The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship

Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced. However, in the twenty-first century, we face scarcity in critical resources, the degradation of ecosystem services, and the erosion of the planet's capability to absorb our wastes. Equity issues remain stubbornly difficult to solve. This situation is novel in its speed, its global scale and its threat to the resilience of the Earth System. The advent of the Anthropence, the time interval in which human activities now rival global geophysical processes, suggests that we need to fundamentally alter our relationship with the planet we inhabit. Many approaches could be adopted, ranging from geoengineering solutions that purposefully manipulate parts of the Earth System to becoming active stewards of our own life support system. The Anthropocene is a reminder that the Holocene, during which complex human societies have developed, has been a stable, accommodating environment and is the only state of the Earth System that we know for sure can support contemporary society. The need to achieve effective planetary stewardship is urgent. As we go further into the Anthropocene, we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return.     

Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.     

Expansion of Canopy-Forming Willows Over the Twentieth Century on Herschel Island,Yukon Territory,Canada

Canopy-forming shrubs are reported to be increasing at sites around the circumpolar Arctic. Our results indicate expansion in canopy cover and height of willows on Herschel Island located at 70° north on the western Arctic coast of the Yukon Territory. We examined historic photographs, repeated vegetation surveys, and conducted monitoring of long-term plots and found evidence of increases of each of the dominant canopy-forming willow species (Salix richardsonii, Salix glauca and Salix pulchra), during the twentieth century. A simple model of patch initiation indicates that the majority of willow patches for each of these species became established between 1910 and 1960, with stem ages and maximum growth rates indicating that some patches could have established as late as the 1980s. Collectively, these results suggest that willow species are increasing in canopy cover and height on Herschel Island. We did not find evidence that expansion of willow patches is currently limited by herbivory, disease, or growing conditions.     

PCDD/F formation from oxy-PAH precursors in waste incinerator flyash

The yield of PCDD/F in relation to the presence of oxygenated PAH in model waste incinerator flyash has been investigated in a fixed bed laboratory scale reactor. Experiments were undertaken by thermal treatment of the model flyash at 250 and 350 °C under a simulated flue gas stream for 2 h. After reaction, the PCDD/F content of the reacted flyash and the PCDD/F released into the exhaust gas, and subsequently trapped by XAD-II resin in a down-stream condensation system were analyzed. The PAHs investigated were, dibenzofuran and benzo[b]naphtho[2,3-d]furan and were spiked onto the model flyash as reactant precursors for PCDD/F formation. The results showed significant formation of furans from both of the PAH investigated, however except from some highly chlorinated dioxin congeners, the formation of dioxins was not so common. Benzonaphthofuran was significantly more reactive than dibenzofuran in PCDD/F formation, in spite of the fact that dibenzofuran is structurally more similar to that of PCDD/F. Thus, there was no clear attribution between the chemical structure of PAH used and the formation of PCDD/F. There were considerable differences between the yields of PCDD/F congeners in the gaseous species and those in the reacted flyash under the same operational conditions. The concentration of PCDD/Fs was reduced at the higher reaction temperature of 350 °C; however, the higher temperature resulted in the majority of the PCDD/F formed on the flyash being released into the gas phase.     

Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO₂ emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.     

Detailed and reduced chemistry for hydrogen autoignition

Reaction-rate parameters are given for the detailed chemistry of gas-phase hydrogen combustion, involving 21 reversible elementary steps. It is indicated that, when attention is restricted to specific combustion processes and particular conditions of interest, fewer elementary steps are needed. In particular, for calculating autoignition times over a wide range of pressures for temperatures between about 1000 and 2000 K, five irreversible elementary steps suffice, yielding a remarkable reduction in complexity. It is explained that, from a mathematical viewpoint, in terms of global reaction-kinetic mechanisms, the hydrogen–oxygen system in principle comprises only six overall steps. Rational reduced chemical mechanisms for hydrogen combustion therefore necessarily must have fewer than six overall steps. For autoignition over the range of conditions specified above, ignition times can be determined accurately by considering, in addition to an elementary initiation step and an elementary termination step, at most three overall steps for reaction intermediaries, which reduce to two for very fuel-lean conditions and to one for stoichiometric or fuel-rich conditions. The resulting reductions can simplify computations that need to be performed in risk analyses for hydrogen storage and utilization.     

