Comparing universal kriging and land-use regression for predicting concentrations of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.     

Improving the layout of recycling centres by use of lean production principles

There has been increased focus on recycling in Sweden during recent years. This focus can be attributed to external environmental factors such as tougher legislation, but also to the potential gains for raw materials suppliers. Recycling centres are important components in the Swedish total recycling system. Recycling centres are manned facilities for waste collection where visitors can bring, sort and discard worn products as well as large-sized, hazardous, and electrical waste. The aim of this paper was to identify and describe the main flows and layout types at Swedish recycling centres. The aim was also to adapt and apply production theory for designing and managing recycling centre operations. More specifically, this means using lean production principles to help develop guidelines for recycling centre design and efficient control.Empirical data for this research was primarily collected through interviews and questionnaires among both visitors and employees at 16 Swedish recycling centres. Furthermore, adapted observation protocols have been used in order to explore visitor activities. There was also close collaboration with a local recycling centre company, which shared their layout experiences with the researchers in this project.The recycling centres studied had a variety of problems such as queues of visitors, overloading of material and improper sorting. The study shows that in order to decrease the problems, the recycling centres should be designed and managed according to lean production principles, i.e. through choosing more suitable layout choices with visible and linear flows, providing better visitor information, and providing suitable technical equipment. Improvements can be achieved through proper planning of the layout and control of the flow of vehicles, with the result of increased efficiency and capacity, shorter visits, and cleaner waste fractions. The benefits of a lean production mindset include increased visitor capacity, waste flexibility, improved sorting quality, shorter time for visits and improved working conditions.     

Transnational environmental collective action facing implementation constraints – the case of nutrient leakage in the Baltic Sea Action Plan

While scholars have showed a long-standing interest for how to design effective environmental treaties and other international agreements, less interest has been paid to implementation phases of these agreements. This article takes the Eutrophication Segment in the Baltic Sea Action Plan as an example of a regional effort to reduce nutrient leakages, where national reporting of adopted strategies has been a key mechanism to improve implementation effectiveness. It is shown that although transnational collective action theory is a powerful tool to analyse underlying drivers and priorities in state implementation policies, a deeper analysis of domestic and external constraints can shed additional light on observed implementation gaps. Varying views among countries on, for example, the role of stakeholder participation, legitimacy and top-down governing versus multi-stakeholder governance approaches may comprise domestic constraints that make effective and efficient implementation problematic. In terms of external constraints, states’ balancing of action plan objectives versus other international commitments, such as other environmental treaties and EU Directives, is shown to potentially reduce implementation efficiency as well.     

How to Constrain Multi‐Objective Calibrations of the SWAT Model Using Water Balance Components

Accurate discharge simulation is one of the most common objectives of hydrological modeling studies. However, a good simulation of discharge is not necessarily the result of a realistic simulation of hydrological processes within the catchment. We propose an evaluation framework that considers both discharge and water balance components as evaluation criteria for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this study, we integrated average annual values of surface runoff, groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration in the model evaluation procedure to constrain the selection of good model runs for the Little River Experimental Watershed in Georgia, United States. For evaluating water balance and discharge dynamics, the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS) were used. In addition, the ratio of root mean square error and standard deviation of measured data (RSR) was calculated for individual segments of the flow duration curve to identify the best model runs in terms of discharge magnitude. Our results indicate that good statistics for discharge do not guarantee realistic simulations of individual water balance components. Therefore, we recommend constraining the ranges of water balance components to achieve a more realistic simulation of the entire hydrological system, even if tradeoffs between good statistics for discharge simulations and reasonable amounts of the water balance components are unavoidable. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Establishment of a constructed wetland in extreme dryland

