COST‐EFFECTIVE POINT‐NONPOINT TRADING: AN APPLICATION TO THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Point‐nonpoint trading has been suggested as a relatively efficient approach for reducing nutrient pollution in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere. However, relatively little economic research has examined the design of trading programs involving nonpoint sources. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economics of several fundamental design choices for point‐nonpoint trading programs. The Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) in Pennsylvania as an example, although many of the insights should generally apply to other regions as well.     

Conceptualizing Sustainability: Simulating Concrete Possibilities in an Imperfect World

This paper uses a cultural model approach to interpret and analyse the impact of an interactive computer simulation tool (GB-Quest) on the possibility of fostering dialogue about sustainability in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. We define cultural models theory, compare cultural models to mental models and illustrate some basic features of cultural models. We then describe the research process in which participants engaged in conversation, guided and facilitated by GB-Quest, about sustainability. Findings suggest that the use of cultural models frameworks reinforces participants' understanding of sustainability. In reflecting on their prior models of sustainability, we argue that study participants can elucidate how cognitive conceptual resources reflect publicly shared knowledge (Turner, 2004).     

A Hydrologic/Water Quality Model Applicati11

Abstract: This paper presents a procedure for standard application of hydrologic/water quality models. To date, most hydrologic/water quality modeling projects and studies have not utilized formal protocols, but rather have employed ad hoc approaches. The procedure proposed is an adaptation and extension of steps identified from relevant literature including guidance provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This protocol provides guidance for establishing written plans prior to conducting modeling efforts. Eleven issues that should be addressed in model application plans were identified and discussed in the context of hydrologic/water quality studies. A graded approach for selection of the level of documentation for each item was suggested. The creation and use of environmental modeling plans is increasingly important as the results of modeling projects are used in decision‐making processes that have significant implications. Standard modeling application protocols similar to the proposed procedure herein provide modelers with a roadmap to be followed, reduces modelers’ bias, enhances the reproducibility of model application studies, and eventually improves acceptance of modeling outcomes.     

Survival Model for Foot and Leg High Rate Axial Impact Injury Data

Objectives: Understanding how lower extremity injuries from automotive intrusion and underbody blast (UBB) differ is of key importance when determining whether automotive injury criteria can be applied to blast rate scenarios. This article provides a review of existing injury risk analyses and outlines an approach to improve injury prediction for an expanded range of loading rates. This analysis will address issues with existing injury risk functions including inaccuracies due to inertial and potential viscous resistance at higher loading rates.

Methods: This survival analysis attempts to minimize these errors by considering injury location statistics and a predictor variable selection process dependent upon failure mechanisms of bone. Distribution of foot/ankle/leg injuries induced by axial impact loading at rates characteristic of UBB as well as automotive intrusion was studied and calcaneus injuries were found to be the most common injury; thus, footplate force was chosen as the main predictor variable because of its proximity to injury location to prevent inaccuracies associated with inertial differences due to loading rate. A survival analysis was then performed with age, sex, dorsiflexion angle, and mass as covariates. This statistical analysis uses data from previous axial postmortem human surrogate (PMHS) component leg tests to provide perspectives on how proximal boundary conditions and loading rate affect injury probability in the foot/ankle/leg (n = 82).

Results: Tibia force-at-fracture proved to be up to 20% inaccurate in previous analyses because of viscous resistance and inertial effects within the data set used, suggesting that previous injury criteria are accurate only for specific rates of loading and boundary conditions. The statistical model presented in this article predicts 50% probability of injury for a plantar force of 10.2 kN for a 50th percentile male with a neutral ankle position. Force rate was found to be an insignificant covariate because of the limited range of loading rate differences within the data set; however, compensation for inertial effects caused by measuring the force-at-fracture in a location closer to expected injury location improved the model's predictive capabilities for the entire data set.

