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961.
Andrea M. Bassi 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(2):285-295
Observing the many and varied reactions to the Kyoto Protocol, it becomes clear that different governments find themselves
in different contexts that eventually direct them toward taking dissimilar positions on energy issues. This paper, through
five integrated studies, investigates whether contextualizing energy issues is (are) relevant to support energy policy formulation
and evaluation and provides insights into how to operationalize the contextualization. Instead of considering the most widely
accepted tools currently used to assess and evaluate energy policy, this research proposes the utilization of a holistic framework
that incorporates social, economic and environmental factors as well as their relations to the energy sector to better contextualize
global, regional and national energy issues. This framework, which accounts for feedback loops, delays and non-linearity,
is applied to case studies to investigate the longer-term performance of selected energy policies. Results of the study indicate
the likely emergence of various unexpected side effects and elements of policy resistance over the medium and longer term
due to the interrelations existing between energy and society, economy and environment. Furthermore, while side effects and
unintended consequences may arise both within the energy sector and in the other sectors, they simultaneously influence society,
economy and environment. 相似文献
962.
James S. Risbey 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(1):197-203
Water resources in Australia are sensitive to changes in rainfall. Ongoing droughts in south-west and south-east Australia are stressing water resources in the major cities and in agricultural regions. Climate change scenarios for Australia include reasonable prospects of long-term drying, which would exacerbate these issues. The dryer scenarios would entail major readjustments and costs on natural and human systems. 相似文献
963.
964.
Surface sediments of the lagoons of Lomé, Togo, were analyzed for mercury, methylmercury, and trace elements. Concentrations
were greater than typical for natural lagoon sediments, and with greater variability within the Eastern lagoon compared to
the Western one. The Eastern lagoon is larger and has been dredged in the past, while the Western lagoon, which also receives
major waste inputs, has not been dredged and shows less tidal flushing. Accordingly, one naturally believes that the Eastern
lagoon is cleaner and probably safe to use due to its natural resources, including fishes to eat. Unexpectedly, we describe
here that mercury methylation was greater in the Eastern lagoon, indicating increased bioavailability of mercury, as probably
facilitated by past dredging that decreased solid-phase retention of inorganic mercury. Urbanization has historically been
more developed in the southern part of the lagoons, which is still reflected in contamination levels of sediment despite dredging,
probably because sources of contamination are still more important there today. Such urban contamination emphasizes the need
to regulate waste discharges and possible airborne contamination in growing cities of developing countries, and implements
environmental and public health monitoring, especially in relation to misbelieves systematically associated with the cleansing
effect of dredging activity. 相似文献
965.
966.
This study projected responses of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to three climate change scenarios at a resolution
of 5 km × 5 km across the state of Louisiana, USA. In addition, we assessed uncertainties associated with the NPP projection
at the grid and state levels. Climate data of the scenarios were derived from Community Climate System Model outputs. Changes
in annual NPP between 2000 and 2050 were projected with the forest ecosystem model PnET-II. Results showed that forest productivity
would increase under climate change scenarios A1B and A2, but with scenario B1, it would peak during 2011–2020 and then decline.
The projected average NPP under B1 over the years from 2000 to 2050 was significantly different from those under A1B and A2.
Forest NPP appeared to be primarily a function of temperature, not precipitation. Uncertainties of the NPP projection were
due to large spatial resolution of the climate variables. Overall, this study suggested that in order to project effects of
climate change on forest ecosystem at regional level, modeling uncertainties could be reduced by increasing the spatial resolution
of the climate projections. 相似文献
967.
Long-term (1860–2010) catchment mass balance calculations rely on models and assumptions which are sources of uncertainty
in acidification assessments. In this article, we report on an application of MAGIC to model acidification at the four Swedish
IM forested catchments that have been subject to differing degrees of acidification stress. Uncertainties in the modeled mass
balances were mainly associated with the deposition scenario and assumptions about sulfate adsorption and soil mass. Estimated
base cation (BC) release rates (weathering) varied in a relatively narrow range of 47–62 or 42–47 meq m−2 year−1, depending on assumptions made about soil cation exchange capacity and base saturation. By varying aluminum solubility or
introducing a dynamic weathering feedback that allowed BC release to increase at more acidic pHs, a systematic effect on predicted
changes in acid neutralizing capacity (ΔANC ca. 10–41 μeq l−1) and pH (ca. ΔpH = 0.1–0.6) at all sites was observed. More robust projections of future changes in pH and ANC are dependent
on reducing uncertainties in BC release rates, the timing, and extent of natural acidification through BC uptake by plants,
temporal changes in soil element pools, and fluxes of Al between compartments. 相似文献
968.
Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions
even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes:
water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities
with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient
on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people
are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue.
Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably
using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient
on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially
less effective set of strategies. 相似文献
969.
Rundqvist S Hedenås H Sandström A Emanuelsson U Eriksson H Jonasson C Callaghan TV 《Ambio》2011,40(6):683-692
Shrubs and trees are expected to expand in the sub-Arctic due to global warming. Our study was conducted in Abisko, sub-arctic
Sweden. We recorded the change in coverage of shrub and tree species over a 32– to 34-year period, in three 50 × 50 m plots;
in the alpine-tree-line ecotone. The cover of shrubs and trees (<3.5 cm diameter at breast height) were estimated during 2009–2010
and compared with historical documentation from 1976 to 1977. Similarly, all tree stems (≥3.5 cm) were noted and positions
determined. There has been a substantial increase of cover of shrubs and trees, particularly dwarf birch (Betula nana), and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), and an establishment of aspen (Populus tremula). The other species willows (Salix spp.), juniper (Juniperus communis), and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) revealed inconsistent changes among the plots. Although this study was unable to identify the causes for the change in shrubs
and small trees, they are consistent with anticipated changes due to climate change and reduced herbivory. 相似文献
970.
This study was conducted in the Swedish sub-Arctic, near Abisko, in order to assess the direction and scale of possible vegetation
changes in the alpine–birch forest ecotone. We have re-surveyed shrub, tree and vegetation data at 549 plots grouped into
61 clusters. The plots were originally surveyed in 1997 and re-surveyed in 2010. Our study is unique for the area as we have
quantitatively estimated a 19% increase in tree biomass mainly within the existing birch forest. We also found significant
increases in the cover of two vegetation types—“birch forest-heath with mosses” and “meadow with low herbs”, while the cover
of snowbed vegetation decreased significantly. The vegetation changes might be caused by climate, herbivory and past human
impact but irrespective of the causes, the observed transition of the vegetation will have substantial effects on the mountain
ecosystems. 相似文献