Rainfall trends in twentieth century over Kerala,India

Attempts were made to study temporal variation in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall over Kerala, India, during the period from 1871 to 2005. Longterm changes in rainfall determined by Man-Kendall rank statistics and linear trend. The analysis revealed significant decrease in southwest monsoon rainfall while increase in post-monsoon season over the State of Kerala which is popularly known as the “Gateway of summer monsoon”. Rainfall during winter and summer seasons showed insignificant increasing trend. Rainfall during June and July showed significant decreasing trend while increasing trend in January, February and April. Hydel power generation and water availability during summer months are the concern in the State due to rainfall decline in June and July, which are the rainiest months. At the same time, majority of plantation crops are likely to benefit due to increase in rainfall during the post-monsoon season if they are stable and prolonged.     

First REP-LECOTOX Workshop—ecotoxicogenomics: the challenge of integrating genomics/proteomics/metabolomics into aquatic and terrestrial ecotoxicology

Environmental Science and Pollution Research -     

Atmospheric composition change research: Time to go post-normal?

For more than two decades a number of frameworks for scientific knowledge production are being proposed by science and technology researchers. They all advocate an extended involvement of non-specialists, in particular when it comes to knowledge production applicable to practical societal problems. We look to what extent these new frameworks have taken ground within a particular research community: the ACCENT Network of Excellence which coordinates European atmospheric chemistry and physics research applicable to air pollution and climate change. We did so by stimulating a debate through a “blog”, a survey and in-depth interviews with ACCENT scientists about the interaction between science, policy making and civil society, to which a great deal of ACCENT member contributed in writing or verbally. Most of them had interactions with policy makers and/or the general public, and they generally believe that interactions with spheres other than the scientific are needed. While such interactions give personal insight and satisfaction, they seem to have little impact on the goals and the practice of the scientific work itself. Extended frameworks of science production that go beyond the disciplinary mode seem to emerge at the level of individual scientists, yet they still need to find their way to the level of scientific project management. In this paper we discuss the justifications and barriers to implement a higher degree of extended knowledge integration in applied science projects such as ACCENT. It is felt that the community of atmospheric chemists and physicists is mature for such an implementation and recommendations are given to help and make this happen.     

Environmental conditions enhance toxicant effects in larvae of the ground beetle Pterostichus oblongopunctatus (Coleoptera: Carabidae)

The wide geographical distribution of ground beetles Pterostichus oblongopunctatus makes them very likely to be exposed to several environmental stressors at the same time. These could include both climatic stress and exposure to chemicals. Our previous studies demonstrated that the combined effect of nickel (Ni) and chlorpyrifos (CHP) was temperature (T)-dependent in adult P. oblongopunctatus. Frequently the different developmental stages of an organism are differently sensitive to single stressors, and for a number of reasons, such as differences in exposure routes, their interactions may also take different forms. Because of this, we studied the effects of the same factors on the beetle larvae. The results showed that all factors, as well as their interactions, influenced larvae survival. The synergistic effect of Ni and CPF was temperature-dependent and the effect of Ni × T interaction on the proportion of emerged imagines indicated stronger toxicity of Ni at 25 °C than at 10 °C.     

Validation studies of turbulence closure schemes for high resolutions in mesoscale meteorological models – A case of gas dispersion at the local scale

This work is a contribution to a large project, aimed at the development of an advanced environmental assessment modelling system to be used in Japan. The modelling system here considered consisted of the RAMS and HYPACT coupled models. The RAMS code was modified to properly simulate local scale phenomena using a fine mesh size of 250 m. In this direction, the main aim here was to investigate the effect of the choice of the turbulence closure scheme on the dispersion of pollutants. Our modified version of the RAMS/HYPACT model chain was validated using field experiments which were carried out by the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) in the area of Mt. Tsukuba (Japan). The mean flow, turbulence and concentration fields obtained using two alternative turbulence closure schemes are compared. A discussion on the different performances of the turbulence closures is presented and the influence of the closure schemes over the plume dispersion is investigated.     

