A model-based assessment of the environmental impact of land-use change across scales in Southern Amazonia

Regional Environmental Change - This article describes the design of a new model-based assessment framework to identify and analyse possible future trajectories of agricultural development and...     

Deposition of dust with active substances in pesticides from treated seeds in adjacent fields during drilling: disentangling the effects of various factors using an 8-year field experiment

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The side effects from the use of plant protection products and their potential effects on non-target arthropods (NTAs) such as honey bees, other...     

Statistical models for evaluating suspected artefacts in long-term environmental monitoring data

Long-term water quality monitoring is of high value for environmental management as well as for research. Artificial level shifts in time series due to method improvements, flaws in laboratory practices or changes in laboratory are a common limitation for analysis, which, however, are often ignored. Statistical estimation of such artefacts is complicated by the simultaneous existence of trends, seasonal variation and effects of other influencing factors, such as weather conditions. Here, we investigate the performance of generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) to simultaneously identify one or more artefacts associated with artificial level shifts, longitudinal effects related to temporal trends and seasonal variation, as well as to model the serial correlation structure of the data. In the same model, it is possible to estimate separate residual variances for different periods so as to identify if artefacts not only influence the mean level but also the dispersion of a series. Even with an appropriate statistical methodology, it is difficult to quantify artificial level shifts and make appropriate adjustments to the time series. The underlying temporal structure of the series is especially important. As long as there is no prominent underlying trend in the series, the shift estimates are rather stable and show less variation. If an artificial shift occurs during a slower downward or upward tendency, it is difficult to separate these two effects and shift estimates can be both biased and have large variation. In the case of a change in method or laboratory, we show that conducting the analyses with both methods in parallel strongly improves estimates of artefact effects on the time series, even if certain problems remain. Due to the difficulties of estimating artificial level shifts, posterior adjustment is problematic and can lead to time series that no longer can be used for trend analysis or other analysis based on the longitudinal structure of the series. Before carrying out a change in analytic method or laboratory, it should be considered if this is absolutely necessary. If changes cannot be avoided, the analysis of the two methods considered, or the two laboratories contracted, should be run in parallel for a considerable period of time so as to enable a good assessment of changes introduced to the data series.     

Effects of wildfire on runoff generating processes in northern Mongolia

Regional Environmental Change - Seasonal runoff generation in a headwater (~100 km2) of the mountainous Sugnugr Basin, situated within the discontinuous permafrost zone of...     

User Perceptions and Attitudes on Sustainable Urban Transport among Young Adults: Findings from Copenhagen,Budapest and Karlsruhe

Abstract

This paper addresses the relevance of the demand side for the achievement of sustainable transport in urban areas. The underlying thesis is that a better understanding of user habits, perceptions and attitudes with its specific dynamics is essential for a successful design of targeted transport policies. In line with this, the paper at hand is based on research that aims at improving the knowledge of urban-transport-related habits and attitudes of young adults. The results of three interview meetings that were held in Karlsruhe, Budapest, and Copenhagen with participants aged between 20 and 30 are presented. Background of the interviews is a range of studies that indicate that young people in urban areas seem to be less interested in cars than the generation before. And indeed, the interview meetings reveal that participants had a rather pragmatic attitude towards transport modes. They wished a transport system that is flexible, convenient and cheap. Despite many differences, most participants showed rather positive attitudes towards policies supporting alternatives to car-based transport. However, it will be crucial for policy shaping to what extent the observed behaviour patterns and attitudes will persist over time.     

Response of the grasshopper <Emphasis Type="Italic">Myrmeleotettix maculatus</Emphasis> (Orthoptera: Acrididae) to invasion by the exotic moss <Emphasis Type="Italic">Campylopus introflexus</Emphasis> in acidic coastal dunes

In Europe, acidic coastal dunes are threatened by the invasion of the exotic moss Campylopus introflexus. While the effect of the moss encroachment on the vegetation is well analysed, knowledge of possible impact on arthropods is lacking. Thus, an experiment was conducted in acidic coastal dunes on the Baltic island of Hiddensee, Germany. Myrmeleotettix maculatus, a common Orthoptera species of open and dry habitats, was sampled by pitfall trapping in eleven plots invaded by C. introflexus and in eleven native, non-invaded plots rich in lichens. Overall, 826 individuals of M. maculatus were captured (266 nymphs, 560 adults). Mean number of adults was significantly higher in native plots. This maybe explained by a higher proportion of grasses (food supply), a higher availability of shelter (from predators, weather), or more favourable microclimate conditions in native plots and a higher mortality rate in invaded plots. However, mean number of both young and old nymphs did not differ significantly between both types. This could imply that invaded areas at least serve as favourable oviposition sites and larval habitats. The observed negative effect of the moss invasion on M. maculatus remains to be studied on other arthropods.