Modeling cold soak evaporative vapor emissions from gasoline-powered automobiles using a newly developed method

ABSTRACT

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) evaporate and vent from a vehicle’s fuel tank to its evaporative control system when the vehicle is both driven and parked. VOCs making it past the control system are emissions. Driving and parking activity, fuel volatility, and temperature strongly affect vapor generation and the effectiveness of control technologies, and the wide variability in these factors and the sensitivity of emissions to these factors make it difficult to estimate evaporative emissions at the macro level. Established modeling methods, such as COPERT and MOVES, estimate evaporative emissions by assuming a constant in-use canister condition and consequently contain critical uncertainty when real conditions deviate from that standard condition. In this study, we have developed a new method to model canister capacity as a representative variable, and estimated emissions for all parking events based on semi-empirical functions derived from real-world activity data and laboratory measurements. As compared to chamber measurements collected during this study, the bias of the MOVES diurnal tank venting simulation ranges from ?100% to 129%, while the bias for our method’s simulation is 1.4% to 8.5%. Our modeling method is compared to the COPERT and MOVES models by estimating evaporative emissions from a Euro-3/4/5 and a Tier 2 vehicle in conditions representative for Chicago, IL, and Guangzhou, China. Estimates using the COPERT and MOVES methods differ from our method by ?56% to 120% and ?100% to 25%, respectively. The study highlights the importance for continued modeling improvement of the anthropogenic evaporative emission inventory and for tightened regulatory standards.

Implications: The COPERT and MOVES methodologies contain large uncertainties for estimating evaporative emissions, while our modeling method is developed based on chamber measurements to estimate evaporative emissions and can properly address those uncertainties. Modeling results suggested an urgent need to complete evaporative emissions inventories and also indicated that tightening evaporative emission standards is urgently needed, especially for warm areas.     

Quantification of ionophores in aged poultry litter using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

Veterinary anticoccidials, biochemically known as ionophores, are widely used in poultry feed at therapeutic levels to treat Coccidiosis and at sub-therapeutic levels for growth- promotion. Commonly used ionophores in the US poultry industry are monensin, salinomycin, lasalocid and narasin. There is an increasing concern regarding the persistence of these anticoccidials in the environment. However, little attention has been directed to methods development for quantitatively measuring ionophores in complex environmental matrices such as poultry litters that are land applied. Here, we describe a rapid and sensitive liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS)-based method developed for simultaneous quantification of monensin, lasalocid, salinomycin, and narasin in aged poultry litter samples. Results show significant level of monensin (97.8 ± 3.2?μg kg(-1)), lasalocid (19.2 ± 6.6?μg kg(-1)), salinomycin (70 ± 2.7?μg kg(-1)) and narasin (57.3 ± 2.6?μg kg(-1)) in poultry litter stored for over three years at < 5°C. Our findings indicate that even after several years of unmanaged storage of poultry litter, ionophores may continue to persist in this matrix, raising the possibility of prolonged release into the environment.     

Testing the feasibility of a hypothetical whaling‐conservation permit market in Norway

A cap‐and‐trade system for managing whale harvests represents a potentially useful approach to resolve the current gridlock in international whale management. The establishment of whale permit markets, open to both whalers and conservationists, could reveal the strength of conservation demand, about which little is known. This lack of knowledge makes it difficult to predict the outcome of a hypothetical whale permit market. We developed a bioeconomic model to evaluate the influence of economic uncertainty about demand for whale conservation or harvest. We used simulations over a wide range of parameterizations of whaling and conservation demands to examine the potential ecological consequences of the establishment of a whale permit market in Norwegian waters under bounded (but substantial) economic uncertainty. Uncertainty variables were slope of whaling and conservation demand, participation level of conservationists and their willingness to pay for whale conservation, and functional forms of demand, including linear, quadratic, and log‐linear forms. A whale‐conservation market had the potential to yield a wide range of conservation and harvest outcomes, the most likely outcomes were those in which conservationists bought all whale permits.     

The drivers of risk to water security in Shanghai

Big cities are often said to have big water problems, and Shanghai is no exception. In this paper, we examine and compare the influence of the major factors that give rise to the risk of water insecurity in Shanghai. There is an extensive and diverse literature on these issues, dealt with in isolation, and here, we provide a synthesis of the literature, together with our own assessments and calculations, to assess what are the risks to Shanghai’s water supply and what is our degree of confidence in this assessment. We describe the systems that supply water to the city, and past and future changes in the systems, including changes in the glaciers that supply some water to the river, changes in climate, changes in land use, the construction of dams, and water diversions. We show how, at the same time as Shanghai is increasing its dependence on the Yangtze river, water diversions and sea level rise are increasing the risk that this water will be too saline to consume at certain times of the year. This analysis suggests that most of the major drivers of the risk to water security in Shanghai are within the power of environmental managers to control.     

Conservation Through the Economics Lens

Although conservation is an inherently transdisciplinary issue, there is much to be gained from examining the problem through an economics lens. Three benefits of such an approach are laid out in this paper. First, many of the drivers of environmental degradation are economic in origin, and the better we understand them, the better we can conserve ecosystems by reducing degradation. Second, economics offers us a when-to-stop rule, which is equivalent to a when-to-conserve rule. All economic production is based on the transformation of raw materials provided by nature. As the economic system grows in physical size, it necessarily displaces and degrades ecosystems. The marginal benefits of economic growth are diminishing, and the marginal costs of ecological degradation are increasing. Conceptually, we should stop economic growth and focus on conservation when the two are equal. Third, economics can help us understand how to efficiently and justly allocate resources toward conservation, and this paper lays out some basic principles for doing so. Unfortunately, the field of economics is dominated by neoclassical economics, which builds an analytical framework based on questionable assumptions and takes an excessively disciplinary and formalistic approach. Conservation is a complex problem, and analysis from individual disciplinary lenses can make important contributions to conservation only when the resulting insights are synthesized into a coherent vision of the whole. Fortunately, there are a number of emerging transdisciplines, such as ecological economics and environmental management, that are dedicated to this task.     

The relationship between job experiences and psychological distress: A structural equation approach

Using structural equations, we estimated the relationship between employees' experiences of seven job conditions, that have been identified as potential job stressors, and psychological distress in a random sample of 504 full-time employed men and women in dual-earner couples. The seven job conditions were: skill discretion, decision authority, schedule control, job demands, pay adequacy, job security, and relations with supervisor. We found that two job conditions — skill discretion and job demands — were related to psychological distress, whereas five other conditions were not. These findings lend partial support to Karasek's job demand — job control model. In our analysis, skill discretion, one of the two components of job control (referred to jointly as decision latitude) was related to distress, however, decision authority, the second component, was not. A third aspect of control, schedule control, was also unrelated to distress. For full-time employed women and men in dual-earner couples, the additive effects of feeling concerned about having to do dull, monotonous work and having to work under pressure of time and conflicting demands were associated with psychological distress. Finally, the magnitude of the relationships between these job experiences and psychological distress did not differ between men and women.     

US Government Natural Disaster Assistance: Historical Analysis and a Proposal for the Future

Governments often provide grants or low-interest loans to disaster victims. Yet these programmes have proven to be quite costly. In addition, questions have been raised about associated behavioural incentives. Conceptually, government disaster insurance programmes should be more efficient, consistent and equitable than ex post facto disaster relief in the form of grants and loans. Yet the performance of government disaster insurance programmes has been mixed, at best. This article reviews the history of US federal natural disaster assistance to individuals and concludes with a recommendation for a new government role in the provision of disaster insurance.