Background, aim, and scope

The project was set to construct an extensive wetland in the southernmost region of Israel at Kibbutz Neot Smadar (30°02′45″ N and 35°01′19″ E). The results of the first period of monitoring, summary, and perspectives are presented. The constructed wetland (CW) was built and the subsequent monitoring performed in the framework of the Southern Arava Sustainable Waste Management Plan, funded by the EU LIFE Fund. The specific aims were: (1) To end current sewage disposal and pollution of the ground, the aquifer, and the dry river bed (wadi) paths by biologically treating the sewage as part of the creation of a sustainable wetland ecosystem. (2) Serve as an example of CW in the Negev highlands and the Arava Valley climates for neighboring communities and as a test ground for plants and building methods appropriate to hyper arid climate. (3) Serve as an educational resource and tourist attraction for groups to learn about water reuse, recycling, local wildlife and migrating birds, including serving the heart of a planned Ecological–Educational Bird Park. This report is intended to allow others who are planning similar systems in hyper arid climates to learn from our experience.

Materials and methods

The project is located in an extreme arid desert with less than 40 mm of rain annually and temperature ranges of ?5°C to +42°C. The site receives 165–185 m³ of municipal and agricultural wastes daily, including cowshed and goat wastes and winery outflow.

Results

The CW establishment at Neot Smadar was completed in October 2006. For 8 months, clean water flowed through the system while the plants were taking root. In June 2007, the wetland was connected to the oxidation pond and full operation began. Because of seepage and evaporation, during the first several months, the water level was not high enough to allow free flow from one bed to the next. To bed A, the water was pumped periodically from the oxidation pond (Fig. 1) and from there flowed by gravitation through the rest of the system. The initial results of the monitoring are promising. In nearly all measurements, the system succeeded as expected to reduce levels of contaminants at least to the level acceptable for irrigating fruit trees and often to the level of unlimited irrigation. The introduction of the plants in the system and their physiological performance were evaluated and were found to correlate well to the quality of water in the various beds.

Discussion

It should be said at the outset that evaluation of the performance of a CW system is a long-term process. Thus, the main aim of this report is to present the problems, difficulties, preliminary results, and concepts concerned with the first stage of establishment of CW in an extremely dry region.

Conclusions

The CW system was designed to dispose of municipal and agricultural wastes in a way that not merely reduces pollution, but adds to environmental quality by creating accessible parkland for local residents and tourists. Several factors affected the performance of the system at the initial stages of operation: ecological balance between microbes and plants, big seasonal variations, seepage and evaporation reduced the flow in the initial operation of the system. Despite the initial difficulties, the quality of water coming out the system is acceptable for irrigation.

Recommendations and perspectives

The CW can function well under extreme dryland conditions. The oxidation pond was the major source of evaporation and bad odors. Therefore, alternatives to the oxidation pond are needed. Cost effectiveness of the system still has to be evaluated systematically.     

Substance-related environmental monitoring

Background  Due to the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive and other legal regulations (e.g., national laws like the German Federal Soil Protection Act), but also due to the implementation of the new EU chemicals management system REACH, environmental monitoring will gain increasing importance for the surveillance of environmental quality as well as for the assessment of chemicals. Against this background, the Work Group on ‘Environmental Monitoring’ of the Division of ‘Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology’ within the German Chemical Society has compiled a position paper on substance-related environmental monitoring. Scope  Core elements of this position paper are the definitions of important terms like monitoring, exposure monitoring, effect monitoring, and integrated monitoring. Moreover, temporal and spatial aspects (monitoring of spatial distributions, trend monitoring, and retrospective monitoring) and their applications are discussed. The main focus of this position paper is the coverage of aspects which have to be observed for the preparation and implementation of a monitoring program. Essential is the clear specification of the targets of the monitoring which determine the development of the monitoring concept and its realization, e.g., if environmental media (compartments) or organisms are most appropriate as samples for the aim of the study. Of course, also the properties of the target substances are important (e.g., lipophilicity/bioaccumulation as pre-requisite for an exposure monitoring with organisms). Finally, the monitoring phases of sample planning, sampling, storage and transport of samples, selection of analytical methods, quality assurance measures as well as reporting are discussed. Perspectives  An important issue for the future is to link the quantification of chemicals in environmental compartments (exposure and pollution monitoring) more closely to the study of biological effects (effect monitoring) than has been the case up to now. Furthermore, by inclusion of a spatial differentiation, a comprehensive evaluation of the state of an ecosystem can be obtained and the relevance of the results improved. Practical examples of monitoring studies which illustrate various aspects covered in this position paper will be presented in a series of publications by members of the Work Group in the following issues of this journal.

