Investigating the link between $$\hbox {PM}_{2.5}$$ and atmospheric profile variables via penalized functional quantile regression

Fine particulate matter (\(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\)) events negatively affect the health of numerous persons globally each year. Previous works have described the association between air pollution and surface-level meteorological conditions; however, there has been less focus on the task of linking air pollution events with meteorological conditions at higher levels of the atmosphere. Working within the functional data framework, we develop a penalized functional quantile regression (PFQR) procedure to model conditional quantiles of a continuous response based on a functional covariate, with the ability to penalize selected derivatives of the estimated coefficient function. Our aim is to investigate the relationship between atmospheric profile variables (APVs), assumed to be functional, and key quantiles of the conditional distribution of surface-level \(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\). Via a simulation study, we find that the performance of our PFQR procedure compares favorably to other related approaches. We conclude with an analysis of \(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\) data at two Southeastern US locations, Columbia, SC and Tampa, FL, where we estimate the coefficient functions for the APVs corresponding to both ‘typical’ and ‘high’ \(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\) events. As we believe that the true coefficient functions are smooth and may be exactly zero over subsets of their domains, we impose penalties on the 0th and 2nd derivatives. Our analysis indicates that the corresponding atmospheric conditions differ between the two locations, and that the conditions differ seasonally within location.     

Prospects for carbon-neutral housing: the influence of greater wood use on the carbon footprint of a single-family residence

This paper examines the energy and carbon balance of two residential house alternatives; a typical wood frame home using more conventional materials (brick cladding, vinyl windows, asphalt shingles, and fibreglass insulation) and a similar wood frame house that also maximizes wood use throughout (cedar shingles and siding, wood windows, and cellulose insulation) in place of the more typical materials used – a wood-intensive house. Carbon emission and fossil fuel consumption balances were established for the two homes based on the cumulative total of three subsystems: (1) forest harvesting and regeneration; (2) cradle-to-gate product manufacturing, construction, and replacement effects over a 100-year service life; and (3) end-of-life effects – landfilling with methane capture and combustion or recovery of biomass for energy production.The net carbon balance of the wood-intensive house showed a complete offset of the manufacturing emissions by the credit given to the system for forest re-growth. Including landfill methane emissions, the wood-intensive life cycle yielded 20 tons of CO₂e emissions compared to 72 tons for the typical house. The wood-intensive home's life cycle also consumed only 45% of the fossil fuels used in the typical house.Diverting wood materials from the landfill at the end of life improved the life cycle balances of both the typical and wood-intensive houses. The carbon balance of the wood-intensive house was 5.2 tons of CO₂e permanently removed from the atmosphere (a net carbon sink) as compared to 63.4 of total CO₂e emissions for the typical house. Substitution of wood fuel for natural gas and coal in electricity production led to a net energy balance of the wood-intensive house that was nearly neutral, 87.1 GJ energy use, 88% lower than the scenario in which the materials were landfilled.Allocating biomass generation and carbon sequestration in the forest on an economic basis as opposed to a mass basis significantly improves the life cycle balances of both houses. Employing an economic allocation method to the forest leads to 3–5 times greater carbon sequestration and fossil fuel substitution attributable to the house, which is doubled in forestry regimes that remove stumps and slash as fuel. Thus, wood use has the potential to create a significantly negative carbon footprint for a house up to the point of occupancy and even offset a portion of heating and cooling energy use and carbon emissions; the wood-intensive house is energy and carbon neutral for 34–68 years in Ottawa and has the potential to be a net carbon sink and energy producer in a more temperate climate like San Francisco.     

Are you okay to drive? Commuting behavior and blood alcohol concentrations among restaurant diners

Objective: Drink driving is widely recognized as a major road safety problem. In Australia, health promotion messages encourage monitoring the number of standard drinks consumed prior to driving. This pilot research aimed to investigate commuting behavior and blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of diners, including intended drivers, at Sunshine Coast restaurants.

Methods: Five hundred and forty-four diners (n = 260 males) consented to participate in a brief interview and to use a breathalyzer device to measure their BAC.

Results: Forty percent of participants advised they don't drink and drive (34% of males, 45% of females; 67.25% of <17–20 years, 30.5% of 50–59 years), and of the remaining participants, 75% advised they count the number of their drinks (69% of males, 84% of females; 32% of <17–20 years, 82% of 50–59 years), while 10% of participants monitored their BAC by how they were feeling (12% of males, 6% of females). Thirty-seven percent of participants said it was easy/very easy to estimate their BAC (41% of males; 33% of females; 21% of <17–20 years, 43% of 50–59 years). The actual BAC was less than expected for 56% of participants, with one-third underestimating BAC and some intended drivers having an actual BAC in excess of the 0.05 limit.

Conclusions: Given the proportion of diners who reported they count the number of drinks, or use feelings as a way to gauge BAC, coupled with the considerable proportion who underestimated their BAC, a safer public health message is to avoid driving if you intend to drink. In addition, targeted intervention for experienced drivers (and, arguably, drinkers) appears warranted, as every participant aged less than 21 years who stated he or she would drive home indeed had a zero BAC. Interestingly every female driver who stated she would be driving home also had a legal BAC, suggesting gender-specific intervention.     

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species’ biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change‐threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change‐threatened species identified with the trait‐based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change‐threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait‐based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change‐vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population‐level threats).     

