and outputs from the MRB (1951 to 1996) were estimated from state-level annual agricultural production statistics and NOy (inorganic oxides of N) deposition estimates for 20 states that comprise 90% of the MRB. A model with water yield and gross N inputs accounted for 85% of the variation in observed annual nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River, from 1960 to 1998, but tended to underestimate high nitrate flux and overestimate low nitrate flux. A model that used water yield and net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (NANI) accounted for 95% of the variation in riverine N flux. The NANI approach accounted for N harvested in crops and assumed that crop harvest in excess of the nutritional needs of the humans and livestock in the basin would be exported from the basin. The U.S. White House Committee on Natural Resources and Environment (CENR) developed a more comprehensive N budget that included estimates of ammonia volatilization, denitrification, and exchanges with soil organic matter. The residual N in the CENR budget was weakly and negatively correlated with observed riverine nitrate flux. The CENR estimates of soil N mineralization and immobilization suggested that there were large (2000 kg N ha-1) net losses of soil organic N between 1951 and 1996. When the CENR N budget was modified by assuming that soil organic N levels have been relatively constant after 1950, and ammonia volatilization losses are redeposited within the basin, the trend of residual N closely matched temporal variation in NANI and was positively correlated with riverine nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River. Based on results from applying these three modeling approaches, we conclude that although the NANI approach does not address several processes that influence the N cycle, it appears to focus on the terms that can be estimated with reasonable certainty and that are correlated with riverine N flux.     

Production of radioactive particles for use in environmental studies

This paper presents an aerosol generation technique developed to produce dry aerosol particles of various sizes from aqueous solutions of salt. The technique was tested with sodium chloride, lithium carbonate and uranyl acetate at various aqueous concentrations which produced particles in the size range of 0.13-1.37 microm Mass Median Diameter (MMD). The generated aerosols were acceptably monodisperse with a geometric standard deviation of 1.4-2. Both MMD and Mass Median Aerodynamic Diameter (MMAD) increased significantly (p<0.001) with increased concentration of the salt in solution. The technique can also be used to generate aerosols of different chemical species. The results obtained indicate that the system is convenient for use with various aerosol-forming materials, with a stable particle size distribution being maintained for a long period of steady operation. The technique was successfully applied in wind tunnel studies to simulate the release of submicron radioactive particles and their interception by crops, grass and tree canopies. The relevance and application of the technique in other areas of environmental assessment studies is discussed.