Policy evaluation of vehicle exhaust standards in Japan from 1995 to 2005 based on two human health risk indices for air pollution and global warming

Measures for vehicle exhaust emissions aimed at reducing either air pollution or global warming could have counterproductive effects on one another. Increasing diesel passenger vehicles, which generally have lower CO₂ emissions than gasoline counterparts, leads to increasing particulate matter (PM) emissions, while gasoline has lower PM emissions than diesel. It is said that stringent limits on PM emission factors discourages improved CO₂ emission factors. Without including both effects in a risk evaluation, one cannot evaluate whether the total risk is reduced or not. Hence, we evaluated representative exhaust emission measures based on risk evaluation for both air pollution and global warming. Considering consumer choice between diesel and gasoline passenger vehicles and emissions standards adopted in Japan from 1995 to 2005, we built five cases for vehicle policy evaluation. For each case, we estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as an index of human health risk caused by lung cancer linked to inhalation exposure of elemental carbon in PM as well as due to global warming linked to CO₂. The results of our risk evaluation reveal that the case adopting the 2005 new long-term Japanese emission standard reduces the human health risk caused by lung cancer due to air pollution by 0.6 × 10³ DALY, but would increase the risk due to global warming by 31.9 × 10³ DALY compared with the case of adopting EURO 4, for the same conditions of passenger vehicle choice from 1995. These results suggest that the characteristics of Japanese emissions standards are mainly designed to reduce air pollution.     

Drinking water risk assessment in practice: the case of Swedish drinking water producers at risk from floods

To achieve a safe and reliable drinking water supply, water producers need to manage a large range of risks regarding both water quality and quantity. A risk management approach where risks are systematically identified and handled in a preventive manner is promoted by the World Health Organization and supported by researchers and drinking water experts worldwide. Risk assessment is an important part of such a management approach, and a variety of tools for risk assessment are described in the literature. There is, however, little knowledge of how drinking water risk assessment is performed in practice, including which tools that are actually used. This study investigates the use of risk assessment tools, and the approach to risk management, on a local level in the Swedish water sector. It is based on interviews with key persons from a targeted selection of water producers. We find that the application of tools as well as the approach to risk assessment and management differs considerably between the water producers. The tools most frequently used are mainly the ones promoted or required by Swedish national organizations. Although many of the water producers have done some kind of risk assessment, most have not implemented a risk management approach. Furthermore, their knowledge of the concepts of risk and risk management is often limited. The largest challenge identified is to prioritize risk assessment, so that it is actually performed and then used as a basis for managing risk in a systematic way.     

An improvement selection methodology for key performance indicators

Key performance indicators (KPIs) are critical measures for determining the health of a manufacturing plant in relationship to the plant’s goals. In today’s competitive environment, manufacturers cannot be careless about their business; in fact, they must ensure that their KPIs are effective and use them to make improvements when necessary. This paper describes a method for suggesting improvements to a manufacturer’s KPIs, based on the results achieved from a workshop to score the KPI on a number of predefined criteria. The approach uses a prospect theory approach to weight the scoring. Different problem formulations were derived that allow for both recommendations for improvements and the recommendations for disinvestments to over-performing KPIs. The authors applied the developed approach to two workshop outputs, each from independent manufacturers, and the results highlighted the significant difference between the two manufacturers in terms of improvement priorities and KPI assessment. The optimal improvement suggestions were compared to those found through a fast heuristic. It was determined that given the underlying assumptions of the approach that the heuristic solutions were just as adequate as the optimal ones.     

Heat wave vulnerability and exposure mapping for Osaka City,Japan

Heat waves and heat-related stresses are increasing environmental concerns in urban areas. The impact of heat waves is dependent on the intensity and duration of each event and on underlying environmental and socio-demographic factors which influence population vulnerability. In order to develop effective adaptation strategies, it is important to develop a method to clearly identify the most vulnerable areas based on these factors. The purpose of this study is to develop and map a heat wave vulnerability index combined with heat exposure analysis to identify areas where interventions can be targeted. The vulnerability index was derived from a principle component analysis of eight key variables that influence heat wave vulnerability. Eight proxy measures of vulnerability were obtained from 2010 census and land-use data for the 1904 census districts of Osaka City. Three principle components explained >77 % of the variance (age, employment and education; social isolation; density and lack of green space). The components were combined and weighted to produce a vulnerability score for each census district. The vulnerability scores ranged from 0 to 106, were categorised into eight vulnerability levels and were overlaid with fine-scale air temperature observations. The resulting output identified the distribution of population vulnerability and exposure. This assessment of vulnerability, combining exposure and sensitivity components, can provide precedent for efficient, targeted action to be taken to reduce the impact of heat waves at present and under climate change.     

