Multi-stage sampling for large scale natural resources surveys: a case study of rice and waterfowl

Large-scale sample surveys to estimate abundance and distribution of organisms and their habitats are increasingly important in ecological studies. Multi-stage sampling (MSS) is especially suited to large-scale surveys because of the natural clustering of resources. To illustrate an application, we: (1) designed a stratified MSS to estimate late autumn abundance (kg/ha) of rice seeds in harvested fields as food for waterfowl wintering in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV); (2) investigated options for improving the MSS design; and (3) compared statistical and cost efficiency of MSS to simulated simple random sampling (SRS). During 2000-2002, we sampled 25-35 landowners per year, 1 or 2 fields per landowner per year, and measured seed mass in 10 soil cores collected within each field. Analysis of variance components and costs for each stage of the survey design indicated that collecting 10 soil cores per field was near the optimum of 11-15, whereas sampling >1 field per landowner provided few benefits because data from fields within landowners were highly correlated. Coefficients of variation (CV) of annual estimates of rice abundance ranged from 0.23 to 0.31 and were limited by variation among landowners and the number of landowners sampled. Design effects representing the statistical efficiency of MSS relative to SRS ranged from 3.2 to 9.0, and simulations indicated SRS would cost, on average, 1.4 times more than MSS because clustering of sample units in MSS decreased travel costs. We recommend MSS as a potential sampling strategy for large-scale natural resource surveys and specifically for future surveys of the availability of rice as food for waterfowl in the MAV and similar areas.     

Current Levels and Management of Solid Wastes in Nigeria

Solid waste is of serious concern in developing countries because of its high rate of generation and the low‐end quality of its management. Inefficient handling of solid wastes may result in deterioration of environmental quality, but it can also result in loss of potential resources. This study reviews current solid waste generation and management in Nigeria and the need for an effective collection, recovery, and recycling policy. Our review is based on literature searches and personal field surveys. Observations showed that uncontrolled electronic waste (e‐waste), agricultural‐waste (agro‐waste), scrap metals, waste polymers, and waste from the transportation sector are prevalent in Nigeria. Recent collection rates were less than 50% of the total solid waste generated (i.e., approximately 40% was collected). With an effective collection system and appropriate policies, the abundance of solid waste in the country could present material recovery and recycling opportunities that would boost the economy and move Nigeria closer to sustainable resource management.     

Mercury bioaccumulation and risk to three waterbird foraging guilds is influenced by foraging ecology and breeding stage

We evaluated mercury (Hg) in five waterbird species representing three foraging guilds in San Francisco Bay, CA. Fish-eating birds (Forster's and Caspian terns) had the highest Hg concentrations in thier tissues, but concentrations in an invertebrate-foraging shorebird (black-necked stilt) were also elevated. Foraging habitat was important for Hg exposure as illustrated by within-guild differences, where species more associated with marshes and salt ponds had higher concentrations than those more associated with open-bay and tidal mudflats. Importantly, Hg concentrations increased with time spent in the estuary. Surf scoter concentrations tripled over six months, whereas Forster's terns showed an up to 5-fold increase between estuary arrival and breeding. Breeding waterbirds were at elevated risk of Hg-induced reproductive impairment, particularly Forster's terns, in which 48% of breeding birds were at high risk due to their Hg levels. Our results highlight the importance of habitat and exposure timing, in addition to trophic position, on waterbird Hg bioaccumulation and risk.     

Review of Russian-language studies on radionuclide behaviour in agricultural animals: part 4. Transfer to poultry

Data on radionuclide transfer to domestic chickens and ducks obtained from research performed in the former Soviet Union were reviewed to provide transfer coefficient values (Ff) to poultry and edible egg contents. The majority of the data are from experiments with ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs, reflecting the importance of these radionuclides after global fallout and major radiation accidents. Data for ³H, ⁵⁴Mn, ⁵⁹Fe, ⁶⁰Co, ²²Na ⁶⁵Zn, ¹³¹I and U are also given. The values derived have been compared with those in the current IAEA Handbook of parameter values for the prediction of radionuclide transfer in temperate environments (TRS 364) and the recent revision which incorporates the values from this paper. The Russian-language data give improved estimates for many radionuclides and the revised handbook is now based on the better quality data given for chronic administration.     

