Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model1

Harshburger, Brian J., Von P. Walden, Karen S. Humes, Brandon C. Moore, Troy R. Blandford, and Albert Rango, 2012. Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 643‐655. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00642.x Abstract: As water demand increases in the western United States, so does the need for accurate streamflow forecasts. We describe a method for generating ensemble streamflow forecasts (1‐15 days) using an enhanced version of the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). Forecasts are produced for three snowmelt‐dominated basins in Idaho. Model inputs are derived from meteorological forecasts, snow cover imagery, and surface observations from Snowpack Telemetry stations. The model performed well at lead times up to 7 days, but has significant predictability out to 15 days. The timing of peak flow and the streamflow volume are captured well by the model, but the peak‐flow value is typically low. The model performance was assessed by computing the coefficient of determination (R²), percentage of volume difference (Dv%), and a skill score that quantifies the usefulness of the forecasts relative to climatology. The average R² value for the mean ensemble is >0.8 for all three basins for lead times up to seven days. The Dv% is fairly unbiased (within ±10%) out to seven days in two of the basins, but the model underpredicts Dv% in the third. The average skill scores for all basins are >0.6 for lead times up to seven days, indicating that the ensemble model outperforms climatology. These results validate the usefulness of the ensemble forecasting approach for basins of this type, suggesting that the ensemble version of SRM might be applied successfully to other basins in the Intermountain West.     

Western Land Managers will Need all Available Tools for Adapting to Climate Change,Including Grazing: A Critique of Beschta et al.

In a previous article, Beschta et al. (Environ Manag 51(2):474–491, 2013) argue that grazing by large ungulates (both native and domestic) should be eliminated or greatly reduced on western public lands to reduce potential climate change impacts. The authors did not present a balanced synthesis of the scientific literature, and their publication is more of an opinion article. Their conclusions do not reflect the complexities associated with herbivore grazing. Because grazing is a complex ecological process, synthesis of the scientific literature can be a challenge. Legacy effects of uncontrolled grazing during the homestead era further complicate analysis of current grazing impacts. Interactions of climate change and grazing will depend on the specific situation. For example, increasing atmospheric CO₂ and temperatures may increase accumulation of fine fuels (primarily grasses) and thus increase wildfire risk. Prescribed grazing by livestock is one of the few management tools available for reducing fine fuel accumulation. While there are certainly points on the landscape where herbivore impacts can be identified, there are also vast grazed areas where impacts are minimal. Broad scale reduction of domestic and wild herbivores to help native plant communities cope with climate change will be unnecessary because over the past 20–50 years land managers have actively sought to bring populations of native and domestic herbivores in balance with the potential of vegetation and soils. To cope with a changing climate, land managers will need access to all available vegetation management tools, including grazing.     

Ambient concentrations of airborne endotoxin in two cities in the interior of British Columbia, Canada

This study measured and analyzed the outdoor airborne endotoxin concentration, on particulate matter (PM2·? and PM1?), for two cities in the interior of British Columbia, Canada. Samples were collected throughout one seasonal cycle, from October 2005 to September 2006. It was found that concentrations were generally highest in the summer and fall, and lowest in the winter and spring. Temperature and relative humidity were found to be most influential, with highest endotoxin concentrations recorded during warm periods and moderate relative humidity (35 to 75 percent). No clear association of concentration with wind direction was observed. Results were comparable between the two cities considered in this study, and concentrations were similar to or slightly higher than those reported by other studies considering urban locations. Endotoxin concentration was also found to be positively associated with agricultural dust sources identified by a source apportionment study conducted at one of the sampling locations.     

Use of computed tomography imaging for quantifying coarse roots, rhizomes, peat, and particle densities in marsh soils

