Predictive mapping of soil organic carbon in wet cultivated lands using classification-tree based models: The case study of Denmark

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is one of the most important carbon stocks globally and has large potential to affect global climate. Distribution patterns of SOC in Denmark constitute a nation-wide baseline for studies on soil carbon changes (with respect to Kyoto protocol). This paper predicts and maps the geographic distribution of SOC across Denmark using remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GISs) and decision-tree modeling (un-pruned and pruned classification trees). Seventeen parameters, i.e. parent material, soil type, landscape type, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, mean curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, flow accumulation, specific catchment area, tangent slope, tangent curvature, steady-state wetness index, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Wetness Index (NDWI) and Soil Color Index (SCI) were generated to statistically explain SOC field measurements in the area of interest (Denmark). A large number of tree-based classification models (588) were developed using (i) all of the parameters, (ii) all Digital Elevation Model (DEM) parameters only, (iii) the primary DEM parameters only, (iv), the remote sensing (RS) indices only, (v) selected pairs of parameters, (vi) soil type, parent material and landscape type only, and (vii) the parameters having a high impact on SOC distribution in built pruned trees. The best constructed classification tree models (in the number of three) with the lowest misclassification error (ME) and the lowest number of nodes (N) as well are: (i) the tree (T1) combining all of the parameters (ME = 29.5%; N = 54); (ii) the tree (T2) based on the parent material, soil type and landscape type (ME = 31.5%; N = 14); and (iii) the tree (T3) constructed using parent material, soil type, landscape type, elevation, tangent slope and SCI (ME = 30%; N = 39). The produced SOC maps at 1:50,000 cartographic scale using these trees are highly matching with coincidence values equal to 90.5% (Map T1/Map T2), 95% (Map T1/Map T3) and 91% (Map T2/Map T3). The overall accuracies of these maps once compared with field observations were estimated to be 69.54% (Map T1), 68.87% (Map T2) and 69.41% (Map T3). The proposed tree models are relatively simple, and may be also applied to other areas.     

Decision support in urban water management based on generic scenarios: The example of NoMix technology

Urine source separation (NoMix technology) followed by processing the concentrated nutrient solution has the potential to become a cost-efficient alternative to conventional end-of-pipe nutrient elimination. A choice of processing technologies can only be made for specific scenarios, and there is currently no methodology for analyzing generic situations. In setting up a formalized decision-support methodology (based on STEEPLED analysis), we discuss how to create such generic scenarios, how to couple them with process engineering objectives, how to define the technology requirements, and finally how to produce a realistic subset of technology alternatives. The methodology is tested in five real scenarios. We also touch on the criteria for a final choice of technology taking into account large uncertainties about the performance of real technologies. We conclude that technology development is one of the most important requirements for implementing urine source separation in practice. There is an urgent need to develop cost-efficient processing technologies that satisfy the requirements of stakeholders.     

Gender impact on first trimester markers in Down syndrome screening

The influence of fetal gender on the level in the first trimester of the serological markers alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free beta human chorionic gonadotropin (βhCG) and on nuchal translucency is described for 2637 singleton pregnancies with normal outcome. Mean log MoM values for pregnancies with female and male fetuses were calculated using regression of log marker values on gestational age expressed as crown rump length and on maternal weight. A pronounced gender impact was found for free βhCG, being 16% higher for female than for male fetuses. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The case for consumption-based accounting of greenhouse gas emissions to promote local climate action

One of the challenges faced by local governments in the work with municipal climate action plans concerns accounting for the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—what emissions should be targeted, development of emissions over time, and how to effectively measure the success of local climate action. In this paper, we present challenges in developing a GHG emissions inventory related to the provision of municipal services. We argue that a consumption-based perspective, illustrated through the use of the carbon footprint (CF), rather than more conventional production-based inventory, provides a more useful and less misleading indicator. We present an analysis of the CF of municipal services provided by the city of Trondheim. The use of data directly from the city's accounting system ensures a reliable calculation of indirect emissions, and, with some minor modifications, also accurate data on direct emissions. Our analysis shows that approximately 93 percent of the total CF of municipal services is indirect emissions, located in upstream paths, underlining the need of introducing consumption-based indicators that takes into account upstream GHG emissions.     