Review of Russian language studies on radionuclide behaviour in agricultural animals: 3. Transfer to muscle

Over 150 publications reporting studies conducted in the former USSR were reviewed to provide transfer coefficients (F_f) to the muscle of domestic animals from experiments using chronic administration, often for long timescales in large scale experiments. Only a few of these studies were made available in the English language literature or taken into account in international reviews. The values derived have been compared with expected values reported by the IAEA's Handbook of parameter values for the prediction of radionuclide transfer in temperate environments (TRS 364) where possible. The information presented here has been used in the current updating of parameters recommended for environmental assessments by the IAEA. Many of the reported values are for Sr due to the Mayak accident and Cs due to the Chernobyl accident. Nevertheless, the reported data for a wide range of radionuclides, in particular for Ru, Sb, and Zn markedly improve the extent of available data.     

Radionuclide transfer to animal products: revised recommended transfer coefficient values

A compilation has been undertaken of data which can be used to derive animal product transfer coefficients for radionuclides, including an extensive review of Russian language information. The resultant database has been used to provide recommended transfer coefficient values for a range of radionuclides to (i) cow, sheep and goat milk, (ii) meat (muscle) of cattle, sheep, goats, pigs and poultry and (iii) eggs. The values are used in a new IAEA handbook on transfer parameters which replaces that referred to as ‘TRS 364’. The paper outlines the approaches and procedures used to identify and collate data, and assumptions used. There are notable differences between the TRS 364 ‘expected’ values and the recommended values in the revised Handbook from the new database. Of the recommended values, three milk values are at least an order of magnitude higher than the TRS 364 values (Cr, Pu (cow) Pu (sheep)) and one milk value is lower (Ni (cow)). For meat, four values (Am, Cd, Sb (beef) I (pork)) are at least an order of magnitude higher than the TRS 364 values and eight values are at least an order of magnitude lower (Ru, Pu (beef), Ru, Sr, Zn (sheep), Ru, Sr (pork), Mn (poultry)). Many data gaps remain.     

Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

Anticipatory capacity in response to global change across an extreme elevation gradient in the Ica Basin,Peru

Regional Environmental Change - Mountainous areas with extreme elevation gradients and corresponding ranges of biophysical and socioeconomic conditions are highly vulnerable to global change. We...     

Modeling cold soak evaporative vapor emissions from gasoline-powered automobiles using a newly developed method

ABSTRACT

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) evaporate and vent from a vehicle’s fuel tank to its evaporative control system when the vehicle is both driven and parked. VOCs making it past the control system are emissions. Driving and parking activity, fuel volatility, and temperature strongly affect vapor generation and the effectiveness of control technologies, and the wide variability in these factors and the sensitivity of emissions to these factors make it difficult to estimate evaporative emissions at the macro level. Established modeling methods, such as COPERT and MOVES, estimate evaporative emissions by assuming a constant in-use canister condition and consequently contain critical uncertainty when real conditions deviate from that standard condition. In this study, we have developed a new method to model canister capacity as a representative variable, and estimated emissions for all parking events based on semi-empirical functions derived from real-world activity data and laboratory measurements. As compared to chamber measurements collected during this study, the bias of the MOVES diurnal tank venting simulation ranges from ?100% to 129%, while the bias for our method’s simulation is 1.4% to 8.5%. Our modeling method is compared to the COPERT and MOVES models by estimating evaporative emissions from a Euro-3/4/5 and a Tier 2 vehicle in conditions representative for Chicago, IL, and Guangzhou, China. Estimates using the COPERT and MOVES methods differ from our method by ?56% to 120% and ?100% to 25%, respectively. The study highlights the importance for continued modeling improvement of the anthropogenic evaporative emission inventory and for tightened regulatory standards.

Implications: The COPERT and MOVES methodologies contain large uncertainties for estimating evaporative emissions, while our modeling method is developed based on chamber measurements to estimate evaporative emissions and can properly address those uncertainties. Modeling results suggested an urgent need to complete evaporative emissions inventories and also indicated that tightening evaporative emission standards is urgently needed, especially for warm areas.