Relationships between street characteristics and perceived attractiveness for walking reported by elderly people

Walking is important for the health of elderly people. Previous studies have found a relationship between neighbourhood characteristics, physical activity and related health aspects. The multivariate linear regression model presented here describes the relationships between the perceived attractiveness of streets for walking along and (physical) street characteristics. Two hundred and eighty-eight independently living elderly people (between 55 and 80 years old) participated in the study. Street characteristics were assessed along homogeneous street subsections defined as ‘links’. Positively related to perceived attractiveness of links were the following street characteristics: slopes and/or stairs, zebra crossings, trees along the route, front gardens, bus and tram stops, shops, business buildings, catering establishments, passing through parks or the city centre, and traffic volume. Litter on the street, high-rise buildings, and neighbourhood density of dwellings were negatively related to perceived link attractiveness. Overall, the results suggest that three main aspects affect perceived attractiveness of streets for walking, namely tidiness of the street, its scenic value and the presence of activity or other people along the street. The results are discussed within the context of these three aspects.     

Correlation of bioluminescence emissions with ventral photophores in the mesopelagic squidAbralia veranyi (Cephalopoda: Enoploteuthidae)

Specimens of the squidAbralia veranyi were collected off the Bahamas in 1989. The bioluminescence of the ventral photophores was recorded on videotape at 11 to 12°C and 24°C, in conjunction with measurements of the spectral emission at the same temperatures. At 11 °C, the spectrum was unimodal, peaking at 490 nm with a narrow bandwidth. At the higher temperature a shoulder at about 440 nm appeared in the emission spectrum. The short, bright flashes from the subocular photophores had a broader bandwidth and a shorter wavelength emission maximum (475 nm) than that of the ventral photophores. Video recordings at the two temperatures showed no changes in either the identities of the luminescing photophores or their relative intensities. One structurally distinct type of photophore was not illuminated. We conclude that the observed spectral changes were produced within one group of photophores, and that recruitment of the unilluminated photophores would produce an additional spectral component, previously reported from another species ofAbralia (A. trigonura).     

Climate change in Asia: issues and policy options

This article provides a brief review of some of the policy issues facing the Asian region with respect to climate change and its economic consequences. The environmental consequences of Asia's economic rise threaten the future growth of the region. Despite recent economic expansion, Asia will be one of the areas of the world most vulnerable to climate change. While Asia currently contributes moderately to greenhouse gas emissions, the potential for increases in emissions is significant. National and regional policy options, including abatement and adaptation, are examined as strategies for tackling the likely effects of climate change. This study recommends that national initiatives that have no 'regrets' properties be a priority area for further research so that they can be implemented as soon as possible. It is envisaged that in the short to medium term, identifiable no regrets policies can be a useful tool for reducing emissions and vulnerability to climate change in developing regions such as Asia.     

Energetics of mixing for the filling box and the emptying-filling box

The mixing efficiency of a plume in a filling box and an emptying-filling box is calculated for both transient and steady states. The mixing efficiency of a plume in a filling box in an asymptotic state is 1/2, independent of the details of this state or how the plume is modelled. The mixing efficiency of a plume in an emptying-filling box in steady state is \(1 - \xi \), where \(\xi = h/H\), the depth of the ambient layer h normalised by the height of the box H. A deeper mixed layer therefore corresponds to a higher mixing efficiency. These results shed light on the interpretation of mixing efficiencies of open and closed systems.

     

A comparison of employment growth and stability before and after the Fort Worth tornado

This study examined the time series pattern of employment growth and stability in Fort Worth, Texas taking into account the March 28, 2000 tornado. The tornado is treated econometrically as an intervention and both the mean and conditional variance of employment growth were estimated. Overall, this regional labor market experienced a decline in the employment growth rate following the tornado. Among the sectors that exhibited differences in employment dynamics between the pre- and post-tornado periods, the mining sector experienced a significant increase in employment growth following the tornado while the service andwholesale, retail trade sectors experienced significant declines in employment growth in the post-tornado period. The manufacturing, service, and wholesale, retail trade sectors were characterized by greater stability (i.e., a lower level of employment growth volatility) in the post-tornado period than in the pre-tornado period. Interestingly, in several sectors, no differences in the time series dynamics of employment growth were detected between the pre- and post-tornado periods. These sectors included construction, finance, insurance, real estate, government, and transportation and public utilities.     

Effects of human footprint and biophysical factors on the body-size structure of fished marine species

Marine fisheries in coastal ecosystems in many areas of the world have historically removed large-bodied individuals, potentially impairing ecosystem functioning and the long-term sustainability of fish populations. Reporting on size-based indicators that link to food-web structure can contribute to ecosystem-based management, but the application of these indicators over large (cross-ecosystem) geographical scales has been limited to either fisheries-dependent catch data or diver-based methods restricted to shallow waters (<20 m) that can misrepresent the abundance of large-bodied fished species. We obtained data on the body-size structure of 82 recreationally or commercially targeted marine demersal teleosts from 2904 deployments of baited remote underwater stereo-video (stereo-BRUV). Sampling was at up to 50 m depth and covered approximately 10,000 km of the continental shelf of Australia. Seascape relief, water depth, and human gravity (i.e., a proxy of human impacts) were the strongest predictors of the probability of occurrence of large fishes and the abundance of fishes above the minimum legal size of capture. No-take marine reserves had a positive effect on the abundance of fishes above legal size, although the effect varied across species groups. In contrast, sublegal fishes were best predicted by gradients in sea surface temperature (mean and variance). In areas of low human impact, large fishes were about three times more likely to be encountered and fishes of legal size were approximately five times more abundant. For conspicuous species groups with contrasting habitat, environmental, and biogeographic affinities, abundance of legal-size fishes typically declined as human impact increased. Our large-scale quantitative analyses highlight the combined importance of seascape complexity, regions with low human footprint, and no-take marine reserves in protecting large-bodied fishes across a broad range of species and ecosystem configurations.