Assessing agricultural land-use change in the Midlands region of KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa: application of mixed multinomial logit

On-farm tree cultivation is considered an important strategy to mitigate detrimental environmental impacts of agricultural land-use change (ALUC). In South Africa, however, little is known about farm-level incentives and constraints that govern ALUC decisions among small-scale farmers. To address this knowledge gap, this study employs a mixed multinomial logit model by using a combination of revealed and stated preference data. After correcting for endogeneity, the estimated results show that decisions about ALUC are rationally derived and driven by clear but heterogeneous preferences and trade-offs between crop productivity, food security and labour saving. The results further show that the decision to plant sugarcane is constrained by landholding, whilst farmland afforestation is negatively influenced by household size. Decisions to convert land use are also driven by the behaviour of peer groups and agro-ecological conditions. Based on these findings, important policy implications for sustainable land use are outlined.     

Household preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for freshwater quality improvement in Pakistan’s Swat River Valley

This two-part study investigates household preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for water quality improvement of the Swat River in Pakistan. First, a four-point Likert scale was used to rank preferences for water quality benefits without using any financial metric. Results show that households have comparatively strong preferences for non-use benefits. Second, a contingent valuation question was designed to determine WTP for adopting a management plan developed exclusively for water quality improvement in the Swat River. The estimated annual mean WTP per household for water quality improvement is $2.40 when donating to an NGO. Generalizing this value to households living in Swat Valley would generate up to $544,000 per year. The present value aggregate benefit for 15 years would be sufficient to cover the present value of aggregate costs to adopt the management plan. A mandatory program that would require paying for the management plan generates half the WTP compared to the voluntary plan, but is still sufficient to cover costs and may be more feasible than a voluntary program because payment is assured.     

Vietnam’s seafood boom: Economic growth with impoverishment?

By 2050 most seafood will be sourced through aquaculture, with a range of production intensities being required to sustain livelihoods and to meet future needs from seafood. This makes Vietnam a particularly insightful case, since Vietnam is at the forefront of the trend toward greater aquaculture production. Our aim in this paper is to examine the social-ecological sustainability of small producer livelihoods contributing to Vietnam’s seafood boom. This paper uses original survey data to understand the range of fishery-based livelihoods that have contributed to Vietnam being a leading global exporter of seafood. We investigate the kinds of fishery-based livelihood activities that households are engaged in, consider the type and amount (kilograms) of species caught or farmed annually, and examine household perceptions’ of change in species quantity. We find that Vietnam’s seafood sector is facing real sustainability challenges: Nearly 30 % of small producers—fishers and fish farmers—within our sample rest at or below Vietnam’s rural poverty line. Ecological decline and disease in farmed fish is perceived to be a serious issue for all fishers. In this context, policy and management interventions need to better reflect social and ecological variability, adopt an integrated coastal systems perspective across fisheries and aquaculture, and consider the most impact-effective poverty interventions.     

Income sources and inequality among ethnic minorities in the Northwest region,Vietnam

This study analyzes the sources of income inequality among ethnic minorities in the Northwest region—the poorest and highest inequality region of Vietnam. Using an analysis of Gini decomposition by income source, the results show that while agricultural income, notably crop income, considerably decreases income inequality, off-farm income sources (wage and non-farm self-employment incomes) are found to increase inequality. This can be explained that in comparison with other income sources, agricultural income is more equally distributed and the main income source for most poor households. However, off-farm income sources are more unequally distributed and flow disproportionately toward the better-off. The findings support the hypothesis that income diversification in non-farm activities results in either greater inequality if opportunities for these activities are skewed toward to the better-off or less inequality if such opportunities are accessible to the poorer part of the population.     

Benefits and costs of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan,Indonesia, under different policy scenarios

Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.     

Benefits from and threats to European treeline ecosystem services: an exploratory study of stakeholders and governance

The concept of ecosystem services (ES) is being increasingly applied in environmental governance and science. To safeguard key ES in changing and complex social–ecological systems such as treeline areas, we need to (1) map key ES in different types of treeline landscapes, (2) identify the stakeholders benefiting from and threatening ES, and (3) examine how ES could be governed more sustainably. We explore these questions in European treeline areas by using quantitative and qualitative social science techniques to analyse responses from a survey of local scientific experts in 20 altitudinal and polar treeline areas in 15 European countries. In contrast to the prevalent consideration of treeline areas as a single type of a social–ecological system, we show that European treeline areas can be divided into two types that significantly differ in the delivery of ES. Our analyses allowed us to categorize stakeholders according to their benefits from and threats to ES; “Green key players” formed the most numerous group, while smaller number of stakeholder groups was categorized as “Harmless crowd”, “Occasional stressors”, and “Risky users”. However, behaviour of stakeholders is very much site-specific. Of 595 pairs of stakeholders analysed, we found <5 EU-wide “Allies” and “Opponents”. Recommendations for improved governance include adjusting governance instruments to specific problems in divergent treeline systems and creating participatory structures where stakeholders better interact with scientists and can genuinely influence management decisions.     