Characterization of PM2.5-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Atlanta—Seasonal variations at urban,suburban, and rural ambient air monitoring sites

Twenty-eight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and methylated PAHs (Me-PAH) were measured in daily PM_2.5 samples collected at an urban site, a suburban site, and a rural site in and near Atlanta during 2004 (5 samples/month/site). The suburban site, located near a major highway, had higher PM_2.5-bound PAH concentrations than did the urban site, and the rural site had the lowest PAH levels. Monthly variations are described for concentrations of total PAHs (∑PAHs) and individual PAHs. PAH concentrations were much higher in cold months than in warm months, with average monthly ∑PAH concentrations at the urban and suburban-highway monitoring sites ranging from 2.12 to 6.85 ng m^?3 during January–February and November–December 2004, compared to 0.38–0.98 ng m^?3 during May–September 2004. ∑PAH concentrations were found to be well correlated with PM_2.5 and organic carbon (OC) within seasons, and the fractions of PAHs in PM_2.5 and OC were higher in winter than in summer. Methyl phenanthrenes were present at higher levels than their un-substituted homologue (phenanthrene), suggesting a petrogenic (unburned petroleum products) input. Retene, a proposed tracer for biomass burning, peaked in March, the month with the highest acreage and frequency of prescribed burning and unplanned fires, and in December, during the high residential wood-burning season, indicating that retene might be a good marker for burning of all biomass materials. In contrast, potassium peaked only in December, indicating that it might be a more specific tracer for wood-burning.     

Comparing the impacts of hiking, skiing and horse riding on trail and vegetation in different types of forest

Nature-based tourism in protected areas has increased and diversified dramatically during the last decades. Different recreational activities have a range of impacts on natural environments. This paper reports results from a comparison of the impacts of hiking, cross-country skiing and horse riding on trail characteristics and vegetation in northern Finland. Widths and depths of existing trails, and vegetation on trails and in the neighbouring forests were monitored in two research sites during 2001 and 2002. Trail characteristics and vegetation were clearly related to the recreational activity, research site and forest type. Horse trails were as deep as hiking trails, even though the annual number of users was 150-fold higher on the hiking trails. Simultaneously, cross-country skiing had the least effect on trails due to the protective snow cover during winter. Hiking trail plots had little or no vegetation cover, horse riding trail plots had lower vegetation cover than forest plots, while skiing had no impact on total vegetation cover. On the other hand, on horse riding trails there were more forbs and grasses, many of which did not grow naturally in the forest. These species that were limited to riding trails may change the structure of adjacent plant communities in the long run. Therefore, the type of activities undertaken and the sensitivity of habitats to these activities should be a major consideration in the planning and management of nature-based tourism. Establishment of artificial structures, such as stairs, duckboards and trail cover, or complete closure of the site, may be the only way to protect the most sensitive or deteriorated sites.     

A review of post-modern management techniques as currently applied to Turkish forestry

This paper reviews the effects of six post-modern management concepts as applied to Turkish forestry. Up to now, Turkish forestry has been constrained, both in terms of its operations and internal organization, by a highly bureaucratic system. The application of new thinking in forestry management, however, has recently resulted in new organizational and production concepts that promise to address problems specific to this Turkish industry and bring about positive changes. This paper will elucidate these specific issues and demonstrate how post-modern management thinking is influencing the administration and operational capacity of Turkish forestry within its current structure.