Cognitive and institutional influences on farmers’ adaptive capacity: insights into barriers and opportunities for transformative change in central Arizona

The prospect of unprecedented environmental change, combined with increasing demand on limited resources, demands adaptive responses at multiple levels. In this article, we analyze different attributes of farm-level capacity in central Arizona, USA, in relation to farmers’ responses to recent dynamism in commodity and land markets, and the institutional and social contexts of farmers’ water and production portfolios. Irrigated agriculture is at the heart of the history and identity of the American Southwest, although the future of agriculture is now threatened by the prospect of “mega-droughts,” urbanization and associated inter-sector and inter-state competition over water in an era of climatic change. We use farm-level survey data, supplemented by in-depth interviews, to explore the cross-level dimensions of capacity in the agriculture–urban nexus of central Arizona. The surveyed farmers demonstrate an interest in learning, capacity for adaptive management and risk-taking attitudes consistent with emerging theory of capacity for land use and livelihood transformation. However, many respondents perceive their self-efficacy in the face of future climatic and hydrological change as uncertain. Our study suggests that the components of transformational capacity will necessarily need to go beyond the objective resources and cognitive capacities of individuals to incorporate “linking” capacities: the political and social attributes necessary for collective strategy formation to shape choice and opportunity in the future.     

Conditions for the development of anaerobic digestion technologies using the organic fraction of municipal solid waste: perspectives for Poland

This article outlines problems related to the location of facilities designed to treat the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW). Anaerobic digestion (AD) facilities are investigated as a treatment option, while taking into account the aspects of renewable energy generation. This research has been spurred on by the relationship between waste management, energy generation issues and spatial planning procedures. The analysis is focused on urban and semi-urban areas of medium and large cities. One of the most difficult issues associated with siting of waste processing plants is its integration with local infrastructures, avoiding conflicts and negative environmental impacts at the same time. This research aims to analyse possible locations for AD plants fuelled by OFMSW in Poland. Based on the experience gained from other countries and lessons learnt from the analysis of existing facilities in Europe, conditions for the location of this type of waste treatment plants have been defined, with the focus on economic, environmental and social issues. Most likely, the results of the multicriteria decision analysis for siting of municipal solid waste AD plants (M-BIST tool) could be transferred to other countries, especially those with a comparable GDP level and a similar framework for a waste management system.     

Energy policy evaluation in practice: the case of production subsidies and DEN-B in the Netherlands

This paper describes how energy policy can be evaluated in practice. The goal is to make policy makers aware of how an evaluation can be based on scientific principles and to help economists appreciate how an evaluation can be performed if strong empirical evidence is lacking. We have built a basic evaluation framework and have applied this to a selection of Dutch energy policy instruments, namely production subsidies and their complementary non-financial instrument, DEN-B. Our evaluation criterion was effectiveness, defined as the extent to which policy instruments contribute to achieving policy goals. The evaluation was based on existing ex post evaluations complemented by interviews and other available data. We conclude that production subsidies and DEN-B were (partly) effective. Furthermore, the Dutch government increased effectiveness by reconsidering the design of production subsidies. We also formulate lessons for future policy evaluations and energy markets policies.     

Climate change adaptation strategies for transportation infrastructure in Prince George,Canada

Transport infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts as it is designed for long operational lives, and both episodic and seasonal conditions contribute to deterioration, disruption and unsafe incidents. There are some examples of adaptation in transportation design, but many communities do not have the capacity to incorporate climate change considerations into infrastructure planning and management. Researchers worked closely with the City of Prince George, in Central British Columbia, Canada, to build on existing work and explore how the City could plan, design, and maintain roads and other structures to account for climate change. A local steering committee was formed, and created and evaluated 23 potential research topics. Two focus areas were selected for further investigation and explored during a workshop with practitioners, researchers, consultants and other representatives. The workshop precipitated an investigation of projected impacts of climate change on road maintenance and road safety, and plans to explore alternative paving techniques. Outcomes of the case study provide insights regarding climate change and local transportation infrastructure, including: how researchers can engage with local experts to explore adaptation; issues local governments perceive as important; and barriers communities face as they attempt to address vulnerabilities.     