Meteorological variability in NO2 and PM10 concentrations in the Netherlands and its relation with EU limit values

The extent of the exceedance of the EU limit values for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and particulate matter (PM₁₀) concentrations within the Netherlands is expected to decrease significantly, in the coming years. Whether limit values will actually be exceeded, in the next decade, depends not only on European, national and local policies, but also on the effects of inevitable interannual meteorological fluctuations. An analysis of model calculations and measurements yields variations (1 sigma) in the annual average concentration of about 5% for NO₂ and 9% for PM₁₀, due to meteorological fluctuations. These deviations from long-term average concentrations affect assessments of future levels, set against limit values. For instance, an NO₂ concentration of 39 μg m^?3, estimated for a given year with long-term average meteorology, indicates that it is likely (chance >66%) that the limit value of 40 μg m^?3 will not be exceeded in that particular year. At the same time, the estimation also indicates, for example, that this situation is unlikely (change <33%) to continue for three years in a row. However, with an estimated concentration of 38 μg m^?3, it is likely that the limit value will not be exceeded for three years in a row. The limit value for the daily average PM₁₀ concentration is equivalent to an annual average of about 32 μg m^?3. This threshold is unlikely to be exceeded for three years in a row, when an annual average concentration of 29 μg m^?3 is estimated. Interannual variations in concentrations of NO₂ and PM₁₀ are linked to large-scale meteorological fluctuations. Therefore, similar results can be expected for other European countries.     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves

The designation of no‐take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.     

Characterizing the Width of Amphibian Movements During Postbreeding Migration

Habitat linkages can help maintain connectivity of animal populations in developed landscapes. However, the lack of empirical data on the width of lateral movements (i.e., the zigzagging of individuals as they move from one point to point another) makes determining the width of such linkages challenging. We used radiotracking data from wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) in a managed forest in Maine (U.S.A.) to characterize movement patterns of populations and thus inform planning for the width of wildlife corridors. For each individual, we calculated the polar coordinates of all locations, estimated the vector sum of the polar coordinates, and measured the distance from each location to the vector sum. By fitting a Gaussian distribution over a histogram of these distances, we created a population‐level probability density function and estimated the 50th and 95th percentiles to determine the width of lateral movement as individuals progressed from the pond to upland habitat. For spotted salamanders 50% of lateral movements were ≤13 m wide and 95% of movements were ≤39 m wide. For wood frogs, 50% of lateral movements were ≤17 m wide and 95% of movements were ≤ 51 m wide. For both species, those individuals that traveled the farthest from the pond also displayed the greatest lateral movement. Our results serve as a foundation for spatially explicit conservation planning for pond‐breeding amphibians in areas undergoing development. Our technique can also be applied to movement data from other taxa to aid in designing habitat linkages. Caracterización de la Amplitud de Movimiento de Anfibios durante la Migración Pos‐Reproducción     

Predictive Model of Avian Electrocution Risk on Overhead Power Lines

Electrocution on overhead power structures negatively affects avian populations in diverse ecosystems worldwide, contributes to the endangerment of raptor populations in Europe and Africa, and is a major driver of legal action against electric utilities in North America. We investigated factors associated with avian electrocutions so poles that are likely to electrocute a bird can be identified and retrofitted prior to causing avian mortality. We used historical data from southern California to identify patterns of avian electrocution by voltage, month, and year to identify species most often killed by electrocution in our study area and to develop a predictive model that compared poles where an avian electrocution was known to have occurred (electrocution poles) with poles where no known electrocution occurred (comparison poles). We chose variables that could be quantified by personnel with little training in ornithology or electric systems. Electrocutions were more common at distribution voltages (≤33 kV) and during breeding seasons and were more commonly reported after a retrofitting program began. Red‐tailed Hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) (n = 265) and American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) (n = 258) were the most commonly electrocuted species. In the predictive model, 4 of 14 candidate variables were required to distinguish electrocution poles from comparison poles: number of jumpers (short wires connecting energized equipment), number of primary conductors, presence of grounding, and presence of unforested unpaved areas as the dominant nearby land cover. When tested against a sample of poles not used to build the model, our model distributed poles relatively normally across electrocution‐risk values and identified the average risk as higher for electrocution poles relative to comparison poles. Our model can be used to reduce avian electrocutions through proactive identification and targeting of high‐risk poles for retrofitting. Modelo Predictivo del Riesgo de Electrocución de Aves en Líneas Eléctricas Elevadas