Conclusions: This study provides better injury prediction capabilities for both automotive and blast rates because of reduced sensitivity to inertial effects and tibia–fibula load sharing. Further, a framework is provided for future injury criteria generation for high rate loading scenarios. This analysis also suggests key improvements to be made to existing anthropomorphic test device (ATD) lower extremities to provide accurate injury prediction for high rate applications such as UBB.     

Implications of Functional Capacity Loss and Fatality for Vehicle Safety Prioritization

Objective: We investigate the use of the Functional Capacity Index (FCI) as a tool for establishing vehicle safety priorities by comparing the life year burden of injuries to the burden of fatality in frontal and side automotive crashes. We demonstrate FCI’s utility by investigating in detail the resulting disabling injuries and their life year costs.

Methods: We selected occupants in the 2000–2013 NASS-CDS database involved in frontal and side crashes, merged their injuries with FCI, and then used the merged data to estimate each occupant’s overall functional loss. Lifetime functional loss was assessed by combining this measure of impairment with the occupants’ expected future life spans, estimated from the Social Security Administration’s Actuarial Life Table.

Results: Frontal crashes produce a large number of disabling injuries, particularly to the lower extremities. In our population, these crashes are estimated to account for approximately 400,000 life years lost to disability in comparison with 500,000 life years lost to fatality. Victims of side crashes experienced a higher rate of fatality but a significantly lower rate of disabling injury (0.3 vs. 1.0%), resulting in approximately 370,000 life years lost to fatality versus 50,000 life years lost to disability.

Conclusions: The burden of disabling injuries to car crash survivors should be considered when setting vehicle safety design priorities. In frontal crashes this burden in life years is similar to the burden attributable to fatality.     

Regional Blue and Green Water Balances and Use by Selected Crops in the U.S.

The availability of freshwater is a prerequisite for municipal development and agricultural production, especially in the arid and semiarid portions of the western United States (U.S.). Agriculture is the leading user of water in the U.S. Agricultural water use can be partitioned into green (derived from rainfall) and blue water (irrigation). Blue water can be further subdivided by source. In this research, we develop a hydrologic balance by 8‐Digit Hydrologic Unit Code using a combination of Soil and Water Assessment Tool simulations and available human water use estimates. These data are used to partition agricultural groundwater usage by sustainability and surface water usage by local source or importation. These predictions coupled with reported agricultural yield data are used to predict the virtual water contained in each ton of corn, wheat, sorghum, and soybeans produced and its source. We estimate that these four crops consume 480 km³ of green water annually and 23 km³ of blue water, 12 km³ of which is from groundwater withdrawal. Regional trends in blue water use from groundwater depletion highlight heavy usage in the High Plains, and small pockets throughout the western U.S. This information is presented to inform water resources debate by estimating the cost of agricultural production in terms of water regionally. This research illustrates the variable water content of the crops we consume and export, and the source of that water.     

Using Fly Ash as a Marker to Quantify Culturally‐Accelerated Sediment Accumulation in Playa Wetlands

Wetlands in the Rainwater Basin in Nebraska are vulnerable to sediment accumulation from the surrounding watershed. Sediment accumulation has a negative impact on wetland quality by decreasing the depth and volume of water stored, and the plant community species composition and density growing in the wetland. The objective of this study was to determine the amount of sediment that has accumulated in five selected wetlands in the Rainwater Basin in Nebraska. Soil cores were taken at five or six locations along transects across each wetland. This study used the fly ash, which is generated by coal‐burning locomotives that were present generally in the late 1800s and early 1900s, as a marker to quantify the sediment deposition rates. The cores were divided into 5 cm sections and the soils were analyzed using a fly ash extraction and identification technique. Results indicate that the average depth of sediment ranged from 23.00 to 38.00 cm. The annual average depth of sediment accumulation ranged from 0.18 cm/yr to 0.29 cm/yr. The annual sediment accumulation rate from both wind erosion and water erosion in these five sampling wetlands was between 1.946 and 3.225 kg/m²/yr. The results of this research can be used to develop restoration plans for wetlands. The fly ash testing technology can also be applied to other areas with the railroads across the United States.