Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7x10(14), 1.2x10(13), 2.8x10(10) and 5.3x10(9)Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately 160 million pounds. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.     

Vitamins,folic acid and neural tube defects: Comments on investigations in the United States

No clear answer concerning whether multivitamin/folate supplementation prevents neural tube defects (NTDs) is provided by three studies in the United States. All these studies are occurrence in nature, no recurrence studies having been conducted. The Atlanta Birth Defects Study is subject to pronounced memory and recall biases, the length between event and interview being as long as 16 years. In a second study (Boston University), objections can be raised to certain aspects of the experimental design, and the claim that 22 per cent of women started vitamins sufficiently early after pregnancy diagnosis to influence NTD formation is suspicious. Our NICHD case control study of 541 women in California and Illinois revealed no evidence for multivitamins or folic acid preventing NTDs. U.S. public policy-makers face difficulties in applying results of recurrence or occurrence studies in high-risk areas to low-risk areas in the U.S.     

A survey of diagnostic amniocenteses in Oxford from 1974–1981

A survey was conducted of the results of mid-trimester diagnostic amniocenteses in the Oxford Region from 1974 to 1981. The survey used data relating to all 4357 singleton pregnancies in which an amniocentesis was performed during this period. Follow-up information on outcome was obtained in respect of 4284 (98 per cent) pregnancies. A cell culture to determine karyotype and an alpha-fetoprotein determination was carried out in all cases. From 1974 to 1981 amniocenteses became increasingly common, rising from 2 to 32 per 1000 births. The most common indication for amniocentesis was a high risk of a chromosome abnormality–56 per cent of all amniocenteses. Within this group advanced maternal age was responsible for 89 per cent of the cases. The next most common indication was a high risk of a neural tube defect (37 per cent of all amniocenteses)–in 1974 a raised maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein level accounted for only 4 per cent of these; by 1981 this had risen to 67 per cent. There were seven false-positive and 132 true-positive diagnoses of neural tube defect; since 1981, with the introduction of amniotic fluid acetylocholinesterase determination as a secondary diagnostic test for neural tube defects, there have been no further false-positive diagnoses. In 1981 76 per cent of women aged 35 years or more did not have an amniocentesis. It is not known to what extent this was due to not offering women in this age group amniocentesis or to women not accepting such an offer.     

Maternal serum thyroid antibodies in early pregnancy and fetal Down's syndrome

Thyroid antibodies were measured in mid-trimester antenatal serum samples from 77 pregnancies affected by fetal Down's syndrome and 385 unaffected control pregnancies. Using a haemagglutination technique, thyroglobulin antibodies were detected in 5·2 per cent of cases (4) and 2·9 per cent of controls (11), and thyroid microsomal antibodies were detected in 22 per cent (17) and 15 per cent (59), respectively. Using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for thyroglobulin antibodies and a cut-off level of 50 KIU/1, positive results were found in 25 per cent of cases (19) and 22 per cent of controls (84). Using an ELISA for thyroid microsomal antibodies and the same cut-off level, the proportions were 52 per cent (40) and 39 per cent (149), respectively. While not statistically significant, the differences were consistent with the previously reported increased levels of thyroid antibody found in nonpregnant women who had had pregnancies associated with Down's syndrome.     

The three-dimensional prey field of the northern krill, Meganyctiphanes norvegica, and the escape responses of their copepod prey

In the north Atlantic, Meganyctiphanes norvegica feeds predominantly on copepods, including Calanus spp. To quantify its perceptual field for prey, and the sensory systems underlying prey detection, the responses of tethered krill to free-swimming Calanus spp. were observed in 3D using silhouette video imaging. An attack–which occurred despite the krill’s being tethered—was characterized by a pronounced movement of the krill’s antennae towards the target, followed by a propulsion and opening of the feeding basket. Frequency distributions of prey detection distances were significantly different in the light vs. the dark, with median values of 26.5 mm and 19.5 mm, respectively. There were no significant differences in the angles at which prey were detected by krill (relative to the predator’s longitudinal body axis) in the light vs. the dark. Prey detections were symmetrically distributed on either side of the predator, in both light and dark. However, significant asymmetry was found in the dorsal–ventral direction with 80% of the prey detections located below the midline of the krill’s body axis and, given the placement and orientation of the compound eyes, presumably outside its visual field of view. This indicates that, at least under these conditions, vision was not the main sensory modality involved in the detection of active prey by M. norvegica. However, under some circumstances, vision may provide supplemental information. Avoidance responses of copepod prey were nearly twice the velocity of their nominal background swimming speed (153 ± 48 and 85 ± 75 mm s⁻¹, respectively), on average taking them 43 ± 16 mm away from the predator. This is far beyond the krill’s perceptual range, suggesting that the escape reaction provides an effective deterrent to predation (although perhaps less so for free-swimming krill). This information can be used to parameterize models that assess the role of krill as predators in marine ecosystems.     

Predatory behavior and prey selection by army ants in a desert-grassland habitat

Summary Colonies of Neivamyrmex nigrescens conduct extensive nocturnal raids on other ants and termites in the desert-grassland of Arizona-New Mexico. We collected quantitative data on several aspects of raiding to pinpoint differences due to colony size and behavioral phase. In the nomadic phase, colonies began raiding at sunset and continued until dawn. Larger colonies covered more area, discovered more prey sites, and collected more booty than smaller colonies, but there were no systematic changes in raid intensity over the course of the nomadic phase. In the statary phase, raiding occurred less frequently and was less intense when it occurred; however, at the end of this phase, raiding was similar to nomadic phase raids in extent, duration, and booty captured. N. nigrescens preyed exclusively on termites and ants, and appeared to select certain species of Pheidole in preference to other ants. Pheidole was the most abundant genus, but was preyed upon twice as often as expected based on relative colony density. Pheidole attempted to avoid predation by fleeing or defending their nest, but rarely succeeded. Because they are about the same size as army ants and lack defensive chemicals, Pheidole made comparatively easy prey. N. nigrescens ignored or was repelled by other ants (Pogonomyrmex, Novomessor, Iridomyrmex, Myrmecocystus) during the early summer, when Pheidole was abundant; however, in late summer when Pheidole was less available, the army ants preyed upon Novomessor cockerelli. N. harrisi raided in close proximity to N. nigrescens, but preyed exclusively on Solenopsis xyloni. Selection of prey and partitioning of resources are now indicated in several army ant species; these processes have probably been important factors in the evolution of the ants' predatory behavior.