Clarifying relationships between participatory approaches,issues, processes,and results,through crosscutting case analysis in Japan’s environmental,energy, and food policy areas

Participatory public engagement approaches such as Consensus Conferences, Deliberative Polling^®, and Planning Cells have been used to try and resolve environmental disputes in Japan; however, the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches have not been analyzed adequately or comprehensively. This paper evaluates practical applications of each of the above participatory approaches and conducts a crosscutting analysis of these applications to evaluate how effectively each approach provides scientific information to participants and to consider how the quality of deliberations that occur during these processes affect their outputs. Based on existing classification of participatory processes, and methodology for public involvement in US environmental decision-making, this study compares and contrasts the processes and outcomes of 25 participatory planning case studies in Japan. After compiling a case inventory of participatory approaches, the features of one approach are documented using qualitative analysis, and the aspects of four other approaches are confirmed using crosscutting analysis. In so doing, the likely strengths and weaknesses of each approach are suggested as follows. When discussions require an understanding of scientific knowledge, the Consensus Conference tends to be more suitable than the DP approach. If the consensus of participants is expected, the Consensus Conference is also thought to be suitable. But through a DP process or Simplified Planning Cells approach, we can know the quantitative portion of each opinion through results of ballots. In sum, new participatory approach that incorporates strengths of the Consensus Conference and the Simplified Planning Cells into Local Environmental Planning is needed. Thus, the quality of consensus building could be improved.     

Responding to a policy mandate to collaborate: structuring collaboration in the collaborative forest landscape restoration program

The Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program (CFLRP) aims to expand the pace and scale of forest restoration on national forests in the United States. The program requires candidate projects to develop landscape-scale forest restoration proposals through a collaborative process and continue to collaborate throughout planning, implementation, and monitoring. Our comparative case analysis of the initial selected projects examines how existing collaborative groups draw on past experience of collaboration and the requirements of a new mandate to shape collaborative structures as they undertake CFLRP work. While mandating collaboration appears contrary to what is often defined as an informal and emergent process, mandates can encourage stakeholder engagement and renew commitment to overcome past conflict. Our findings also suggest that a collaborative mandate can lead to increased attention and scrutiny, prompting adjustments to collaborative process and structure. As such, mandating collaboration creates dynamic tensions between past experience and new requirements for collaborative practice.     

Coupling of the Water Cycle with Patterns of Urban Growth in the Baltimore Metropolitan Region,United States

Regional municipal water plans typically do not recognize complex coupling patterns or that increased withdrawals in one location can result in changes in water availability in others. We investigated the interaction between urban growth and water availability in the Baltimore metropolitan region where urban growth has occurred beyond the reaches of municipal water systems into areas that rely on wells in low‐productivity Piedmont aquifers. We used the urban growth model SLEUTH and the hydrologic model ParFlow.CLM to evaluate this interaction with urban growth scenarios in 2007 and 2030. We found decreasing groundwater availability outside of the municipal water service area. Within the municipal service area we found zones of increasing storage resulting from increased urban growth, where reduced vegetation cover dominated the effect of urbanization on the hydrologic cycle. We also found areas of decreasing storage, where expanding impervious surfaces played a larger role. Although the magnitude of urban growth and change in water availability for the simulation period were generally small, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity of changes in subsurface storage. This suggests that there are locally concentrated areas of groundwater sensitivity to urban growth where water shortages could occur or where drying up of headwater streams would be more likely. The simulation approach presented here could be used to identify early warning indicators of future risk.     

Applying Statistical Causal Analyses to Agricultural Conservation: A Case Study Examining P Loss Impacts

Estimating the effect of agricultural conservation practices on reducing nutrient loss using observational data can be confounded by factors such as differing crop types and management practices. As we may not have the full knowledge of these confounding factors, conventional statistical meta‐analysis methods can be misleading. We discuss the use of two statistical causal analysis methods for quantifying the effects of water and soil conservation practices in reducing P loss from agricultural fields. With the propensity score method, a subset of data was used to form a treatment group and a control group with similar distributions of confounding factors. With the multilevel modeling method, data were stratified based on important confounding factors, and the conservation practice effect was evaluated for each stratum. Both methods resulted in similar estimates of the conservation practice effect (total P load reduction avg. ~70%). In addition, both methods show evidence of conservation practices reducing the incremental increase in total P export per unit increase in fertilizer application. These results are presented as examples of the types of outcomes provided by statistical causal analyses, not to provide definitive estimates of P loss reduction. The enhanced meta‐analysis methods presented within are applicable for improved assessment of agricultural practices and their effects and can be used for providing realistic parameter values for watershed‐scale modeling.     

Food: From Commodity to Commons

Our food and farming system is not socially, economically or ecologically sustainable. Many of the ills are a result of market competition driving specialization and linear production models, externalizing costs for environmental, social and cultural degradation. Some propose that market mechanisms should be used to correct this; improved consumer choice, internalization of costs and compensation to farmers for public goods. What we eat is determined by the path taken by our ancestors, by commercialization and fierce competition, fossil fuels and demographic development. Based on those, governments and the food industry are the choice architects who determine what we eat; consumer choice plays a marginal role. Using market mechanisms to internalize cost and compensate farmers for public goods has been proposed for decades but little progress has been made. There are also many practical, ethical and theoretical objections to such a system. The market is not a good master for a sustainable food system. Instead we need to find new ways of managing the food system based on food as a right and farming as a management system of the planet Earth. The solutions should be based on relocalization of food production and de-commodification of food and our symbionts, the plants and animals we eat.