RECYCLING INPUT DATA DURING ANALYTIC ELEMENT MODELING NEAR INDIANAPOLIS,INDIANA1

ABSTRACT: Overlapping and adjacent ground water investigations are common in areas where aquifers are threatened by industrial development. In the Indianapolis area in Marion County, Indiana, a patchwork of ground water flow models have been used during the past 20 years to evaluate ground water resources and to determine the effects of local contamination. In every case these ground water models were constructed from scratch. Site specific finite difference grids or finite element meshes inhibit the direct reuse of input data when the area of interest shifts. Because the aquifer is not discretized into a grid or mesh with analytic element models, there are unique opportunities for direct reuse of model input data. In two applications of this principle we illustrate how the newly emerging analytic element method allows a fairly straightforward reuse of model input data from previous models in the same general area. In analytic element models of Central Indiana, streams and their tributaries are represented in different resolutions. Input data items of several modeling studies are stored and cataloged on disk in such a manner that they can be selectively retrieved by a data management program PREPRO. In this manner, a new ground water model can be set up quickly with input data which have been previously defined and tested during model calibration.     

Uncertainty in integrated assessment: A social scientific perspective

In the context of integrated assessment, the authors address the issue of uncertainty and subjectivity in modelling. In relating bias to different perspectives, the authors introduce the methodology of multiple model routes, which are reflections of different perceptions of reality and various policy preferences. As heuristic they use three perspectives, which are distinguished in cultural theory. The article describes case-studies on the population and health controversy in order to illustrate the possibilities of their approach. The article concludes with discussing the lessons learned by applying this methodology.     

Management of a Dutch resident barnacle goose <Emphasis Type="Italic">Branta leucopsis</Emphasis> population: How can results from counts,ringing and hunting bag statistics be reconciled?

The resident Dutch Northern Delta barnacle geese Branta leucopsis population expanded steadily since birds first bred in 1982, increasing agricultural conflict. Derogation shooting has been used since 2005 to scare geese from sensitive crops and to reduce population size. Numbers almost doubled to ca. 28 000 individuals during 2007–2014, despite annual removal of 15–25% of geese and adult and juvenile survival rates of 79 and 67% (cf. natural survival of 96% for both age classes). Simple population modelling, using estimated annual survival values and fixed fecundity, predicted a moderate increase to 21 500 individuals in 2014. It is unclear whether current harvest levels are sufficient to halt population growth. Shooting may be less effective because of the disproportionate take of immature post-breeding and of individuals from other populations in winter. Discrepancies between counted and modelled abundance call for caution and improved effect monitoring of derogation shooting before harvest levels are increased further.     

Wistful wilderness: communication about ‘new’ nature in the Netherlands

Based on in-depth interviews, this article presents findings of a study centred on public communication regarding Tiengemeten, a Dutch island previously occupied by farmers. An answer is sought to the question of how visitors to Tiengemeten evaluate, according to their own experiences, the discourse of people involved in Tiengemeten from a policy and communication perspective. This study showed that visitors’ experiences do not always match the emotions appealed to in public communication materials. It is also suggested that people involved from a policy and communication perspective should refrain from using ‘heavily value-laden’ phraseology. For reasons of trust, this article suggests aligning public communication with genuine experiences of visitors. This is also necessary for avoiding scepticism of visitors as policy makers and communication professionals run a risk that public communication regarding nature becomes counterproductive.     

Systemic accident risk assessment in air traffic by Monte Carlo simulation

A systemic accident model considers accidents as emergent phenomena from variability and interactions in a complex system. Air traffic risk assessments have predominantly been done by sequential and epidemiological accident models. In this paper we demonstrate that Monte Carlo simulation of safety relevant air traffic scenarios is a viable approach for systemic accident assessment. The Monte Carlo simulations are based on dynamic multi-agent models, which represent the distributed and dynamic interactions of various human operators and technical systems in a safety relevant scenario. The approach is illustrated for a particular runway incursion scenario, which addresses an aircraft taxiing towards the crossing of an active runway while its crew has inappropriate situation awareness. An assessment of the risk of a collision between the aircraft taxiing with an aircraft taking-off is presented, which is based on dedicated Monte Carlo simulations in combination with a validation approach of the simulation results. The assessment particularly focuses on the effectiveness of a runway incursion alert system that warns an air traffic controller, in reducing the safety risk for good and reduced visibility conditions.     

Are wages more important for employees in poorer countries with harsher climates?

The purpose of the present research was to demonstrate that the perceived importance of wages is a function of thermal climate and national wealth. As hypothesized, analyses of 37 nationally representative samples of 22 483 blue‐ and white‐collar workers and 5544 managers show that wages are perceived as more important in poorer countries with colder climates (e.g., Azerbaijan) than in richer countries with colder climates (e.g., Canada) and in poorer and richer countries with temperate climates (e.g., Uganda, Singapore). The results suggest that performance‐related pay may be most effective in poorer countries with colder climates. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Isotopic fractionation between seawater and the shell of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Scrobicularia plana</Emphasis> (Bivalvia) and its application for age validation

This study analyzed the isotopic profiles of four aragonitic shells of Scrobicularia plana in conjunction with measured seawater temperatures and salinities. Comparison of δ¹⁸O_SHELL with expected values revealed fractionation of δ¹⁸O in near equilibrium with the ambient environment. Growth cessation occurred between November and March. Carbonate deposition stopped when temperatures were <12°C. Analysis of δ¹³C_SHELL values suggested that carbon in the shell does not reflect the DIC in ambient water, likely due to the incorporation of metabolic carbon. An ontogenetic trend of increasing δ¹³C values over time was observed, likely related to changes in metabolic activity. Annual growth patterns were inferred from δ¹⁸O_SHELL profiles and compared with internal and external growth lines. Estimations of age based on external lines were unreliable, resulting in overestimation of age and underestimation of growth rates, likely due to the disturbance lines being wrongly identified as annual. Analysis of internal lines may lead to over- or underestimation of age and was more reliable in recent portions of the shell.