Land management impacts on dairy-derived dissolved organic carbon in ground water

Dairy operations have the potential to elevate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) levels in ground water, where it may interact with organic and inorganic contaminants, fuel denitrification, and may present problems for drinking water treatment. Total and percent bioavailable DOC and total and carbon-specific trihalomethane (THM) formation potential (TTHMFP and STHMFP, respectively) were determined for shallow ground water samples from beneath a dairy farm in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Sixteen wells influenced by specific land management areas were sampled over 3 yr. Measured DOC concentrations were significantly elevated over the background as measured at an upgradient monitoring well, ranging from 13 to 55 mg L(-1) in wells downgradient from wastewater ponds, 8 to 30 mg L(-1) in corral wells, 5 to 12 mg L(-1) in tile drains, and 4 to 15 mg L(-1) in wells associated with manured fields. These DOC concentrations were at the upper range or greatly exceeded concentrations in most surface water bodies used as drinking water sources in California. DOC concentrations in individual wells varied by up to a factor of two over the duration of this study, indicating a dynamic system of sources and degradation. DOC bioavailability over 21 d ranged from 3 to 10%, comparable to surface water systems and demonstrating the potential for dairy-derived DOC to influence dissolved oxygen concentrations (nearly all wells were hypoxic to anoxic) and denitrification. TTHMFP measurements across all management units ranged from 141 to 1731 microg L(-1), well in excess of the maximum contaminant level of 80 microg L(-1) established by the Environmental Protection Agency. STHMFP measurements demonstrated over twofold variation ( approximately 4 to approximately 8 mmol total THM/mol DOC) across the management areas, indicating the dependence of reactivity on DOC composition. The results indicate that land management strongly controls the quantity and quality of DOC to reach shallow ground water and hence should be considered when managing ground water resources and in any efforts to mitigate contamination of ground water with carbon-based contaminants, such as pesticides and pharmaceuticals.     

Inorganic arsenic levels in baby rice are of concern

Inorganic arsenic is a chronic exposure carcinogen. Analysis of UK baby rice revealed a median inorganic arsenic content (n = 17) of 0.11 mg/kg. By plotting inorganic arsenic against total arsenic, it was found that inorganic concentrations increased linearly up to 0.25 mg/kg total arsenic, then plateaued at 0.16 mg/kg at higher total arsenic concentrations. Inorganic arsenic intake by babies (4-12 months) was considered with respect to current dietary ingestion regulations. It was found that 35% of the baby rice samples analysed would be illegal for sale in China which has regulatory limit of 0.15 mg/kg inorganic arsenic. EU and US food regulations on arsenic are non-existent. When baby inorganic arsenic intake from rice was considered, median consumption (expressed as μg/kg/d) was higher than drinking water maximum exposures predicted for adults in these regions when water intake was expressed on a bodyweight basis.     

Dispersion modeling to compare alternative technologies for odor remediation at swine facilities

The effectiveness of 18 alternative technologies for reducing odor dispersion at and beyond the boundary of swine facilities was assessed in conjunction with an initiative sponsored through agreements between the Attorney General of North Carolina and Smithfield Foods, Premium Standard Farms, and Frontline Farmers. The trajectory and spatial distribution of odor emitted at each facility were modeled at 200 and 400 m downwind from each site under two meteorological conditions (daytime and nighttime) using a Eulerian-Lagrangian model. To predict the dispersion of odor downwind, the geographical area containing the odorant sources at each facility was partitioned into 10-m2 grids on the basis of satellite photographs and architectural drawings. Relative odorant concentrations were assigned to each grid point on the basis of intensity measurements made by the trained odor panel at each facility using a 9-point rating scale. The results of the modeling indicated that odor did not extend significantly beyond 400 m downwind of any of the test sites during the daytime when the layer of air above the earth's surface is usually turbulent. However, modeling indicated that odor from all full-scale farms extended beyond 400 m onto neighboring property in the evenings when deep surface cooling through long-wave radiation to space produces a stable (nocturnal) boundary layer. The results also indicated that swine housing, independent of waste management type, plays a significant role in odor downwind, as do odor sources of moderate to moderately high intensity that emanate from a large surface area such as a lagoon. Human odor assessments were utilized for modeling rather than instrument measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), hydrogen sulfide, ammonia, or particulates less than 10 microm in diameter (PM10) because these physical measurements obtained simultaneously with human panel ratings were not found to accurately predict human odor intensity in the field.     

Innovative solutions for averting a potential resource crisis—the case of one-person households in England and Wales

This paper seeks to test the hypothesis that growth in one-person households will increase the domestic consumption of energy, land and household goods in England and Wales. It concludes that if current consumer behaviour of one-person households persists there will be a significant increase in the consumption of all three resources in the future. However, it argues that that many opportunities exist in England and Wales for tackling this problem. For example the new housing programme, increasing ability amongst one-person households to afford “green alternatives” and the search amongst some one-person households for alternative lifestyles (which could be potentially more resource efficient). The paper suggests that providing one-person households with opportunities to live in more resource efficient housing and adopt pro-environmental behaviour could significantly reduce their future environmental impact. Various design, fiscal and awareness-raising solutions are presented in the paper and their viability is assessed. These include ecological homes, collective housing forms, occupancy tax, relocation packages, educational programmes and targeted advertising campaigns. The paper proposes that using a combination of these more innovative solutions to the problem could significantly reduce the future environmental impact of one-person households.