Computed tomography (CT) imaging has been used to describe and quantify subtidal, benthic animals such as polychaetes, amphipods, and shrimp. Here, for the first time, CT imaging is used to quantify wet mass of coarse roots, rhizomes, and peat in cores collected from organic-rich (Jamaica Bay, New York) and mineral (North Inlet, South Carolina) Spartina alterniflora soils. Image analysis software was coupled with the CT images to measure abundance and diameter of the coarse roots and rhizomes in marsh soils. Previously, examination of marsh roots and rhizomes was limited to various hand-sieving methods that were often time-consuming, tedious, and error prone. CT imaging can discern the coarse roots, rhizomes, and peat based on their varying particle densities. Calibration rods composed of materials with standard densities (i.e., air, water, colloidal silica, and glass) were used to operationally define the specific x-ray attenuations of the coarse roots, rhizomes, and peat in the marsh cores. Significant regression relationships were found between the CT-determined wet mass of the coarse roots and rhizomes and the hand-sieved dry mass of the coarse roots and rhizomes in both the organic-rich and mineral marsh soils. There was also a significant relationship between the soil percentage organic matter and the CT-determined peat particle density among organic-rich and mineral soils. In only the mineral soils, there was a significant relationship between the soil percentage organic matter and the CT-determined peat wet mass. Using CT imaging, significant positive nitrogen fertilization effects on the wet masses of the coarse roots, rhizomes, and peat, and the abundance and diameter of rhizomes were measured in the mineral soils. In contrast, a deteriorating salt marsh island in Jamaica Bay had significantly less mass of coarse roots and rhizomes at depth (10-20 cm), and a significantly lower abundance of roots and rhizomes compared with a stable marsh. However, the diameters of the rhizomes in the deteriorating marsh were significantly greater than in the stable marsh. CT imaging is a rapid approach to quantify coarse roots, rhizomes, peat, and soil particle densities in coastal wetlands, but the method is unable at this time to quantify fine roots.     

Repetitive Strain in Nonrepetitive Work: A Case Study

In a Québec factory, a woman in a nontraditional job suffered from epicondylitis whereas her male coworkers were unaffected. A study was undertaken in order to enumerate the operations at risk for epicondylitis. Workers were interviewed in order to identify difficult operations and systematic observations were done over 4 work days. Although tasks were extremely varied, certain movements at risk for epicondylitis were repeated many times. Fifty-three valves were turned against resistance as part of this job, and one valve requiring a particularly difficult movement was turned 20 times in one day. There were at least 61 operations at risk for epicondylitis per day over a 4-day period. Strain on the elbow joint was particularly intense for the woman worker because the design of the workplace gave an advantage to taller workers with larger hands. Although this case study does not permit us to conclude that the worker’s epicondylitis was due to her job, it enables us to suggest that it would be wise to adapt the dimensions of relevant equipment and worksites to a wider range of potential worker sizes. We also raise some questions about the definition of repetitive strain in epidemiological studies. We suggest that it may be necessary to consider not only the cycle time but also the total of forces exerted on a joint in order to study workplace injuries to the musculoskeletal system.     

EVALUATION OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF WATER WITHDRAWALS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1995 TO 20251

To evaluate the long term sustainability of water withdrawals in the United States, a county level analysis of the availability of renewable water resources was conducted, and the magnitudes of human withdrawals from surface water and ground water sources and the stored water requirements during the warmest months of the year were evaluated. Estimates of growth in population and electricity generation were then used to estimate the change in withdrawals assuming that the rates of water use either remain at their current levels (the business as usual scenario) or that they exhibit improvements in efficiency at the same rate as observed over 1975 to 1995 (the improved efficiency scenario). The estimates show several areas, notably the Southwest and major metropolitan areas throughout the United States, as being likely to have significant new storage requirements with the business‐as‐usual scenario, under the condition of average water availability. These new requirements could be substantially eliminated under the improved efficiency scenario, thus indicating the importance of water use efficiency in meeting future requirements. The national assessment identified regions of potential water sustainability concern; these regions can be the subject of more targeted data collection and analyses in the future.     

Seasonal and Flood‐Induced Variations in Groundwater–Surface Water Exchange in a Northern Coldwater Fishery

Groundwater upwelling is important to coldwater fisheries survival. This study used stable isotopes to identify upwelling zones within a watershed, then combined isotope analyses with reach‐scale monitoring to measure surface water–groundwater exchange over time. Research focused on Amity Creek, Minnesota, a basin that exemplifies conditions limiting coldwater species survival along Lake Superior's North Shore where shallow bedrock limits groundwater capacity, lowering baseflows and increasing temperatures. Groundwater‐fed reaches were identified through synoptic isotope sampling, with results highlighting the importance of isolated shallow surficial aquifers (glacially derived sands and gravels) for providing cold baseflow waters. In an alluvial reach, monitoring well results show groundwater was stored in two reservoirs: one that reacts quickly to changes in stream levels, and one that remained isotopically isolated under most flow conditions, but which helps sustain summer baseflows for weeks to months. A 500‐year flood demonstrated the capacity of high‐flow events to alter surface water–groundwater connectivity. The previously isolated reservoir was exchanged or mixed during the flood pulse, while incision lowered the water table for years. The results here provide insight for streams that lack substantial groundwater inputs yet maintain coldwater species at risk in a warming climate and an approach for managers seeking to protect cold baseflow sources.