Decoupling of nonferrous metal consumption from economic growth in China

Nonferrous metal is an important basis material for the development of the national economy, and its consumption directly affects economic development. It has great significance in the effective utilization of nonferrous metals, development of an environment-friendly society, and investigation of the decoupling of nonferrous metal consumption and GDP growth. The decoupling indicators for nonferrous metal consumption and GDP growth (D _r) in China from 1995 to 2010 were calculated in this study, and the results were analyzed. A productive model based on BP neural network was established. Then, the decoupling indicators for nonferrous metal consumption and GDP growth in China for the period of 2011–2020 were predicted. For the period of 1995–2010, the annual average decoupling indicators were <1 for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel, except for tin, which was 0.21. The analysis showed that the decoupling of nonferrous metal consumption and GDP growth is in a less optimistic situation to copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel in China from 1995 to 2010. The annual average decoupling indicator for tin was 0.21, which indicates relative decoupling. For the period of 2011–2020, the predicted decoupling indicators for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were between 0 and 1. This finding indicates the implementation of relative decoupling. However, the total consumption of nonferrous metals did not decouple from GDP growth.     

Does social justice knowledge matter? Education for sustainable development and student attitudes

Recent conjecture on the potential primacy of physical environmental components in education for sustainable development (ESD) efforts serves to question the centrality of social justice education as a component of ESD. This research explores a sustainable development student’s basic knowledge of social justice conditions in their country of residence and its relationships to policy attitudes that should be of importance to ESD, including beliefs about the importance of corporate social responsibility, their endorsement of gross national product as an effective measure of progress, their overall assessment of the social fairness of current national social justice policy, and their endorsement of the goals of Occupy Wall Street. Results obtained using path-model hypothesis testing indicate that accuracy of knowledge of US standing on social justice issues is significantly related to these policy attitudes, providing support for social justice content in ESD endeavors to create students empowered for engagement in broader policy goals.     

Utilizing international networks for accelerating research and learning in transformational sustainability science

A promising approach for addressing sustainability problems is to recognize the unique conditions of a particular place, such as problem features and solution capabilities, and adopt and adapt solutions developed at other places around the world. Therefore, research and teaching in international networks becomes critical, as it allows for accelerating learning by sharing problem understandings, successful solutions, and important contextual considerations. This article identifies eight distinct types of research and teaching collaborations in international networks that can support such accelerated learning. The four research types are, with increasing intensity of collaboration: (1) solution adoption; (2) solution consultation; (3) joint research on different problems; and (4) joint research on similar problems. The four teaching types are, with increasing intensity of collaboration: (1) adopted course; (2) course with visiting faculty; (3) joint course with traveling faculty; and (4) joint course with traveling students. The typology is illustrated by extending existing research and teaching projects on urban sustainability in the International Network of Programs in Sustainability, with partner universities from Europe, North America, Asia, and Africa. The article concludes with challenges and strategies for extending individual projects into collaborations in international networks.     

A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.     

Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

According to observed twentieth century temperature trends and twenty-first century climate model projections, the region that encompasses the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is identified as a climate change hot spot. We extend previous studies by a comprehensive climatology of heat waves in the EMME based on regional climate model simulations for the recent past and the end of the twenty-first century. A percentile-based definition of heat waves is used to account for local climatic conditions. Spatial patterns of several heat wave properties are assessed and associated with atmospheric circulation regimes over specific locations. To cover a range of possible future climates, we use three SRES emission scenarios. According to our results, all indices that characterize heat wave severity will strongly increase compared with the control period of 1961–1990. The northern part of the EMME could be exposed to increased heat wave amplitudes by 6–10 °C, and the southern part may experience 2–3 months more combined hot days and tropical nights. Heat wave peak temperatures will be higher due to the overall mean warming as well as stronger summer anticyclonic conditions. The projected changes will affect human health and the environment in multiple ways and call for impact studies to support the development of adaptation strategies.