Accounting for Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Case Study of Hector's Dolphin Mortality due to Gillnet Entanglement

Abstract: Uncertainties about biological data and human effects often delay decisions on management of endangered species. Some decision makers argue that uncertainty about the risk posed to a species should lead to precautionary decisions, whereas others argue for delaying protective measures until there is strong evidence that a human activity is having a serious effect on the species. We have developed a method that incorporates uncertainty into the estimate of risk so that delays in action can be reduced or eliminated. We illustrate our method with an actual situation of a deadlock over how to manage Hector's dolphin ( Cephalorhychus hectori ). The management question is whether sufficient risk is posed to the dolphins by mortalities in gillnets to warrant regulating the fisheries. In our quantitative risk assessment, we use a population model that incorporates both demographic ( between-individual) and environmental ( between-year) stochasticity. We incorporate uncertainty in estimates of model parameters by repeatedly running the model for different combinations of survival and reproductive rates. Each value is selected at random from a probability distribution that represents the uncertainty in estimating that parameter. Before drawing conclusions, we perform sensitivity analyses to see whether model assumptions alter conclusions and to recommend priorities for future research. In this example, uncertainty did not alter the conclusion that there is a high risk of population decline if current levels of gillnet mortality continue. Sensitivity analyses revealed this to be a robust conclusion. Thus, our analysis removes uncertainty in the scientific data as an excuse for inaction.     

Chemical composition of the slippery epicuticular wax blooms on Macaranga (Euphorbiaceae) ant-plants

Summary. The stems of many Macaranga ant-plants (Euphorbiaceae) are covered by epicuticular wax crystals rendering the surface very slippery for most insects. These wax blooms act as selective barriers protecting the symbiotic ant partners, which are specialized “wax-runners”, against the competition of other ants. Glaucous stems occur almost exclusively among the ant-plants of the genus Macaranga (). We analyzed the cuticular lipids of 16 Macaranga species by GC-MS and investigated the wax crystal morphology using SEM. Presence of crystalline wax blooms was strongly correlated with high concentrations (52%–88%) of triterpenoids. In contrast epicuticular waxes of glossy Macaranga surfaces contained only 0% to 36% of these dominant components. Therefore we conclude that triterpenoids are responsible for the formation of the thread-like Macaranga wax crystals. In all Macaranga ant-plants investigated, the principal components were epitaraxerol and taraxerone accompanied by smaller portions of taraxerol, β-amyrin and friedelin. Only in the case of the non-myrmecophytic M. tanarius did β-amyrin predominate. Moreover, we found that only in M. tanarius, the dense wax crystal lacework is torn into large mosaic-like pieces in the course of secondary stem diameter growth. Both chemical and macroscopic differences may contribute to a reduced slipperiness of M. tanarius stems and appear to be functionally important. The distribution of wax crystals and their composition amongst different sections of the genus suggests that glaucousness is a polyphyletic character within Macaranga. Received 7 October 1999; accepted 3 December 1999     

A survey of antennal responses by five species of coniferophagous bark beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) to bark volatiles of six species of angiosperm trees

Summary. Using Porapak Q traps, we collected the bark volatiles of six angiosperm trees native to British Columbia: black cottonwood, Populus trichocarpa Torr. & A. Gray (Salicaceae), trembling aspen, P. tremuloides Michx. (Salicaceae), paper birch, Betula papyrifera Marsh. (Betulaceae), bigleaf maple, Acer macrophyllum Pursh (Aceraceae), red alder, Alnus rubra Bong. (Betulaceae), and Sitka alder, A. viridis ssp. sinuata (Regel) á. L?ve & D. L?ve (Betulaceae). Utilising coupled gas chromatographic-electroantennographic detection analysis, the captured volatiles were assayed for antennal responses in five species of coniferophagous bark beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), sympatric with most or all of the angiosperm trees: the Douglas-fir beetle, Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins, the mountain pine beetle, D. ponderosae Hopkins, the spruce beetle, D. rufipennis (Kirby), the western balsam bark beetle, Dryocoetes confusus Swaine, and the pine engraver, Ips pini (Say). The identities of 25 antennally-active compounds were determined by coupled gas chromatographic-mass spectroscopic analysis, and co-chromatographic comparisons with authentic chemicals. The compounds identified were: hexanal, (E)-2-hexenal, (Z)-3-hexen-1-ol, 1-hexanol, heptanal, α-pinene, frontalin, benzaldehyde, β-pinene, 2-hydroxycyclohexanone, 3-carene, limonene, β-phellandrene, benzyl alcohol, (E)-ocimene, salicylaldehyde, conophthorin, guaiacol, nonanal, methyl salicylate, 4-allylanisole, decanal, thymol methyl ether, (E)-nerolidol, and dendrolasin. A number of these compounds are known semiochemicals that are active in the behaviour of other organisms, including bark beetles, suggesting a high degree of semiochemical parsimony. Antennally-active compounds ranged from seven in A. viridis to 17 in P. trichocarpa. The fewest number of compounds (9) were detected by I. pini and the largest number (24) were detected by D. pseudotsugae. Six compounds excited the antennae of all five species of bark beetles. The large number of antennally-active compounds detected in common by numerous bark beetles and present in common in numerous nonhost trees supports the hypothesis of olfaction-based recognition and avoidance of nonhost angiosperm trees during the process of host selection by coniferophagous bark beetles. Received 13 December 1999; accepted 14 March 2000     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