Participatory Forest Management in Ethiopia: Learning from Pilot Projects

Different arrangements of decentralized forest management have been promoted as alternatives to centralized and top down approaches to halt tropical deforestation and forest degradation. Ethiopia is one of the countries piloting one of these approaches. To inform future programs and projects it is essential to learn from existing pilots and experiences. This paper analyses five of the pilot participatory forest management (PFM) programs undertaken in Ethiopia. The study is based on the Forest User Group (FUG) members’ analyses of the programs using selected outcome variables: forest income, change in forest conditions, forest ownership feelings and effectiveness of FUGs as forest managing institutions. These variables were assessed at three points in time—before the introduction of PFM, during the project implementation and after the projects ended. Data were collected using group discussions, key informant interviews and transect walks through the PFM forests. The results show that in all of the five cases the state of the forest is perceived to have improved with the introduction of PFM, and in four of the cases the improvement was maintained after projects ended. Regulated access to the forests following introduction of PFM was not perceived to have affected forest income negatively. There are, however, serious concerns about the institutional effectiveness of the FUGs after projects ended, and this may affect the success of the PFM approach in the longer term.     

Transport of ammonium perfluorooctanoate in environmental media near a fluoropolymer manufacturing facility

In order to understand better the pathways for transport of ammonium perfluorooctanoate (APFO) from a point source, a focused investigation of environmental media (water and soil) near a fluoropolymer manufacturing facility (Site) was undertaken. Methods were developed and validated at 2 microg kg(-1) [the limit of quantitation (LOQ)] in soil, and at 50 ng l(-1) in water. Environmental media were sampled from a public water supply well field located north of the Site, across a river. The data suggest that APFO air emissions from the Site are transported to the well field, deposited onto the soil, and then migrate downward with precipitation into the underlying aquifer.     

Designing a Spatially Balanced, Randomized Site Selection Process for Regional Stream Surveys: The EMAP Mid-Atlantic Pilot Study

In 1993, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as part of the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), initiated a sample survey of streams in the mid-Atlantic. A major objective of the survey was to quantify ecological condition in wadeable streams across the region. To accomplish this goal, we selected 615 stream sites using a randomized sampling design with some restrictions. The design utilized the digitized stream network taken from 1:100,000-scale USGS topographic maps as the sample frame. Using a GIS, first- through third-order (wadeable) stream segments in the sample frame were randomly laid out in a line and sampled at fixed intervals after a random start. We used a variable probability approach so that roughly equal numbers of first-, second-, and third-order stream sites would appear in the sample. The sample design allows inference from the sample data to the status of the entire 230,400 km of wadeable stream length in the mid-Atlantic study area. Of this mapped stream length, 10% was not in the target population because no stream channel existed (4%), the stream channel was dry (5%), or the stream was not wadeable (1%). We were unable to collect field data from another 10% of the mapped stream length due to lack of access (mostly landowner denials). Thus, the field data we collected at 509 sites allows inference to the ecological condition for 184,600 km of the mapped stream length in the region.     

Food availability at birth limited reproductive success in historical humans

Environmental conditions in early life can profoundly affect individual development and have consequences for reproductive success. Limited food availability may be one of the reasons for this, but direct evidence linking variation in early-life nutrition to reproductive performance in adulthood in natural populations is sparse. We combined historical agricultural data with detailed demographic church records to investigate the effect of food availability around the time of birth on the reproductive success of 927 men and women born in 18th-century Finland. Our study population exhibits natural mortality and fertility rates typical of many preindustrial societies, and individuals experienced differing access to resources due to social stratification. We found that among both men and women born into landless families (i.e., with low access to resources), marital prospects, probability of reproduction, and offspring viability were all positively related to local crop yield during the birth year. Such effects were generally absent among those born into landowning families. Among landless individuals born when yields of the two main crops, rye and barley, were both below median, only 50% of adult males and 55% of adult females gained any reproductive success in their lifetime, whereas 97% and 95% of those born when both yields were above the median did so. Our results suggest that maternal investment in offspring in prenatal or early postnatal life may have profound implications for the evolutionary fitness of human offspring, particularly among those for which resources are more limiting. Our study adds support to the idea that early nutrition can limit reproductive success in natural animal populations, and provides the most direct evidence to date that this process applies to humans.