Setting Site Specific Critical Loads: An Approach using Endorsement Theory and Dempster–Shafer

There is an increasing demand from conservation agencies for site-specific critical loads (CL); unfortunately, there is often very little specific information on a site to determine the important parameters needed to calculate the CL or on the spatial location of the “designated feature” in a site. Determining the most appropriate CL therefore involves using expert judegement to make decisions with incomplete and uncertain information. Endorsement Theory (Cohen, 1985) and Dempster–Shafer statistics (Dempster, 1967; Shafer, 1976) are, respectively, a decision-theoretic and a statistical technique for reasoning under those conditions (uncertainty and incompletness). A key reason for applying these techniques is that they make expert opinion explicit and available for scrutiny. Both techniques have been applied to the problem of setting an appropriate site specific CL, using heathland sites as a case study. Inital findings are encouraging; the uncertainty in expert judgement is made explict, the end results are intuitively reasonable and the methodology apparently acceptable to decision makers.     

Investigating the Uncertainties in the Simple Mass Balance Equation for Acidity Critical Loads for Terrestrial Ecosystems in the United Kingdom

The Simple Mass Balance (SMB)equation has been developed and used as one ofthe principal methods for calculating criticalloads of acidity for forest ecosystems. Criticalloads have formed the basis for informing policyrelated to the control and abatement of emissionsof acidifying pollutants. The SMB equationrelies on a variety of assumptions and dataderived from a variety of sources. Each of thesecomponent constituents has a potential source oferror depending on the method(s) used for theirderivation and the value(s) assigned. The resultis the possibility of generating a range ofcritical load values for a single ecosystem. This paper summarises the SMB equation, examinesthe uncertainties in deriving input values andreviews other works on the key assumptions.     

The effects of multiple beneficial management practices on hydrology and nutrient losses in a small watershed in the Canadian prairies

Most beneficial management practices (BMPs) recommended for reducing nutrient losses from agricultural land have been established and tested in temperate and humid regions. Previous studies on the effects of these BMPs in cold-climate regions, especially at the small watershed scale, are rare. In this study, runoff and water quality were monitored from 1999 to 2008 at the outlets of two subwatersheds in the South Tobacco Creek watershed in Manitoba, Canada. Five BMPs-a holding pond below a beef cattle overwintering feedlot, riparian zone and grassed waterway management, grazing restriction, perennial forage conversion, and nutrient management-were implemented in one of these two subwatersheds beginning in 2005. We determined that >80% of the N and P in runoff at the outlets of the two subwatersheds were lost in dissolved forms, ≈ 50% during snowmelt events and ≈ 33% during rainfall events. When all snowmelt- and rainfall-induced runoff events were considered, the five BMPs collectively decreased total N (TN) and total P (TP) exports in runoff at the treatment subwatershed outlet by 41 and 38%, respectively. The corresponding reductions in flow-weighted mean concentrations (FWMCs) were 43% for TN and 32% for TP. In most cases, similar reductions in exports and FWMCs were measured for both dissolved and particulate forms of N and P, and during both rainfall and snowmelt-induced runoff events. Indirect assessment suggests that retention of nutrients in the holding pond could account for as much as 63 and 57%, respectively, of the BMP-induced reductions in TN and TP exports at the treatment subwatershed outlet. The nutrient management BMP was estimated to have reduced N and P inputs on land by 36 and 59%, respectively, in part due to the lower rates of nutrient application to fields converted from annual crop to perennial forage. Overall, even though the proportional contributions of individual BMPs were not directly measured in this study, the collective reduction of nutrient losses from the five BMPs was substantial.     

An Integrated Approach to Reservoir Management: The Williston Reservoir Case Study

/ The management of industrial reservoirs for hydroelectric energy can cause severe impacts to surrounding communities. This study examines the generation of dust along the northern foreshore zones of Williston Reservoir in northern British Columbia. The dust is generated in the spring when the reservoir levels are low and impacts a relocated First Nations' village (Tsay Keh) at the north end of the reservoir. Data were gathered to provide an overview of the physical conditions that contribute to the dust problem, including a social survey, soil analysis, and vegetation inventory. The study provides a scoping method to assess a large-scale and complex problem with respect to dust management along a large reservoir. Methods for dust control include short- and long-term solutions that integrate the use of native vegetation along the foreshore zones of the reservoir.     

UK electricity requirements and the environmental and economic aspects of the development of the combined cycle power station

In the space of three to four years, gas has changed from being a premium fuel, not to be utilized in power stations, to virtually the only fuel being considered for future electricity generation in the UK. This paper reviews the growth in the use of gas for electricity generation within the UK, with particular regard to the adoption of the gas-fired combined cycle power station. The environmental, economic and strategic issues associated with the proposed development of approximately 27 GW of new gas-fired plant are analysed and the resulting effects on existing base load power plant within the UK are considered.Dr James W.S. Longhurst is Director of the Atmospheric Research and Information Centre, ARIC, at Manchester Metropolitan University He is an environmental scientist who has specialized in the air quality impacts of transport and energy. He holds a BSc, MSc and PhD in Environmental Science from, Plymouth Polytechnic, Aston University and Birmingham University, respectively. He has written numerous papers, consultancy reports, books and technical reports since 1986.Jane Bantock joined ARIC in 1992 with a degree in Environmental Studies from Manchester Polytechnic. She jointly manages ARIC's information and education programmes. Her research interests include the inter-relationship of UK energy policy and emission control in the electricity generating sector, the subject of her part time PhD, and urban air quality issues.     

Designing a Public Web-Based Information System to Illustrate and Disseminate the Development and Results of the DESIRE Project to Combat Desertification

Until around 1995 it was challenging to make the scientific results of research projects publicly available except through presentations at meetings or conferences, or as papers in academic journals. Then it began to be clear that the Internet could become the main medium to publish and share new information with a much wider audience. The DESIRE Project (desertification mitigation and remediation of land—a global approach for local solutions) has built on expertise gained in previous projects to develop an innovative online ‘Harmonized Information System’ (HIS). This documents the context, delivery and evaluation of all tasks in the DESIRE Project using non-scientific terminology, with much of it also available in the local languages of the study sites. The DESIRE-HIS makes use of new possibilities for communication, including video clips, interactive tools, and links to social media networks such as Twitter. Dissemination of research results using this approach has required careful planning and design. This paper sets out the steps that have culminated in a complete online Information System about local solutions to global land management problems in desertification-affected areas, including many practical guidelines for responsible land management. As many of those who are affected by desertification do not have Internet access, printable dissemination materials are also available on the DESIRE-HIS.