Ökotoxikologische und humantoxikologische Risikobewertung PAK-belasteter Böden vor und nach biologischer Behandlung

The goal of the present work is to assess the adverse effects of soil bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) which remain in soils after biological remediation. We focus on risk assessment for mammalian species with respect to the oral uptake of contaminated soil particles and compare the results of a biomarker test with those of an ecotoxicological assay, the bioluminescence inhibition test withVibrio fischeri. As a biomarker effect in mammals, we determined the liver microsomal cytochrome P450 enzyme CYP1A1 which is induced by PAH in exposed rats. After biological soil treatment, different amounts of PAH remain in the soil depending on the soil properties and initial pollutant composition. Particularly, higher condensated PAH resists biological treatment due to its hydrophobicity. In addition, high amounts of organic carbon in the soils affect remediation efficiency. In the bioluminescence inhibition test, eluates of all biologically treated soils studied do not reveal any or only low inhibitory effects. In contrast, the oral uptake of biologically treated contaminated soils leads to induction levels for CYP1A1 similar to those in the untreated samples. A good correlation is obtained between CYP1A1 levels and the amount of 5 and 6-ring PAH in the soil samples. The main result is that the remediation efficiency determined by the luminescence test is not reflected by the biomarker test, a finding which indicates the high bioavailability of residual PAH in soils. Consequently, new criteria for human risk assessment can be delineated.     

Application of a “closed-can” technique for measuring radon exhalation from mine samples of Punjab, Pakistan

Using the closed-can technique, radon exhalation rate measurements have been carried out for shale and coal samples collected from various mines located in the Chakwal and Makarwal areas of Pakistan. For the two areas, the measured average values of the exhalation rates from shale are 1.45±0.13 and 0.67±0.25 Bq m⁻² h⁻¹ and for coal are 1.0±0.03 and 0.65±0.32 Bq m⁻² h⁻¹, respectively. These values are much lower than the measured exhalation rates from alum-shale-based Nordic concrete which has values in the 50–200 Bq m⁻² h⁻¹ range. The lower values of the measured exhalation rates from the shale and coal deposits in the Chakwal and Makarwal areas are indicative of their lower uranium contents and mine workers in these areas do not face any abnormal health hazard due to radon since the exhalation rates have been found to be on the low side.     

Framing of Geoengineering Affects Support for Climate Change Mitigation

The growing recognition that climate change mitigation alone will be inadequate has led scientists and policymakers to discuss climate geoengineering. An experiment with a US sample found, contrary to previous research, that reading about geoengineering did not reduce conservatives’ skepticism about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, depending on how it is framed, geoengineering can reduce support for mitigation among both conservatives and non-conservatives. When geoengineering is framed as a major solution, people worry less about climate change, leading to reduced mitigation support. When framed as disastrous, people perceived geoengineering as riskier, also leading to a decrease in mitigation support. A more moderate framing of geoengineering as a partial solution is less susceptible to moral hazard effects. Overall, results suggest that geoengineering will not lessen political polarization over anthropogenic climate change, and could undercut support for mitigation efforts. Instead, framing geoengineering as a small piece to solving a big puzzle seems to be the best strategy to weaken this potential moral hazard.     

Responding to a policy mandate to collaborate: structuring collaboration in the collaborative forest landscape restoration program

The Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program (CFLRP) aims to expand the pace and scale of forest restoration on national forests in the United States. The program requires candidate projects to develop landscape-scale forest restoration proposals through a collaborative process and continue to collaborate throughout planning, implementation, and monitoring. Our comparative case analysis of the initial selected projects examines how existing collaborative groups draw on past experience of collaboration and the requirements of a new mandate to shape collaborative structures as they undertake CFLRP work. While mandating collaboration appears contrary to what is often defined as an informal and emergent process, mandates can encourage stakeholder engagement and renew commitment to overcome past conflict. Our findings also suggest that a collaborative mandate can lead to increased attention and scrutiny, prompting adjustments to collaborative process and structure. As such, mandating collaboration creates dynamic tensions between past experience and new requirements for collaborative practice.