Forecasting Peak Daily Ozone Levels: Part 2—A Regression with Time Series Errors Model Having a Principal Component Trigger to Forecast 1999 and 2002 Ozone Levels

Abstract

A modified time series approach, a Box-Jenkins regression with time series errors (RTSE) model plus a principal component (PC) trigger, has been developed to forecast peak daily 1-hr ozone (O₃) in real time at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee North (UWM-N) during 1999 and 2002. The PC trigger acts as a predictor variable in the RTSE model. It tries to answer the question: will the next day be a possible high O₃ day? To answer this question, three PC trigger rules were developed: (1) Hi-Low Checklist, (2) Discriminant Function Approach I, and (3) Discriminant Function Approach II. Also, a pure RTSE model without including the PC trigger and a persistence approach were tested for comparison. The RTSE model with DFA I successfully forecast the only two 1-hr federal exceedances (124 ppb), one in 1999 and one in 2002. In terms of the O₃ 100-ppb exceedances, 60–80% of the incorrect forecasts occurred with incorrect PC decisions. A few others may have been caused by unexpected O_3- weather relations. When the three approaches used UWM-N data to forecast a 100-ppb exceedance somewhere in the Milwaukee, WI, metropolitan area, their performance was dramatically improved: the false alarm rate was reduced from 0.89 to 0.44, and the probability of detection was increased from 0.71 to 0.88.     

Applying phytochemical analysis in the pre-selection process of plant-based substrates for biomethanation: the case of avocado oil processing byproducts

Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - Phytochemicals in avocado oil processing byproducts were evaluated in this study. This information was used to make inferences use of these...     

Metals recycling : A comparative national analysis

The purpose of this paper is to establish a definitive measure for a recycling rate in various countries. Numerous measures have been used in the past and have been based on a variety of assumptions, so that the literature has become very difficult to interpret. The objective here is to assess and explain how a recycling rate has been established such that it is unambiguous and serves as a reference point for future work. It then becomes possible to compare and contrast the recycling effort in different countries, and determine the potential for increased activity.     

Transformation of a non-oestrogenic steroid metabolite to an oestrogenically active substance by minimal bacterial activity

The majority of oestrogenic material excreted from humans and wildlife, and therefore released into sewers, is in a conjugated form. However, the finding of “free” oestrogens in sewage effluent suggests that these metabolites are somehow converted back into an active form, before or during passage through a sewage treatment process. When male fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) were continuously exposed to oestradiol-3-glucuronide, in a continuous-flow system, it demonstrated no inherent oestrogenic activity. However, when fish were exposed to effluent generated from laboratory simulations of sewage treatment processes, to which had been added oestradiol-3-glucuronide, oestrogenic activity was observed, suggesting microbial activity was capable of degrading the steroid metabolite into a more potent oestrogen. Oestrogenic potency was determined by measuring changes in plasma vitellogenin (egg yolk precursor) concentrations and gonadosomatic index. The results suggest that inactive metabolites of steroids are very readily biotransformed into biologically active oestrogens.     

Phylogenetic relationships within the class holothuroidea,inferred from 18S rRNA gene data

This molecular phylogenetic analysis of 18S ribosomal RNA (18SrDNA) gene sequences from 16 species of holothuroid, suggests strong support for an alternative taxonomic scheme to replace the existing classification. When trees drawn from the 18S rDNA data were constrained to show expected relationships between the holothourid orders, they were significantly worse than the best tree under SH tests. These analyses indicated strongly that the subclass Aspidochirotacea is paraphyletic. Sequences from the order Dendrochirotida grouped with aspidochiroitid sequences, with high bootstrap support, to the exclusion of the elasipod sequence. In line with recent morphological studies the order Apodida were a basal sister group to the other three holothuroid orders examined and the Dendrochirotida was a derived holothuroid order. Brendan F. Keegan, Richard Powell: R.I.P     

Community-based observing networks and systems in the Arctic: Human perceptions of environmental change and instrument-derived data

Regional Environmental Change - Many papers have addressed the differing approaches to observation by scientists collecting instrumented data and by community or local knowledge-based observations....     

Identifying correlates of success and failure of native freshwater fish reintroductions

Reintroduction of imperiled native freshwater fish is becoming an increasingly important conservation tool amidst persistent anthropogenic pressures and new threats related to climate change. We summarized trends in native fish reintroductions in the current literature, identified predictors of reintroduction outcome, and devised recommendations for managers attempting future native fish reintroductions. We constructed random forest classifications using data from 260 published case studies of native fish reintroductions to estimate the effectiveness of variables in predicting reintroduction outcome. The outcome of each case was assigned as a success or failure on the basis of the author's perception of the outcome and on whether or not survival, spawning, or recruitment were documented during post‐reintroduction monitoring. Inadequately addressing the initial cause of decline was the best predictor of reintroduction failure. Variables associated with habitat (e.g., water quality, prey availability) were also good predictors of reintroduction outcomes, followed by variables associated with stocking (e.g., genetic diversity of stock source, duration of stocking event). Consideration of these variables by managers during the planning process may increase the likelihood for successful outcomes in future reintroduction attempts of native freshwater fish. Identificación de Correlaciones de Éxito y Fracaso de Reintroducciones de Peces de Nativos Agua Dulce