Cognitive and institutional influences on farmers’ adaptive capacity: insights into barriers and opportunities for transformative change in central Arizona

The prospect of unprecedented environmental change, combined with increasing demand on limited resources, demands adaptive responses at multiple levels. In this article, we analyze different attributes of farm-level capacity in central Arizona, USA, in relation to farmers’ responses to recent dynamism in commodity and land markets, and the institutional and social contexts of farmers’ water and production portfolios. Irrigated agriculture is at the heart of the history and identity of the American Southwest, although the future of agriculture is now threatened by the prospect of “mega-droughts,” urbanization and associated inter-sector and inter-state competition over water in an era of climatic change. We use farm-level survey data, supplemented by in-depth interviews, to explore the cross-level dimensions of capacity in the agriculture–urban nexus of central Arizona. The surveyed farmers demonstrate an interest in learning, capacity for adaptive management and risk-taking attitudes consistent with emerging theory of capacity for land use and livelihood transformation. However, many respondents perceive their self-efficacy in the face of future climatic and hydrological change as uncertain. Our study suggests that the components of transformational capacity will necessarily need to go beyond the objective resources and cognitive capacities of individuals to incorporate “linking” capacities: the political and social attributes necessary for collective strategy formation to shape choice and opportunity in the future.     

Conditions for the development of anaerobic digestion technologies using the organic fraction of municipal solid waste: perspectives for Poland

This article outlines problems related to the location of facilities designed to treat the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW). Anaerobic digestion (AD) facilities are investigated as a treatment option, while taking into account the aspects of renewable energy generation. This research has been spurred on by the relationship between waste management, energy generation issues and spatial planning procedures. The analysis is focused on urban and semi-urban areas of medium and large cities. One of the most difficult issues associated with siting of waste processing plants is its integration with local infrastructures, avoiding conflicts and negative environmental impacts at the same time. This research aims to analyse possible locations for AD plants fuelled by OFMSW in Poland. Based on the experience gained from other countries and lessons learnt from the analysis of existing facilities in Europe, conditions for the location of this type of waste treatment plants have been defined, with the focus on economic, environmental and social issues. Most likely, the results of the multicriteria decision analysis for siting of municipal solid waste AD plants (M-BIST tool) could be transferred to other countries, especially those with a comparable GDP level and a similar framework for a waste management system.     

Energy policy evaluation in practice: the case of production subsidies and DEN-B in the Netherlands

This paper describes how energy policy can be evaluated in practice. The goal is to make policy makers aware of how an evaluation can be based on scientific principles and to help economists appreciate how an evaluation can be performed if strong empirical evidence is lacking. We have built a basic evaluation framework and have applied this to a selection of Dutch energy policy instruments, namely production subsidies and their complementary non-financial instrument, DEN-B. Our evaluation criterion was effectiveness, defined as the extent to which policy instruments contribute to achieving policy goals. The evaluation was based on existing ex post evaluations complemented by interviews and other available data. We conclude that production subsidies and DEN-B were (partly) effective. Furthermore, the Dutch government increased effectiveness by reconsidering the design of production subsidies. We also formulate lessons for future policy evaluations and energy markets policies.     

Climate change adaptation strategies for transportation infrastructure in Prince George,Canada

Transport infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts as it is designed for long operational lives, and both episodic and seasonal conditions contribute to deterioration, disruption and unsafe incidents. There are some examples of adaptation in transportation design, but many communities do not have the capacity to incorporate climate change considerations into infrastructure planning and management. Researchers worked closely with the City of Prince George, in Central British Columbia, Canada, to build on existing work and explore how the City could plan, design, and maintain roads and other structures to account for climate change. A local steering committee was formed, and created and evaluated 23 potential research topics. Two focus areas were selected for further investigation and explored during a workshop with practitioners, researchers, consultants and other representatives. The workshop precipitated an investigation of projected impacts of climate change on road maintenance and road safety, and plans to explore alternative paving techniques. Outcomes of the case study provide insights regarding climate change and local transportation infrastructure, including: how researchers can engage with local experts to explore adaptation; issues local governments perceive as important; and barriers communities face as they attempt to address vulnerabilities.